Down goes the Dow

fisky wrote:... I knew that testing skyrocketed around Thursday so even with no major change in infection rate, we would see a big jump in positive coronavirus cases by Monday. ).

The US is still in the exponential growth phase and there’s no reas to expect the curvature to reverse for at least another week, maybe more. This is getting a whole lot worse before it gets better. Protect your families.

Today me and the spouse went for a walk, holding hands as normal. We are allowed out, so far, for exercise. A guy at a stop light rolled down his window, and visibly furious, yelled at us to separate and keep our distance. This is silly in our case since we sleep in the same bed, but it shows people are terrified. People other than me I mean. I’ve transitioned from concerned to fearful to terrified. I’m hoping when we’ve got through this we will all laugh about how silly I’ve been. And you will all be here to laugh at me. Fingers crossed...

why can't we trade on weekend? wrote:

What I don't get is why were the safe haven stocks destroyed at the close on Friday? Was it all options strike price targeting by the MMs?

For example, PG and CLX took a massive hair cut. They've held up good in this market.

There are not safe. Very high relative to their growth rate. Perception versus reality.

Today, I saw groups of 10 people or more all over the place. In a state with serious restrictions.

No one is taking it seriously enough. Lately single track trails are more crowded than I've ever seen. I avoid all trails and pathways now. So many people out there in close contact.

Think it gets worse. It'll get prolonged because people think this is some holiday. They'll be forced to issue stricter stay at home guidance. I'm also more terrified than I was. We'll be shut in and unable to go outside. Everyone will be saving money. Economy will suffer even more. I pray for a quick recovery. I could be among the unemployed soon. I will raise emergency cash.

the idiot wrote:

fisky wrote:... I knew that testing skyrocketed around Thursday so even with no major change in infection rate, we would see a big jump in positive coronavirus cases by Monday. ).

The US is still in the exponential growth phase and there’s no reas to expect the curvature to reverse for at least another week, maybe more. This is getting a whole lot worse before it gets better. Protect your families.

.

It seems to me that we are getting about 3000 new cases per day. Seems more linear than exponential to me.

why can't we trade on weekend? wrote:

Today, I saw groups of 10 people or more all over the place. In a state with serious restrictions.

No one is taking it seriously enough. Lately single track trails are more crowded than I've ever seen. I avoid all trails and pathways now. So many people out there in close contact.

Think it gets worse. It'll get prolonged because people think this is some holiday. They'll be forced to issue stricter stay at home guidance. I'm also more terrified than I was. We'll be shut in and unable to go outside. Everyone will be saving money. Economy will suffer even more. I pray for a quick recovery. I could be among the unemployed soon. I will raise emergency cash.

You are correct. Here off the beaten path, people are too complacent. Major corporations not, but the masses, not so sure.

There will be a several day lag between the social distancing measures and growth rate, since new cases were likely exposed several days before. At this point it is probably not linar, but not exponential either. Last week I think it took two days to triple (from 3000 to 9000). Exponential growth would continuing tripling every two days or so. That would put us at 27k-Friday, 81k-Sunday.

If we can reach linear growth (same number of new cases per day), then it will be manageable.

It’s amazing that we are all posting on this board during this time in history.

Many of is have been here for a while, and have gotten to sort of know each other online. I’ve got to say, to me it’s kind of like a virtual extended family, I feel kind of like I know you guys.

Yeah we’ve all got our lives, our family and friends—but especially now, we probably frequent this thread more than usual, so in a way we are all going through this together. It is an amazing, exceptional time, not just in the markets but in society and in human history.

And here we are, with each other’s company. I really hope everyone comes out of this ok, and that we all stay intellectually awake through it all. We will all come out with our own take, but this thread will be a part of it for each of us.

I talk like a big shot, but the truth is that all I have are best guesses about how things will go. I am worried about things like social control, freedom, civic commitment, etc, not to mention physical health. None of us here knows how we would respond if infected, any of us could have a hard time for some reason, including me. I really don’t know shlt about this, so I try to talk confidently, but deep down I am anything but.

Hopefully we can all trade insults and false versions of history on the other side of all this. Until then, it’s great to have all you guys posting in what, at least for me, is an extraordinary and uncertain time.

Even Igy?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Stanley Morgan wrote:

Another great Zerohedge article posted by Igy in December 2018.

Boy have you lost a lot of money the last couple of weeks. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving piece of crap.

?

No, I have not lost a lot of money.

And please don’t call me “boy”. ??‍♂️

The bike trail that I run on (near a major city in a state that's supposed to basically be on lock-down) has been more crowded the past week than I've ever seen. I was at a convenience store where they had cones set up inside to mark 6 feet intervals at the register while waiting in line. The guy behind me scoffed at it and walked up to get like an inch behind me. I can understand some of the things, but is that really such a terrible thing?

Also, even if you think it's just the flu, I don't have time for that either, and who does! I'm busier at work now than I've ever been.

Yes, were like one big, happy, disfunctional family! But even disfunctional families have their benefit - they force people to get along.

Fourteen days after serious social distancing and quarantining starts, the new cases per day should stabilize, possibly before. We probably have a few days to a week to go.

Maserati wrote:

None of us here knows how we would respond if infected, any of us could have a hard time for some reason, including me.

Speak for yourself Mas! Former D1 Millennial runner checking in here so I know I'm basically invincible.

Just kidding. My mother is a nurse, so I think about my parents and call home frequently these days. They're also right at retirement age, but fortunately bond prices have been so high that their retirement funds are only down 5% for the year (and way way up since they started so many years ago). Portfolio balancing for the win I suppose.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are correct. Here off the beaten path, people are too complacent. Major corporations not, but the masses, not so sure.

The bike trail that I run on (near a major city in a state that's supposed to basically be on lock-down) has been more crowded the past week than I've ever seen. I was at a convenience store where they had cones set up inside to mark 6 feet intervals at the register while waiting in line. The guy behind me scoffed at it and walked up to get like an inch behind me. I can understand some of the things, but is that really such a terrible thing?

Also, even if you think it's just the flu, I don't have time for that either, and who does! I'm busier at work now than I've ever been.

I went to a nursery this afternoon. They had taped the floor at checkout; I would say at ten foot intervals. Then I went to an Ace Hardware Store where it was business as usual. A little too close for comfort. A trip to the Albertsons grocery store the same. Next week I will hunker down again throughout the week, remote into work. I suspect I will not return to the physical office until mid to late April. Same for training with my masters track club.

“Hopefully we can all trade insults and false versions of history on the other side of all this. Until then, it’s great to have all you guys posting in what, at least for me, is an extraordinary and uncertain time.

Even Igy?”

Hope everyone does well. Detector Dude has earned a good dose of Karma.

Valuations do matter, and that was always the point. An academic argument really, but one that attacks the religion of equities. Certainly that cult is being challenged.

“It would be controversial to say that the stock market reaction to the coronavirus would not have been very big had we not been in the middle of an orgy of borrowing, speculation and euphoria. Of course, stocks would have fallen with coronavirus headlines, but it is unlikely they would have crashed the way they did without those exacerbating factors. Furthermore, without enormous underlying imbalances of high corporate debt, the prospect of poor sales would not have driven so many stocks to the verge of collapse.

This aspect of the current crisis has so far gone unreported. But not unmentioned. A few weeks before the crash, Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, issued a dire warning, “I think there are lots of troubles coming,” he said at the Los Angeles-based Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. “There’s too much wretched excess.”

—Jonathan Tepperd

Aye carumba, where to start?!

That last post, Igy, by Jonathan Teppard, seems fair enough, and frankly much more measured in tone than saying that this sell off is due solely to the inbalance in valuations. Let's leave it at that.

Here in Seattle, there are so freakin' many people out taking walks and riding bikes. No vehicular traffic and almost everything is shut down.

Can't go to the gym anymore so pumped up the running mileage instead and hit 50 miles this week for the first time in a really long time. Even did two interval sessions.

No running groups, working from home, and otherwise minding my p's and q's. Really nice to take a break from the trading madness this weekend.

I'm prepared to totally cash out next week if it comes to that. I like to think that would be a relief, but i somehow know better than that.

Cheers.

Be safe Seattle. People not taking it serious enough here....yet.

why can't we trade on weekend? wrote:

Today, I saw groups of 10 people or more all over the place. In a state with serious restrictions.

No one is taking it seriously enough. Lately single track trails are more crowded than I've ever seen. I avoid all trails and pathways now. So many people out there in close contact.

Think it gets worse. It'll get prolonged because people think this is some holiday. They'll be forced to issue stricter stay at home guidance. I'm also more terrified than I was. We'll be shut in and unable to go outside. Everyone will be saving money. Economy will suffer even more. I pray for a quick recovery. I could be among the unemployed soon. I will raise emergency cash.

I work at a site run by the federal government. The federal government employees in my building are still hanging out around the table sitting elbow to elbow, laughing and chatting and eating together, sometimes having 10+ people all sitting round the table. One came up to hug me a couple days ago, and another entered my office and walked up about 2 feet from me to tell me something completely unnecessary. They are taking it so not-seriously you'd think they were unaware anything is going on at all.

Also had at least one friend take it personally when I said I'm self quarantining right now and can't hang out since I traveled recently and am giving myself 14 days before socializing with anyone.

MOST people seem to be taking it seriously, but there are still quite a few who are absolutely not. All the spring breakers traveling and partying are definitely going to make things worse also. In fact, having a bunch of young people from all over the country fly to a couple different locations and concentrate themselves, then fly back is probably about the worst thing that can happen for the spread of CV right now.

Also, the new FDA-approved rapid test is supposed to be released March 30th. I would think that will cause the number of confirmed cases to skyrocket, and that's still a week away. Might be worth considering...

Maserati wrote:

Hey Ryan are you still holding that F that you were so fond of?

Actually I am. Although I'm a patting myself on the back for selling some shares at about $13 a couple years ago. But I've bought more on the way down and obviously I'm underwater. However, I'm just sort of nibble buying into Ford and I have it as part of a balanced portfolio with a long time horizon. So I'm owning it for all the right reasons.

Ford is one stock that I've really read up on and followed closely. The whole industry is fun to follow if nothing else. I continue to think Ford is a well run company contrary to popular belief. They are going through restructuring now. And this Coronavirus is probably not the best timing for it happen to Ford. But they are taking decisive action. I expect them to get through this to the other side and be a strong company.