agip wrote:
How can you possibly think the stock market makes losers of people, when all you have had to do is buy the index, hang on, and make 10 or 11% per year for 40 years?
Your child-like belief in the invincibility of the market is something else
Giles Corey wrote:
agip wrote:
How can you possibly think the stock market makes losers of people, when all you have had to do is buy the index, hang on, and make 10 or 11% per year for 40 years?
Your child-like belief in the invincibility of the market is something else
well, thanks to people like you, those 10-11% year returns are made possible.
If everyone believed in the stock market, it would not work.
So thank you Giles. You have made me a rich man in your own little way.
ok well the market is not buying what the Fed is selling. futures open down 4%.
agip wrote:
ok well the market is not buying what the Fed is selling. futures open down 4%.
Yes! It's just as I....uh... predicted?
Bring on the bear market then I guess!
Aaaand we are limit down for the night.
Merde.
We might see the VIX hit 100 this week.
TAA wrote:
agip wrote:
20 minutes til the real futures open. I think many many people are going to be hitting f5 together.
A communal experience.
I'm curious to see if the fake futures correspond to the real ones.
Lol. I'm down a lot on my investments, but at least the last couple weeks have been really exciting =)
Yes, I had that experience. Staying up late, waking up in the middle of the night, and getting up early. I had to chill all weekend to build my stamina up for the coming week. Historic market period, especially viewed recently.
Maserati wrote:
Igy,
The productivity effects of the virus are real, and IMO would be deep but short-lived were it not for gov interventions everywhere. As it is, they will be shallower and only possibly longer-lived, so we will see what the total effect ends up being.
But yes those relatively small economic effects might be sufficient to reveal structural weaknesses in the system. A TRUE pandemic would bring the system to its knees; this pandemic will be only a temporary dislocation. The knock-on effects of the pandemic could end up cutting deeper than 34% or whatever the RUT was down.
So far nothing structural, that we plebes know of, has broken. QE to infinity, helicopter money, debt jubilee were all foreseen, and are extensions of existing policy. The system is bending, we will get to see how elastic it is.
We ARE imo entering a different phase wrt debt, with the explicit understanding that the US debt will never be paid back. This mentality could extend to other debt as well, which means that the value of money will decrease to nothing, because that is what is most often loaned and paid.
This will need to be ironed-out. Clearly things will still have value, and we will still benefit from some medium of exchange. This is part of a larger process of monetary shake-out that has been happening.
I hope that equity prices continue to decline, but I also hope that the dollar stays strong or strengthens. Navigating the coming era will prove burdensome.
BTW Mrs. Maserati is very stressed during all of this, not sure why. Maybe because it is making it more difficult/less appealing to me to end up in eur full-time. I will say that there is now greater uncertainty about things and that uncertainty does have an effect, look at what is happening with agip.
Stress levels are elevated.
Maserati,
I see the current market reaction as “Fed has lost control.” Certainly now more than ever they are in a box. Likely anything they do will stabilizes, but does little to drive the market higher. Speculation has popped, “the Fed has your back,” and BTFD are increasingly impotent mantras.
I am sure things will settle down where you and the Mrs. will feel more comfortable about returning to Europe, Certainly hope so.
Igy
It’s pretty quiet in the international lounge where we are waiting to board what I expect to be one of the last flights from Canada to Europe. Heading back home to the middle of the new ground zero, expecting to ride it out for several months of chaos. Surreal...
Everyone stay safe, you all have a chance to work hard to slow the spread and limit the severity of the coming crisis. Good luck to all!
Best to you idiot.
Stay safe and healthy.
See you on the other side.
Igy
Yep, totally surreal in our lifetimes. Empty airspace after 9/11 was also surreal.
Stay safe my friend, a little paranoia goes a long way.
happy travels, and hope to hear from you on the other side.
-SP
So what is Trump's next move? Does he try to shut down the stock market? The Feds have no more ammo to use.
BmoreRunner wrote:
So what is Trump's next move? Does he try to shut down the stock market? The Feds have no more ammo to use.
Funny thing is, Ray Dalio predicted this exact scenario and timed it almost precisely as well. I haven't heard much from him in the most recent few months, but indicated when talking about this 1-2 years ago that it would be another Great Depression type scenario since the Fed has no further tools at their disposal. Might be a good time to hoard cash.
Might have to read his book wrote:
BmoreRunner wrote:
So what is Trump's next move? Does he try to shut down the stock market? The Feds have no more ammo to use.
Funny thing is, Ray Dalio predicted this exact scenario and timed it almost precisely as well. I haven't heard much from him in the most recent few months, but indicated when talking about this 1-2 years ago that it would be another Great Depression type scenario since the Fed has no further tools at their disposal. Might be a good time to hoard cash.
Huh?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/dalio-s-macro-fund-plunged-about-20-this-year-as-market-tankedGhost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Igy,
The productivity effects of the virus are real, and IMO would be deep but short-lived were it not for gov interventions everywhere. As it is, they will be shallower and only possibly longer-lived, so we will see what the total effect ends up being.
But yes those relatively small economic effects might be sufficient to reveal structural weaknesses in the system. A TRUE pandemic would bring the system to its knees; this pandemic will be only a temporary dislocation. The knock-on effects of the pandemic could end up cutting deeper than 34% or whatever the RUT was down.
So far nothing structural, that we plebes know of, has broken. QE to infinity, helicopter money, debt jubilee were all foreseen, and are extensions of existing policy. The system is bending, we will get to see how elastic it is.
We ARE imo entering a different phase wrt debt, with the explicit understanding that the US debt will never be paid back. This mentality could extend to other debt as well, which means that the value of money will decrease to nothing, because that is what is most often loaned and paid.
This will need to be ironed-out. Clearly things will still have value, and we will still benefit from some medium of exchange. This is part of a larger process of monetary shake-out that has been happening.
I hope that equity prices continue to decline, but I also hope that the dollar stays strong or strengthens. Navigating the coming era will prove burdensome.
BTW Mrs. Maserati is very stressed during all of this, not sure why. Maybe because it is making it more difficult/less appealing to me to end up in eur full-time. I will say that there is now greater uncertainty about things and that uncertainty does have an effect, look at what is happening with agip.
Stress levels are elevated.
Maserati,
I see the current market reaction as “Fed has lost control.” Certainly now more than ever they are in a box. Likely anything they do will stabilizes, but does little to drive the market higher. Speculation has popped, “the Fed has your back,” and BTFD are increasingly impotent mantras.
I am sure things will settle down where you and the Mrs. will feel more comfortable about returning to Europe, Certainly hope so.
Igy
I agree, I think we’ve arrived...but we won’t really know until things shake out, especially how ROW reacts.
Agip yes, I am already in gold, but gold is very tricky. It is not for gain, not necessarily even for a hedge, just an addition, something which at times might be uncorrelated.
I will repeat what I said here maybe a year or two ago—-diversify currencies, or asset holdings and especially jurisdictions.
I might not sleep tonight.
It is 100% proven that if you go all in on the Dow right now you will double your profits within a few years. "Buy low, sell high" strategy worked in 2008 it will work now. If you are reading this act NOW, you will thank me when you are a multi-millionaire in 3 years
No, I remember Dalio saying something to that effect, I even watched an interview vid, I think it was on debt monetization.
Voilà, IIRC:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AhDrvQiNV5M
BTW Dalio isn’t all that, on some things he is a quack.
financial advisor wrote:
It is 100% proven that if you go all in on the Dow right now you will double your profits within a few years. "Buy low, sell high" strategy worked in 2008 it will work now. If you are reading this act NOW, you will thank me when you are a multi-millionaire in 3 years
Poor advice from a faux financial advisor.