Is movement in the S&P a better indicator than the Dow of where this is going?
Is movement in the S&P a better indicator than the Dow of where this is going?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reality is coming to even Wall Street favorite overvaluation narrative of Forward PE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SPX%20matrix.jpg?itok=uVsBYGYu
I read Zerohedge every day for years. It is entertaining, but I came to the conclusion that none of it's predictions had ever happened. Capitalism is essentially a philosophy of optimism. There is a time to be a bear, but also time to be a bull.
Alfie wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Reality is coming to even Wall Street favorite overvaluation narrative of Forward PE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SPX%20matrix.jpg?itok=uVsBYGYuI read Zerohedge every day for years. It is entertaining, but I came to the conclusion that none of it's predictions had ever happened. Capitalism is essentially a philosophy of optimism. There is a time to be a bear, but also time to be a bull.
Check back in when you are down 50% from here.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Alfie wrote:
I read Zerohedge every day for years. It is entertaining, but I came to the conclusion that none of it's predictions had ever happened. Capitalism is essentially a philosophy of optimism. There is a time to be a bear, but also time to be a bull.
Check back in when you are down 50% from here.
It may well drop 50% from here, but then Zerohedge will be predicting it will drop another 50% etc etc...…
Alfie wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Check back in when you are down 50% from here.
It may well drop 50% from here, but then Zerohedge will be predicting it will drop another 50% etc etc...…
That chart was from Bank of America by the way.
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Alfie wrote:
It may well drop 50% from here, but then Zerohedge will be predicting it will drop another 50% etc etc...…
That chart was from Bank of America by the way.
?
It appears to be a chart created by ZH ostensibly using data from multiple sources. If I am wrong, I’m sure you can provide a BoA link to prove it.
Optimistic posters like you ignored mounting corporate debt used for stock buybacks. A fragile system that encouraged gambling in overvalued equities. Look what it got you? Your optimism disguised your foolish naivety. You hate Zerohedge because it points out how weak your belief system is. Now you are paying in spades.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Optimistic posters like you ignored mounting corporate debt used for stock buybacks. A fragile system that encouraged gambling in overvalued equities. Look what it got you? Your optimism disguised your foolish naivety. You hate Zerohedge because it points out how weak your belief system is. Now you are paying in spades.
What’s funny though is that the fund you pushed is down by 50% over the last 10 years. Seems like the mattress was the best alternative.
can I post with a different handle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Optimistic posters like you ignored mounting corporate debt used for stock buybacks. A fragile system that encouraged gambling in overvalued equities. Look what it got you? Your optimism disguised your foolish naivety. You hate Zerohedge because it points out how weak your belief system is. Now you are paying in spades.
What’s funny though is that the fund you pushed is down by 50% over the last 10 years. Seems like the mattress was the best alternative.
That is not true. Perhaps you, or some other poster, started posting Hussman’s fund results when I referenced his research. I made two points, first, HSGFX would do better than TNA, and second I would rather own HSGFX than the market. Both judgements have proved correct.
It is time you push some other narrative “mr. another handle,” since you lost on this one.
Stocks are an asset class where the metrics can always be used to show stocks as overvalued. Even when they hit historic lows, Zerohedge will argue that they are dangerously overvalued.
It is the same with property. Property has been "over priced" throughout my life, and it will continue to be "overpriced" throughout my children's lives. If I had paid too much attention to this I would never have owned a home.
It is the same with cash. Zerohedge are always on about fiat currencies, and how banks can never repay depositers etc.
Zerohedge preys on peoples fears. In the real world most people get along fine and never experience the constant predictions of doomsday, by Zerohedge.
Alfie wrote:
Stocks are an asset class where the metrics can always be used to show stocks as overvalued. Even when they hit historic lows, Zerohedge will argue that they are dangerously overvalued.
It is the same with property. Property has been "over priced" throughout my life, and it will continue to be "overpriced" throughout my children's lives. If I had paid too much attention to this I would never have owned a home.
It is the same with cash. Zerohedge are always on about fiat currencies, and how banks can never repay depositers etc.
Zerohedge preys on peoples fears. In the real world most people get along fine and never experience the constant predictions of doomsday, by Zerohedge.
I suppose you consider Vanguard Funds, Barron’s, and CNBC more reputable news sources. But they prey on your optimism. They have far more to gain by spinning a narrative that stocks are cheap. Of course you are learning otherwise.
Talk about a dangerous and unreliable source for information, just look at our Fed. Shameful.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I made two points, first, HSGFX would do better than TNA, and second I would rather own HSGFX than the market. Both judgements have proved correct.
Nope. Wrong again.
Alfie wrote:
Stocks are an asset class where the metrics can always be used to show stocks as overvalued. Even when they hit historic lows, Zerohedge will argue that they are dangerously overvalued.
It is the same with property. Property has been "over priced" throughout my life, and it will continue to be "overpriced" throughout my children's lives. If I had paid too much attention to this I would never have owned a home.
It is the same with cash. Zerohedge are always on about fiat currencies, and how banks can never repay depositers etc.
Zerohedge preys on peoples fears. In the real world most people get along fine and never experience the constant predictions of doomsday, by Zerohedge.
+1
Zerohedge is like Fox News. In 2008 they sort of carved out a niche and started catering to people that were upset over action taken by the Federal Reserve (actions that, you know, prevented something worse than the Great Depression). It was supposed to be a reckoning, a big "I told you so" stemming from smugness still lasting from the dot com crash. Then the Fed stepped in and ever since it's been "fiatpocalyspe" this and "easy money" that. It's a sort of "make stock markets and equity valuations great again" sort of thing combined with lasting memories of The Great Recession and popular culture around it like movies and such. Just look at how many people claim CLOs were going to be the next mortgage backed CDO bubble (except worse! despite the fact that CLOs represent a fraction of a fraction of the money in CDOs in 2007)
Now there's a literal Black Swan event and bears are breaking out the champagne ready to issue the biggest I Told You So ever, but the reality is that no one could have predicted this (because that's what Black Swan events are....) and stocks aren't falling because of corporate debt.
Like a lot of things, the bears aren't totally wrong, they're just missing the forest for the trees. Yes, there's too much easy debt propping up sh!tty companies that should have waved goodbye a while ago. But it's not like no one noticed. WeWork was dead the moment it announced an IPO. Uber and Lyft were basically dead on arrival. Companies like Netflix have been so volatile and dependent on user growth because of the enormous amount of debt they have that their stock is basically treated as a casino rather than an investment.
There's a bunch of issues with the system. Low interest rates is just a small piece of the pie. If anything, this whole COVID-19 thing will give us an opportunity to rebuild. Hopefully we can get it right
Racket wrote:
Alfie wrote:
Stocks are an asset class where the metrics can always be used to show stocks as overvalued. Even when they hit historic lows, Zerohedge will argue that they are dangerously overvalued.
It is the same with property. Property has been "over priced" throughout my life, and it will continue to be "overpriced" throughout my children's lives. If I had paid too much attention to this I would never have owned a home.
It is the same with cash. Zerohedge are always on about fiat currencies, and how banks can never repay depositers etc.
Zerohedge preys on peoples fears. In the real world most people get along fine and never experience the constant predictions of doomsday, by Zerohedge.
+1
Zerohedge is like Fox News. In 2008 they sort of carved out a niche and started catering to people that were upset over action taken by the Federal Reserve (actions that, you know, prevented something worse than the Great Depression). It was supposed to be a reckoning, a big "I told you so" stemming from smugness still lasting from the dot com crash. Then the Fed stepped in and ever since it's been "fiatpocalyspe" this and "easy money" that. It's a sort of "make stock markets and equity valuations great again" sort of thing combined with lasting memories of The Great Recession and popular culture around it like movies and such. Just look at how many people claim CLOs were going to be the next mortgage backed CDO bubble (except worse! despite the fact that CLOs represent a fraction of a fraction of the money in CDOs in 2007)
Now there's a literal Black Swan event and bears are breaking out the champagne ready to issue the biggest I Told You So ever, but the reality is that no one could have predicted this (because that's what Black Swan events are....) and stocks aren't falling because of corporate debt.
Like a lot of things, the bears aren't totally wrong, they're just missing the forest for the trees. Yes, there's too much easy debt propping up sh!tty companies that should have waved goodbye a while ago. But it's not like no one noticed. WeWork was dead the moment it announced an IPO. Uber and Lyft were basically dead on arrival. Companies like Netflix have been so volatile and dependent on user growth because of the enormous amount of debt they have that their stock is basically treated as a casino rather than an investment.
There's a bunch of issues with the system. Low interest rates is just a small piece of the pie. If anything, this whole COVID-19 thing will give us an opportunity to rebuild. Hopefully we can get it right
needless to say, I've been drinking
Once again, buying equities is gambling, pure and simple. Always, by anyone, unless you buy a majority stake or have significant board influence.
Equities are just tools to realize profit or loss. Vehicles. And every tool has conditions under which it works. There is no such thing as intrinsic value, unless one is talking liquidation or insured value—and one never does. I have made lots of money using “overpriced” equities as tools.
Sell higher than you buy, by more than just covers your costs. Period. Dividends don’t count, boards can disapprove of them at any time—which you are seeing now.
This is a combo of corona and bad management. There is no question that pretty much every company could have been better-managed to better face a situation like we have. How about reserves? Companies maxxing out their revolvers after 2 weeks of nothing is insane. And there are a lot of them. Total mismanagement, total reliance on the system, total hand-to-mouth, total knife edge, total joke.
However, there is also no question that the corona response has effects above and beyond those of mismanagement. All things being equal, no corona = no max revolver, normal revenues, etc.
Some say if it not corona, it would have been something else...however, they have been saying it would be something for the past 10 years, and it never has been.
We crossed the rubicon after 2008. TBTF is a joke. The proper response would have been bankruptcy and re-organization with attendant losses, and possibly mandatory break-up of anything TBTF. A big 5 bank TBTF? Ridiculous. Many banks have failed throughout history. Not one of them is big enough to have been deemed a monopoly and broken up, so how could one be TBTF? If it failed it would only represent, say, 15% of “the banking system”.
But once we crossed the Rubicon, there was no going back.
But you can always use a stock as a tool to make money—even now. Fortunes have been made shorting this event. I have seen it. If you can’t use the right tool at the right time in the right manner, you reduce your odds of winning. Nobody is the master of all tools in all conditions—for example, I don’t short, I rarely do commodities futures, etc. I don’t play in sliding markets. Igy uses only certain tools, only in very particular and limited circumstances, which limits his success.
We all have our strengths and weaknesses.
Maybe you should drink more often, that was one of your best posts.
Needless to say, I’ve been drinking. ?
“Now there's a literal Black Swan event and bears are breaking out the champagne ready to issue the biggest I Told You So ever, but the reality is that no one could have predicted this (because that's what Black Swan events are....) and stocks aren't falling because of corporate debt.”
Like most posters here you believe valuation doesn’t matter. Financial metrics over centuries says otherwise. To argue stocks aren’t falling on corporate debt is ludicrous. Believe what you wish; just wait until the debt can’t be repaid. That is how you get to 1,100. Sad thing is it is also the microbrewery you frequent that is in jeopardy of failure. A flimsy set of dependency built on a foundation of sand.
Not to add to the alcoholic consumption, but here is Weekend Wall Street:
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street
24 hours until we get a better picture.
This guy says 50/50 odds of short sale ban on Monday.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1241118774834708481
