Down goes the Dow

Racket wrote:

Question to the boomers with money, is this what buying a house for 6 cents and a few coke cans in 2010 felt like? Did you know in 10 years you'd be a millionaire from doing absolutely nothing despite filling the house with tacky wallpaper and carpet (over hard wood floors lol)? Because that's how I feel right now buying into this stock market.

Millennials who let a once-in-a-generation dip go by officially replace boomers as dumbest ever

I don't try to pick a bottom. I'm not that smart. I look for a change of momentum and try to sense when we an upswing has a certain commitment to it. So i miss out on a few percent, but i also miss a lot of false rebounds.

also, I rarely make massive moves, but will be make many incremental moves along the way based on the outlook at any given time.

Racket wrote:

Sounds like helicopter money is in the pipeline right now.

I'm worried about state pensions...it's a quadruple whammy here...low interest rates, sales tax falling, medical costs soaring, stocks crashing....how the heck does all this get paid for by states?

Feds can print money, states can't.

Maybe time to get out of muni bonds.

best description I've seen is...this may be a 'a' time to buy, not 'the' time to buy.

Agip, nicely said.

I'll have to remember that one.

Sorry, mis-calculated, morning low was 33% down from Feb. high (rounded to nearest whole number).

sweaty hands going into the last hour of trading. Almost guaranteed big move. Up or down?

I can totally understand not wanting to carry positions overnight.

on the other hand, rumors of effective vaccines are going to start coming out, which would gap the market up.

agip wrote:

rumors of effective vaccines are going to start coming out, which would gap the market up.

I don't see it happening in time to combat this wave. Next waves in the fall and 2021 sure, but not right now. The situation is advancing so rapidly that it would need to be mass produced by like a million a day starting now to avoid further disruption in businesses. I guess at the very least a vaccine would inject (pun intended) quite a lot of confidence back into the consumer.

Okay. United airlines is down from around 90 to about 32 today. I'm too lazy atm to look at other airlines but imagine their stock price drops are similar. What ones are unlikely to go bankrupt? Tripling my money in 5 years sounds pretty good right now...

yeah, everything i've heard is that vaccines are about a year out if we are lucky. I don't know that that projection has changed,

Bought way too early wrote:

Okay. United airlines is down from around 90 to about 32 today. I'm too lazy atm to look at other airlines but imagine their stock price drops are similar. What ones are unlikely to go bankrupt? Tripling my money in 5 years sounds pretty good right now...

They'll be bailed out because they have to be. The airline industry functions as it's own micro-economy. Good thing they spent the last ten years on stock buybacks though. When we bail them out we should charge a 10% interest rate. That should be effective in curbing future bad behavior and the American tax payer will actually be rewarded

S & P Global predicted only 30 of the world’s 700 airlines would survive, buying out some, others bankrupt.

Will this recession turn us into Japan? How much longer until the Fed Funds rate is negative? Do the tanking oil prices hold us deep into a deflationary trap? Will boomers mercilessly drive down long term rates by further reducing equity exposure?

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

rumors of effective vaccines are going to start coming out, which would gap the market up.

I don't see it happening in time to combat this wave. Next waves in the fall and 2021 sure, but not right now. The situation is advancing so rapidly that it would need to be mass produced by like a million a day starting now to avoid further disruption in businesses. I guess at the very least a vaccine would inject (pun intended) quite a lot of confidence back into the consumer.

nah y'all misunderstand - I meant rumors.

There are trials going on all over the world - rumors are going to come out about their results, which will affect markets positively.

Doesn't mean we'll have a vaccine soon.

Although there is also a chance that an existing medicine will work against this virus, which would be awesome since that medicine is approved already.

There have been predictions that the west will turn Japanese for a long time now.

Note that the Nikkei topped at a whisker short of 40,000 in the late 80's.

It crashed and has never returned to anything like these levels since. No one has predicted that it will it's former high in our lifetime. It is currently at 17,000.

Those that are predicting that stockmarket falls will always reverse are being a tad optimistic.

Racket wrote:

Question to the boomers with money, is this what buying a house for 6 cents and a few coke cans in 2010 felt like? Did you know in 10 years you'd be a millionaire from doing absolutely nothing despite filling the house with tacky wallpaper and carpet (over hard wood floors lol)? Because that's how I feel right now buying into this stock market.

Millennials who let a once-in-a-generation dip go by officially replace boomers as dumbest ever

You’re a fool.

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

I don't see it happening in time to combat this wave. Next waves in the fall and 2021 sure, but not right now. The situation is advancing so rapidly that it would need to be mass produced by like a million a day starting now to avoid further disruption in businesses. I guess at the very least a vaccine would inject (pun intended) quite a lot of confidence back into the consumer.

nah y'all misunderstand - I meant rumors.

There are trials going on all over the world - rumors are going to come out about their results, which will affect markets positively.

Doesn't mean we'll have a vaccine soon.

Although there is also a chance that an existing medicine will work against this virus, which would be awesome since that medicine is approved already.

if it were found that an existing med could treat it, yeah, the sky is the limit. Otherwise, even the news or rumors of a promising vaccine would be a nothing burger for the markets, imo, because it still assumes massive amounts of time for testing, production, etc. If i saw a bump like that, i would figure it's just some daytrading trying to for a quick trade or two.

Alfie wrote:

There have been predictions that the west will turn Japanese for a long time now.

Note that the Nikkei topped at a whisker short of 40,000 in the late 80's.

It crashed and has never returned to anything like these levels since. No one has predicted that it will it's former high in our lifetime. It is currently at 17,000.

Those that are predicting that stockmarket falls will always reverse are being a tad optimistic.

Japan is an island with a population that has reached its carrying capacity. This means the ability for its economy to grow is very, very limited. The US's population is still nowhere near carrying capacity and could double before reaching a plateau. This means the potential for economic growth in the US is still very, very high.

Zero growth economics is a thing that very much is coming, but it will be decades before it hits the US.

I really want to see corporate bonds improve...that's not happening today. V. bad news.

Investment quality bonds down a huge 3%.

I think that means bondholders believe there will significant bankrupcies.

agip wrote:

I really want to see corporate bonds improve...that's not happening today. V. bad news.

Investment quality bonds down a huge 3%.

I think that means bondholders believe there will significant bankrupcies.

although it's partly interest level risk not just credit risk...I should have written that too. Rates are rising today, which is probably good news overall. And that rise is responsible for a good portion of quality corporate bonds' fall.