Down goes the Dow

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

questions:

what is the probability that we'll look back on the day after the Fed's second emergency rate cut as the obvious buy signal?

What is the probability that all the medical trials going on around the world land on something that works? Meaning an existing drug that works against this virus.

What is the probability that the US is a week behind europe in all things and we too will be down 40% from our highs next week?

What is the probability that this will be all the same as other postwar 30% down markets as a historic buy opportunity?

I'm prepared to go full blown war economy and accuse short sellers, bears, and sellers as communists

Do you consider yourself wise and rational? Short sellers can only short sell on up ticks. Short selling is not as much of a problem as you think. Those shares must be purchased at some time. Bears? You must have been unwise not to see the writing on the wall for months. You are mad at Bears? Equity markets have risks. I know Alan Greenspan during his time ast Fed Chair made it seem as if equities were safe. Equities are not safe. Equities are like gambling on football games and betting on Thoroughbred horse racing.

interesting play in big downdrafts is closed end funds selling at discounts.

I'd play in high yield if I can find one without significant energy exposure.

I’ve got orders set to sell at 10% over Friday values and 15% below. Earlier in the day I started at -19.5%, just above the final circuit breaker level. It might get there, seems unlikely though; that would be historic, which doesn’t mean it’s out of the question. Anyway I expect continued wild swings. If you catch these waves, you can make (or lose) a normal years gains in one day. What’s not to like about that?!?

Here in my old European abode the world is so far just a little upside down. The grocery store was well stocked except for toilet paper, and also arugula, our preferred salad greens. Everything else so far still in abundance. The streets are very quiet. Most shops are closed, but not as many as expected. Many open shops have posted signs requesting no more than XX customers at a time inside, which people seem to be obeying.

2400 held.

There is still a lot of possible downside here. A few years have evaporated, it’s not a disaster yet.

My everyman survey, people are down up to 30% in their 401k, and are staying the course.

Obviously at some point it will make sense to buy. I have a feeling that although there is much more room below, 20-21000 will be it on the Dow, and 23-2400 on the s&p. Just a feeling, but I will use it to gauge purchases.

The s won’t hit the fan until jobs are affected, we will see when that comes and how bad it is. 30% on average would have been a nice and totally warranted correction, corona or not—but also a slow recovery would be totally warranted.

I am getting a bit itchy to place a decent-sized market order. Usually when I feel like that I buy shortly thereafter..

green screen Quotrons wrote:

Racket wrote:

I'm prepared to go full blown war economy and accuse short sellers, bears, and sellers as communists

Do you consider yourself wise and rational? Short sellers can only short sell on up ticks. Short selling is not as much of a problem as you think. Those shares must be purchased at some time. Bears? You must have been unwise not to see the writing on the wall for months. You are mad at Bears? Equity markets have risks. I know Alan Greenspan during his time ast Fed Chair made it seem as if equities were safe. Equities are not safe. Equities are like gambling on football games and betting on Thoroughbred horse racing.

Good analysis because I was definitely being serious

Maserati wrote:

I am getting a bit itchy to place a decent-sized market order. Usually when I feel like that I buy shortly thereafter..

outstanding.

I am switching some money from broad index funds to tech funds.

tech down 27% sounds pretty good to me, with a 5 year horizon.

Racket wrote:

green screen Quotrons wrote:

Do you consider yourself wise and rational? Short sellers can only short sell on up ticks. Short selling is not as much of a problem as you think. Those shares must be purchased at some time. Bears? You must have been unwise not to see the writing on the wall for months. You are mad at Bears? Equity markets have risks. I know Alan Greenspan during his time ast Fed Chair made it seem as if equities were safe. Equities are not safe. Equities are like gambling on football games and betting on Thoroughbred horse racing.

Good analysis because I was definitely being serious

for the record, we all consider Racket wise and rational.

Maserati wrote:

I am getting a bit itchy to place a decent-sized market order. Usually when I feel like that I buy shortly thereafter..

Good luck! I playing futures right now on NQ and YM. Things are strangely "range bound" given the fact VIX is at 75 but it's also only 10:30

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Good analysis because I was definitely being serious

for the record, we all consider Racket wise and rational.

When VIX is at 75 I'm allowed to make jokes

Racket wrote:

Maserati wrote:

I am getting a bit itchy to place a decent-sized market order. Usually when I feel like that I buy shortly thereafter..

Good luck! I playing futures right now on NQ and YM. Things are strangely "range bound" given the fact VIX is at 75 but it's also only 10:30

Classic. Right when I posted this there was a 1% jump and I got stopped out.

clearly there's bargain hunting going on.

Anyone who uses a strict dividend discount model is salivating here.

Starno wrote:

agip wrote:

600+ dow point rally already.

by lunch we'll be at new highs.

This post didnt age very well

hah

up 1000 from the bottom today. as of 10:40

agip wrote:

Starno wrote:

This post didnt age very well

hah

up 1000 from the bottom today. as of 10:40

up 1200 from the bottom.

JFC we could have a down 2500 day then an up 2500 day, all in the same day.

agip wrote:

clearly there's bargain hunting going on.

Anyone who uses a strict dividend discount model is salivating here.

No dividends in the recession coming.

Anyone who want to vulture will do short sales, it"s so easy. When the US will be confined like Europe it will drop even more.

Bought DGX.

I agree.

I don't understand why folks don't understand that the market will continue to free fall until the world (and the US) has a handle on how this virus event will play out.

The market may be up for a day or a period of time but continued uncertainty and panic will continue to place downward pressure on it.

And once things do become more clear then the market will look at how bad (or not bad) things really are and decide how to invest from there.

No one knows how this will go... everyone is guessing.

Have to ask.... wrote:

I agree.

I don't understand why folks don't understand that the market will continue to free fall until the world (and the US) has a handle on how this virus event will play out.

The market may be up for a day or a period of time but continued uncertainty and panic will continue to place downward pressure on it.

And once things do become more clear then the market will look at how bad (or not bad) things really are and decide how to invest from there.

No one knows how this will go... everyone is guessing.

if you really don't understand and want to try to understand, you could do worse than this piece

maybe buy infrastructure stocks? No doubt thre will be a huge infra bill soon