Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Technically, that is likely, and it will be sold, for the next leg lower.

And pragmatically, that's why I made that evil plan...

Maserati wrote:I am not buying the rally today...

Me neither, although I will place orders to buy in the event of a sharp dip.

the idiot wrote:

Daily update from the front... (actually I live very close to the Western Front from WWI). This morning I walked my wife halfway to work again, intending to check the grocery store on the way back for TP, fresh fruit and a few other things to get us through the weekend (when most stores will be closed). Turns out 8-9 is seniors shopping hour; you need to be 65+ to get in before 9. That was a little annoying to discover, but at the same time very comforting.

I hope you are all treating this seriously now, keeping distant from others to avoid getting sick or passing along to others. Stay safe everyone!

Round trip to Paris when I last checked from my city on the East Coast was only $500 for June/July.

There's gonna be some really tempting deals soon on luxury items like classic cars and vacation homes as people try to liquidate for cash

Reference:

ok this isn't bad

stocks lost their 1% gain in the futures, but the first hour is panicky 'get me out at the bell' trading usually.

the good news is that portfolio theory is working again today. Not perfectly but roughly.

treasuries are up the right amount, gold is up the right amount.

that investment quality corp bond fund is having a good morning - up 3%. But still sicker than a dog. LQD.

When traditional correlations start working again then bigger money will feel more comfortable bargain hunting. When nothing is working right, they'll step back, sensing a non-functioning market.

Good to see gold up. Oil is giving back some of its huge gains from yesterday - not great.

That’s not a particularly great deal. Prices are still up because seats have been cut.

Re: luxury goods. It depends on HOW luxe. Very expensive things are fine, others not so much. For some things, prices are the same, there is just less demand, prices are inelastic.

I have some “higher-end” furniture at the office I want to shut down, “known” danish mod, Knoll, Wiener Werkbund, etc, about 65k worth, but I think the market for that stuff is temporarily dead. I have shuttered the office but continue to pay rent on it, just as storage. That stuff adds up. I am looking at property in the sticks at the moment, to set up a sort of office retreat, and will use these furnishings.

“Real” stuff is fine, nicer things that normal people might have (like this furniture) is dead at the moment.

sold my Lululemon. 22% profit.

I'll try to keep that as my memory of this crisis.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good luck, because that is what you are going to need trading this market. Very dangerous.

Is the Washington Examiner a reputable source? Cause last night they had an interesting article.

Shorts will want to cover if any extended closure or thoughts there-of. I know they said markets will stay open, but they COULD change their minds. Very dangerous being a short if they close the markets until things are better... Here's the article:

up goes the dow wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good luck, because that is what you are going to need trading this market. Very dangerous.

Is the Washington Examiner a reputable source? Cause last night they had an interesting article.

Shorts will want to cover if any extended closure or thoughts there-of. I know they said markets will stay open, but they COULD change their minds. Very dangerous being a short if they close the markets until things are better... Here's the article:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-eyes-grounding-jets-halting-stock-trading-ording-shelter-in-place

the examiner is a not a great source. clickbait and tends conservative.

they are sort of hyperbolists. rarely outright liars tho.

ok BND is only 1% below its NAV.

that's very very good news.

I have to think we'll get a big stock rally when big money sees the bond market working again and some green shoots of virus news start hitting the media.

With a vix at these heights there is a lot of tinder .

the euro seems to be up against the dollar - that's good news too.

the flood into dollars has to stop for this financial crisis to heal and that is a good sign.

Maserati wrote:

Racket wrote:

Round trip to Paris when I last checked from my city on the East Coast was only $500 for June/July.

There's gonna be some really tempting deals soon on luxury items like classic cars and vacation homes as people try to liquidate for cash

That’s not a particularly great deal. Prices are still up because seats have been cut.

It's usually at least double that so I'd say it's a good deal Mas

ok LQD is up 4% and trading at or near its NAV

huzzah.

This is good, good, good.

The economics are terrible, but the markets are functioning today. not perfectly but functioning. Great news.

fed stepping in to buy Munis.

while that is deeply frightening in the long run, today that is good news.

must keep bond market alive.

Racket: !

You have been paying too much. I fly to CDG regularly after visiting NY and DC, and that is what I normally pay for nothing special.

I can get tickets from the midwest for 800 on a good day, 1k normal, 1200 rip-off. Btw prices from the midwest are the same as they ever were.

Agip yeah the muni buying is worrisome. Congrats on the lemon, make sure they have discontinued the see-through tights before mrs agip buys?

I made a tiny buy of gdxj a while back to see how I felt about it, not enough worth mentioning. Bought 24 sold 28, made a couple hundred bucks. Just playing with how to structure gold exposure. It occurred to me that I could have made a lot playing the bounces off 20k and 2400, but in individual stocks not index etf’s.

It is at once liberating and frustrating having an almost clean slate. Strange feeling.

Mas, i did a tiny buy of a gold ETF about a week ago as well, but hoping at this point just to get back to break even. Go figure.

Maserati wrote:

Racket: !

You have been paying too much. I fly to CDG regularly after visiting NY and DC, and that is what I normally pay for nothing special.

I can get tickets from the midwest for 800 on a good day, 1k normal, 1200 rip-off. Btw prices from the midwest are the same as they ever were.

Haha alright we'll see if they drop further. Also I've been looking at the premium economy seats as well lately (I like the extra legroom) so maybe a good deal will pop up.

In on NQ futures and looking at SP minis for an entry point I like. Also setting longs on wheat futures again. Pretty sure there's a global conspiracy specifically against me to keep me from winning on this bet. Africa got wrecked with like Biblical locust plagues and now the coronavirus thing should increase demand for wheat so here's hoping prices skyrocket I guess? Jesus that sounds terrible

that was interesting - a severe downdraft of 2% when cuomo shut down NY State.

but bonds held. I think that helped stocks stop their slide.

the market worked.

although who knows - we could be down 10% today.

tips are up almost 3% today.

maybe that is the market thinking we'll have to inflate our way out of this debt?