Down goes the Dow

Well capitalized, my azz. Take a look at the capital tiers and get back to me. A lot of it is pure crap, totally dependent on bailout and the fed.

Having said that, it really doesn’t matter because the banks are an integral part of the system.

Agip of course that is the big question, and why I have hesitated to buy back in. I still have that itch, and 20k and 2400 have more or less been holding, but this time around I am not confident, yet. I do think there will be a recovery bounce, but that’s speculative.

Maybe less speculative is an assessment of where society will be in 5 years’ time. Production and trade will resume, and there will have been some turnover. For example it is hard to imagine a world in which tech will not play a greater role than it does now, and easy to imagine one where its role is greater. Ditto AMZN, etc.

I think stock-picking for a 3-5yr timeframe is possible at this point. But I’m still waiting a bit.

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Banks actually seem like they're well capitalized this time around, probably because they all still remember 2008. Then again who knows really. At this point if someone is way over-leveraged on CLOs (doubt because the market for them is fairly small) then we'll see doors shuttering really soon.

I think the problem is going to be that banks don't want to loan, even at these low rates. So companies will desperately need loans but the banks won't do it until there is clarity.

So a good ol fashioned recession then. Also, with rates at 0% wtf else are banks gonna do?

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

I think the problem is going to be that banks don't want to loan, even at these low rates. So companies will desperately need loans but the banks won't do it until there is clarity.

So a good ol fashioned recession then. Also, with rates at 0% wtf else are banks gonna do?

Bilk depositors and retail clients, of course.

def some bargain hunting going on this morning. That's a great sign.

sample of up stocks:

amazon!

abbot

gilead

netflix

walmart

PG

Verizon

Oracle

Using fees and proprietary as vehicles.

AMZN a bargain at 1825? Look at the 6-month, see anything anomalous?

Maserati wrote:

Well capitalized, my azz. Take a look at the capital tiers and get back to me. A lot of it is pure crap, totally dependent on bailout and the fed.

Great idea. Let's have a look :

Wow, mostly under 15% except for a few money laundering banks like DB and well known retards like UBS and Morgan Stanely (how are they even still around?).

Maserati wrote:

AMZN a bargain at 1825? Look at the 6-month, see anything anomalous?

a bargain is in the eye of the beholder

funny you should say that. Daytraded AMZN this morning just since i figured if I got stuck with it, i wouldn;t mind holding it. They are hiring after all, massively.

Made a small profit.

$24 oil.

Who benefits from that? UPS, chemical companies, right?

I need to look at this. Good place to do some bargain hunting.

It's a shame consumers aren't benefiting from this, b/c virus lockdowns.

It’s more than that, it is what is specifically held in the 2 classes of Tier 1, and leverage ratios.

Markets breaching 20k and 2400, but still near.

Look at dxy, holy flight to “safety”.

Au dropping slightly.

VDE is an easy energy play, mostly Exxon and Chevron, but is a bit broad for my liking.

Maserati wrote:

Look at dxy, holy flight to “safety”.

Did I miss a long post on why the US dollar is no longer OK in your books Mas?

VDE- energy has been such a laggard. We had a position in that, small one, for years. Sold it in the last couple of days at a loss as i was cleaning up and moving more defensive. I would tend to look at some of the beaten down high fliers if i were nibbling now, but that's just me.

Dow at 19,933 from high of 29,551.

Nearly 60% of the way down to 13,000

Made 14% annualized over the 10 months I held my “b&h”, even after having bought back in temporarily and then sold later than I would have liked, in furtherance of my personal psychological experiment. That’s half of what I would have made had I sold at the same time I sold everything else. If today finishes like now, will have saved a lot on the downside. I would buy that portfolio again, tech-heavy US megacaps with a small bit of CHN thrown in.

No, I am not big on the USD, even though that is where a majority of my holdings are denominated. This surge might be a good opportunity for more divestiture, but not yet. Maybe I’ll buy some bugout property up in CAN.

CAD at 69 cents now.

Also looking into Bullionvault to see exactly what the contract is and assess counterparty risk. Good deal at 40-50k level, better at 100k level, includes insurance.

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

This thread now has to be in the LR top-10, along with Mile Rossi, Cancer Guy, Eddy Lee, Post-Nuptial Shutoff, etc.

Dow now around 19,800, what a ride.