Igy,
With due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Yes, “my insiders” could lose money, but they’re not who I am talking about. I said I have SEEN the real people, small glimpses by historical anomalous inclusion, part of the luck of my life, not that I hang around with any real people regularly. Some people can lose billions on paper and not notice. There is much of which you appear to be blissfully unaware. Public equities are often not their major concern.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati,
You have failed to acknowledge that no one controls the system.
Igy
How naïve—but there is nothing I can say that will change your mind. Sometimes I wonder if you even acknowledge that there could be a world to which you have never had access.
inquiring minds just gots to know wrote:
Iggy,
Moving forward, in the short term (2-3 mo), cash, short term bonds or medium term bonds (non-corporate)?
You might get 1% annualized in a CD.
Maserati wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati,
You have failed to acknowledge that no one controls the system.
Igy
How naïve—but there is nothing I can say that will change your mind. Sometimes I wonder if you even acknowledge that there could be a world to which you have never had access.
Maserati,
Perhaps. There was no control 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. This will be the same, or possibly worse since the system you see as rigged is goosing the riggers. Look at Ray Dalio; even Buffet is getting spanked. Fooled all of them. Karma.
Mostly just busting your chops here. I give my opinions that is all. Not trying to prove I am right.
I will say this, many, have wasted a lot of time moving money around, only to end up at the same place as 2 1/2 years ago. All that staring at stock screens; hubris transformed to daily worrying. I suspect that time line will soon be stretched to five years wasted, to ten years or more ruined. I can see it in clients that didn’t listen, whether they are traders or buy and hold. Who would’ve known?
Karma.
Igy
The funny thing is, you are probably the closest to me in terms of US equity exposure.
You re-fi that mortgage yet?
What can one say, except that the coming period will be interesting. This is great, it is living history unfolding before our eyes.
I am ok at predicting large-scale trends and events, but one thing I have not considered is what would happen if there were simultaneous systemic or existential threats—say that ongoing corona causes problems with the grid, for example; or corona + political insurrection or revolution. Not saying that will happen in the US, but it bears consideration, maybe in other jurisdictions.
MUCH in this world is still tied to oil, and of course banking. Watch lenders!
If I had to predict I would guess that we will go down a bit more, then get choppy again, and that an uptrend will be noticeable within a few weeks after credit irons out. As the weather improves and victories are won, markets will recover numerically, but economies will take longer, plus there will be some geopolitical shifts.
What happens if they close the markets to stop the declines? There's chatter about it online.
Maserati,
I was lucky on my mortgage. I am at 2.875% on a 10 Year ARM. I paid down quite a bit once I sold my original house. I paid for two thirds of our daughter’s law school. If not it would be paid off now. The note resets in 2023, and a year after retirement I get deferred compensation and stock options that should close the balance. We live pretty conservatively.
I agree a lot will hinge on the next couple of weeks. My sense is we approach 2,000 pretty quickly, and the road to 1,100 is a slow unwind to investor despondency.
Our group has a new sales assistant. I told her Friday that this is a good experience for her, historic. In my view the assumptions that have shaped this industry since the Financial Crisis is about to be turned on its head. Either way glad I am not retiring until October 1st.
Igy
Maserati wrote:
Igy,
With due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
That pretty much sums up this entire thread,
For once I have to agree with Igy, although poor fundamentals are being overrun by a far worse political response. This country is grinding to a halt with zero leadership.
jesseriley wrote:
For once I have to agree with Igy, although poor fundamentals are being overrun by a far worse political response. This country is grinding to a halt with zero leadership.
Jesse pines for his hero Stalin.
private guesswork futures indicate US futures down 1.5% or so, on Sunday morning.
can't take that to the bank but at least it's not a crash.
so crazy that we could be up 5% or down 5% and either one would be understandable.
Down because there is political pressure on every affected country to shut down the economy
Up because there are some early signs that the disease won't spread everywhere like it did in Italy, iran and spain.
$1.5 trillion pumped into the Big Banks from the Fed since October.
Very quietly as law was changed so this is now done without Congressional approval.
The Banks now have an endless supply of $$ from the Fed.
It's all coming down.
It’s a beautiful day and I’m going to fiddle while Rome burns—I’m going to do a 10-miler and then go for microbrew beer with friends. Vitamins D and B!
agip wrote:... there are some early signs that the disease won't spread everywhere like it did in Italy, iran and spain.
Ever the optimist, eh agip? It’s already spreading fast. And predictably.
Giles Corey wrote:
Very quietly as law was changed so this is now done without Congressional approval.
Congress changed a law to give them LESS power?
agip wrote:
Up because there are some early signs that the disease won't spread everywhere like it did in Italy, iran and spain.
There is no support for this notion. Out testing capacity is still terrible. Despite what Trump said it will take us weeks to be able to carry out the tests South Korea can do in a single day (~100,000). The full extent of this epidemic will not be understood for another week or two.
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:... there are some early signs that the disease won't spread everywhere like it did in Italy, iran and spain.
Ever the optimist, eh agip? It’s already spreading fast. And predictably.
From the trump thread:
I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret posting this, but the numbers out of europe today so far are really positive - showing drops in case counts and in some cases death counts.
I fully understand that the data could be bad and there could be a shortage of test kits or capacity to test, but it's not bad news.
I'm not believing it yet, but it will keep me sane until the 7:30 PM EST data dumps.
BmoreRunner wrote:
agip wrote:
Up because there are some early signs that the disease won't spread everywhere like it did in Italy, iran and spain.
There is no support for this notion. Out testing capacity is still terrible. Despite what Trump said it will take us weeks to be able to carry out the tests South Korea can do in a single day (~100,000). The full extent of this epidemic will not be understood for another week or two.
I'm looking at France, Germany, UK, Spain, elsewhere. There are green shoots of good news in the data.
I do not think just a few days of cherry picked data points mean too much, but the good data points are there and should neither be believed nor ignored.
Maserati wrote:
It’s a beautiful day and I’m going to fiddle while Rome burns—I’m going to do a 10-miler and then go for microbrew beer with friends. Vitamins D and B!
I did a long run with friends yesterday and kept running into other groups of people we know from running. Thank goodness we can still get out and run. Hope they don't try to stop us from running.
In Italy can people still go out and run? I don't know.