the idiot wrote:I'm by now convinced the markets are in free fall, ...
Which of course means we will likely see a sudden sharp reversal and I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my thumb up my bum, fists full of cash... :-)
the idiot wrote:I'm by now convinced the markets are in free fall, ...
Which of course means we will likely see a sudden sharp reversal and I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my thumb up my bum, fists full of cash... :-)
the idiot wrote:
the idiot wrote:I'm by now convinced the markets are in free fall, ...
Which of course means we will likely see a sudden sharp reversal and I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my thumb up my bum, fists full of cash... :-)
Free fall, then drip, drip, drip to 1,100....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Free fall, then drip, drip, drip to 1,100....
If that proves to be the case, a lot of people will owe you an apology...
Time will tell though... our bet expires in December, a lot of ground to cover between now and then.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
The most valued, most complacent market ever got hit w/ a sledgehammer.
And now we're watching the nastiest unwind of all time unfold.
Dangerous markets w/ unprecedented volatility.
The system is staring at failure here hence ever more steep efforts to keep it from falling apart.
4:59 AM · Mar 18, 2020·Twitter Web App
Hey, Sven, you need to take a chill pill. Your hyperbole is just contributing to Igy’s panic. Give the guy a break.
Good for you, so far.
Repeated success is seldom luck. If I were you I would take a hiatus and fantasy trade for thr rest of the week, unless an obvious opportunity presents itself, or a good long appears.
I used to call these daily moves with great success...when they happened every 3-6 months! This is too volatile for me—the amount I would risk isn’t worth the effort.
Igy no I haven’t forgotten, as a matter of fact I have followed those effects as they have resonated through the decade. Have YOU forgotten the bailouts, and what happened to those stocks over the subsequent 10 years? Look at financials right now, in the crapper like in ‘09. This is one reason I am considering BRK-A.
Futures looking to erase yesterday at open.
Maserati wrote:
This is one reason I am considering BRK-A.
They're supposedly sitting on a legendary amount of cash just waiting to buy the dip.
Yes Igy I know that Berkshire had a $700M buyback last year.
Yes. Me too, and I have beaten them over the years and am sitting on proportionally more cash. They are a real long-haul deal, and their inflexibility in situations like this one bothers me.
Maserati wrote:
Yes. Me too, and I have beaten them over the years and am sitting on proportionally more cash. They are a real long-haul deal, and their inflexibility in situations like this one bothers me.
...what? They have like $150 billion in cash on hand. Not really sure that makes them inflexible. Nor would I consider them such at pretty much anytime in recent history. And you're sitting on more than them, proportionally? If that's the case then I'm a little disappointed I haven't been invited to the annual Down Goes the Dow gala on your yacht in Monaco. Must have been lost in the mail it's OK.
Look out below.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yes. Me too, and I have beaten them over the years and am sitting on proportionally more cash. They are a real long-haul deal, and their inflexibility in situations like this one bothers me.
...what? They have like $150 billion in cash on hand. Not really sure that makes them inflexible. Nor would I consider them such at pretty much anytime in recent history. And you're sitting on more than them, proportionally? If that's the case then I'm a little disappointed I haven't been invited to the annual Down Goes the Dow gala on your yacht in Monaco. Must have been lost in the mail it's OK.
Lol proportionally, not absolutely.
Inflexible because although beating, they are down significantly recently. Yes I know you don’t just exit a 30% position in a big 5 in half an hour, but that’s the point. I would expect to see a proportionally greater gain from them by deploying their cash, but that’s speculative—which is the speculation I would be buying.
The rhetoric accompanying their buybacks of last year was not intelligent, IMO.
Although I do spend time in Monaco and know it very well.?. The garden up the hill has the best jade plants I have ever seen.
Fed is gonna buy up corporate debt bonds a la mortgage backed bonds in 2008
interesting open - slightly better than the futures indicated, and no big landslide slide the first 10 minutes. even rising a small amount as of 9:42.
I'm not predicting anything but that kind of non-panic on a big down drop is good to see.
bargain hunting is still a thing, even in the age of ETFs and algos.
Racket wrote:
Fed is gonna buy up corporate debt bonds a la mortgage backed bonds in 2008
corporate debt is a big problem - I'm dumping investment quality debt.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Fed is gonna buy up corporate debt bonds a la mortgage backed bonds in 2008
corporate debt is a big problem - I'm dumping investment quality debt.
even after its crash this year, investment quality corp debt is flat over a year. Vs -11% for stocks. So it worked, I guess.
So the question is what are we facing.
Is this a financial crisis? If so, selling at 30% down would be a great sale even if it feels like bailing out. Because we'll be down 50% eventually.
If this is just another bad time and not a financial crisis, then down 30% is the perfect time to buy.
I do think there will be some very good medical news coming out very soon - there are so many medicines out there already, hard to believe one or a cocktail of several won't get the job done.
And then boom the market goes up 20% in a week. Although that's not a vaccine - it's a cure.
In the negative side...we are in massive recession and unemployment will be shoot up very quickly. Just freeing up the restrictions won't fix that overnight.
The other way to look at it is that down 30% is always a good time to buy if you have five years. If this isn't the great depression anyway. The only question is if you have to wait 1 year or 5 years.
agip wrote:
So the question is what are we facing.
Is this a financial crisis? If so, selling at 30% down would be a great sale even if it feels like bailing out. Because we'll be down 50% eventually.
Banks actually seem like they're well capitalized this time around, probably because they all still remember 2008. Then again who knows really. At this point if someone is way over-leveraged on CLOs (doubt because the market for them is fairly small) then we'll see doors shuttering really soon.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
So the question is what are we facing.
Is this a financial crisis? If so, selling at 30% down would be a great sale even if it feels like bailing out. Because we'll be down 50% eventually.
Banks actually seem like they're well capitalized this time around, probably because they all still remember 2008. Then again who knows really. At this point if someone is way over-leveraged on CLOs (doubt because the market for them is fairly small) then we'll see doors shuttering really soon.
I think the problem is going to be that banks don't want to loan, even at these low rates. So companies will desperately need loans but the banks won't do it until there is clarity.