Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Anybody cash in on the relief rally today?

I was holding out for +4% on the SPYs, but it never got there. There’s always tomorrow.

Yes, quite a bit of Nasdaq ETF. Wanted to get out of it before it went negative. I didn't want the loss to get carried over to IRA cost basis of the same equity via wash sale rules. Way simpler than having to keep track of that.

Giles Corey wrote:

S+P up less than 0.50% for the day.

Not much help

NASDAQ up 2.29%.

Karz 4 Kidz wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

S+P up less than 0.50% for the day.

Not much help

NASDAQ up 2.29%.

The Captain (NASDAQ) will go down with the Ship (S&P 500). Until then, there are no safe buys.

I made $25,000 today on a $100,000 one day investment in Jack in the Box stock.

Karz 4 Kidz wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

S+P up less than 0.50% for the day.

Not much help

NASDAQ up 2.29%.

Not nearly as solid an indicator as the S+P now is it?

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

I made $25,000 today on a $100,000 one day investment in Jack in the Box stock.

You’re either a loon, a liar, or loaded.

Or some combination of the above!

JACK?

Karz 4 Kidz wrote:

NASDAQ up 2.29%.

Turned off the news. QQQ close was ugly. What'd I miss?

Maserati wrote:

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

I made $25,000 today on a $100,000 one day investment in Jack in the Box stock.

You’re either a loon, a liar, or loaded.

Or some combination of the above!

JACK?

I liquidated an account to cash back early in January. Mostly I thought the market was hot and I actually WAS worried about the Coronavirus. I also have a significant amount of cash on hand that I didn't want to invest at the top of the market.

I've identified three stocks that haven't moved much over the last five years, which I consider to be very stable (that is -- they didn't jump significantly in the last year). JACK has generally been a $85-$105 stock for quite some time. Some dips and highs but nothing extraordinary. When a stock like that tanks down to $17/share, it's time to buy. I only wish I had gotten more!

Nice call. You do know JACK.

Disappointed in the close today, but tomorrow is triple witch. Up we go again; put buyers go home devastated?

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

Maserati wrote:

You’re either a loon, a liar, or loaded.

Or some combination of the above!

JACK?

I liquidated an account to cash back early in January. Mostly I thought the market was hot and I actually WAS worried about the Coronavirus. I also have a significant amount of cash on hand that I didn't want to invest at the top of the market.

I've identified three stocks that haven't moved much over the last five years, which I consider to be very stable (that is -- they didn't jump significantly in the last year). JACK has generally been a $85-$105 stock for quite some time. Some dips and highs but nothing extraordinary. When a stock like that tanks down to $17/share, it's time to buy. I only wish I had gotten more!

Looking at the quarterly report it appears to be a poorly run company. Accumulating large amounts of stock while incurring large amounts of debt. It is evident you have no clue to what you are doing other than buying a price. From the recent 10Q:

“Repurchases of common stock — The Company repurchased 1.9 million shares of its common stock in the first quarter of fiscal 2020 at an average price of $81.41 per share for an aggregate cost of $153.5 million. As of January 19, 2020, this leaves approximately $122.2 million remaining under share repurchase programs authorized by the Board of Directors, consisting of $22.2 million that expires in November 2020 and $100.0 million that expires in November 2021.”

Bet you they won’t be buying anymore stock as they teeter on insolvency.

Even bonds are tanking. Is the whole world coming apart?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Karz 4 Kidz wrote:

NASDAQ up 2.29%.

The Captain (NASDAQ) will go down with the Ship (S&P 500). Until then, there are no safe buys.

No one knows what's safe and what's not safe right now

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The Captain (NASDAQ) will go down with the Ship (S&P 500). Until then, there are no safe buys.

No one knows what's safe and what's not safe right now

Of course that is not true. Buying NASDAQ will burn investors. Just like those that thought Small Caps were a free ride.

I think that after an anemic up day, tomorrow is likely to be sharply down.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

No one knows what's safe and what's not safe right now

Of course that is not true. Buying NASDAQ will burn investors. Just like those that thought Small Caps were a free ride.

Based on what thesis? Quite frankly, I don't think you're going to get the financial crisis you're hoping for. There are a lot of businesses hiring right now and there are quite few that are extremely well capitalized despite your beliefs that seem to stem only from headline news from one of the most questionable sources in investing media (which is already 99% horsesh!t) and insistence that a big non-GAAP conspiracy has brewed for a decade.

It's funny you pick on the NASDAQ though. Let's take a look at the biggest hitters shall we?

Apple : more cash on hand than God, paying employees through all this.

Facebook : just gave everyone $1000 bonuses and everyone can work from home.

Microsoft : more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.

Amazon : hiring 100k workers and will probably hit record revenues on Marketplace and AWS right now.

Google: more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.

Just because you don't like how much debt Netflix has gone into doesn't mean the whole economy is fvcked. I just saw in WSJ that Wal-mart is hiring 150k jobs and doling out $550 million in bonuses to hourly workers. Yeah, airlines are screwed and we'll have to bail them out and the auto-market is probably going to get shook, but the Fed just went way out of it's way to help redeem assets held by huge institutions so they can be liquid enough to provide credit to large businesses that can in turn pay employees down the line for a month or two. In fact, all the big banks just suspended stock buybacks through Q2 so that they could provide liquidity to said businesses. On top of all that, the Fed is buying back massive amounts of bonds and the US Treasury is about to inject over a trillion dollars into the economy.

Your cynicism has been amusing, and I'm sure you'll take victory laps over "predicting" a literally unprecedented global shock event, but at the end of this you're going to be just as grumpy as you and all your ZeroHedge friends were in 2009 because even though stocks fell hard, they didn't fall hard enough to whatever esoteric and arbitrary "vaLuE" you wanted them to.

Hope your running and all that is going well. USA ftw, just give it a couple of months

Racket,

I don’t dispute the general theme of your post. This is already a financial crisis when viewed from the panicked policies from the Central Banks and politicians. None of which have worked.

I didn’t wish a financial crisis, but companies have been not been managed well, and that includes all the companies you mentioned (high debt, stock buybacks). It is all a question of valuation in my view. Typically, if you view market history, market leaders are the last to fall. That is how we will break 2,200 shortly.

Investors will likely make a mistake here. There will be a rebound, and many will see this as the all clear signal. The next leg lower will be another 20-30%, then a dribble, leak to 1,000-1,200 by this time next year.

If I had to buy a stock, I would be more inclined to look at CHV, XOM and BP. These companies are positioned to buy assets on the cheap, and oil is a declining resource.

Running is good, but interrupted with Covid 19. Ten days ago I did a 3,000 meter tempo run in 14:49. Nothing great, but considerable improvement over last year. Our office is closed so working remotely. I am in the demographic that is at high risk, so need to lay low for a couple of weeks.

On housing, I will give you the same counsel as I gave my children. Save, you will get you opportunity. The same dynamics that drove equities is reflected in housing. People are buying a monthly payment with little concern for the price. That attitude will change once values drop, recession deepens, and owners are under water. Deflation will likely keep mortgage rates well below historical levels.

Hope your job and running is going well. Best and good luck.

In everything, investing and running especially, patience is a virtue.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

Anybody cash in on the relief rally today?

went long a QQQ call.

in and out, easy $

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

No one knows what's safe and what's not safe right now

Of course that is not true. Buying NASDAQ will burn investors. Just like those that thought Small Caps were a free ride.

Did “the idiot” register that name before you could?