Down goes the Dow

Think of your portfolio as ballast to your profession. One of my colleagues reduced his personal portfolio risk with the view it would allow him to assess the environment more clearly. Personally I look at my profession, age, house appreciation, and think I simply do not need to be over exposed. Over the last several years I have used an “anti-fragile” portfolio with 20% at risk and 80% very safe.

not my usual name wrote:. I buy/sell daily to adjust to what's happening. That's the short answer.

Same here. Placing orders each day trying to catch either a high fluctuation (and sell) or a low one (and buy). Today three sell orders went through near the day’s high. I think it’s more likely I’ll buy buying into a dip on Monday...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

^Instead we should listen to the troll Detector Dude?.

He certainly couldn’t do any worse.

Honestly, I'd rather this virus thing be over than the markets go down because of it. I think they should go down because they are overvalued, too leveraged. The virus thing is very disruptive. It's hard to even go running. A recession means I could lose my job.

There's got to be more going on. There's oil and some people were "swimming naked".

I pray this virus resolves soon. It hasn't affected many people yet in North America. I pray it doesn't. Just trying to avoid it myself has become a nightmare. The response by officials has been terrible. I think there should be a mandatory shutdown of non-essential business. Yank off the band-aid, get er' done.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Over the last several years I have used an “anti-fragile” portfolio with 20% at risk and 80% very safe.

I like to think this is where we are at also. Our net worth contains about 20% in equities (mostly through ETFs), another 20% in a piece of the company I work for, 5% in bonds, 10% in cash and the balance in RE, which is arguably not as safe as one might like but in any event is a real asset. That plus one solid defined benefits pension between us that we could live off if we really had to.

the idiot wrote:

not my usual name wrote:. I buy/sell daily to adjust to what's happening. That's the short answer.

Same here. Placing orders each day trying to catch either a high fluctuation (and sell) or a low one (and buy). Today three sell orders went through near the day’s high. I think it’s more likely I’ll buy buying into a dip on Monday...

I did a lot of trading today just to play the wild swings. That is one thing, and that is different than trades i use to position myself for longer term preparedness. I did essentially nothing today as to the later, simply because i would like to see a couple of days of strong upward trend before having confidence in a sustained rebound.

sitting in cash wrote:

Honestly, I'd rather this virus thing be over than the markets go down because of it. I think they should go down because they are overvalued, too leveraged. The virus thing is very disruptive. It's hard to even go running. A recession means I could lose my job.

There's got to be more going on. There's oil and some people were "swimming naked".

I pray this virus resolves soon. It hasn't affected many people yet in North America. I pray it doesn't. Just trying to avoid it myself has become a nightmare. The response by officials has been terrible. I think there should be a mandatory shutdown of non-essential business. Yank off the band-aid, get er' done.

Well said. I really doubt it will resolve soon, but i do think we will know what we are dealing with fairly soon - as in the real situation will emerge, settle in, and we will have to wait it out for a very long, tedious time.

That said, it's kind of fascinating. What a spectacle.

Take care.

seattle prattle wrote: I really doubt it will resolve soon, but i do think we will know what we are dealing with fairly soon - as in the real situation will emerge, settle in, and we will have to wait it out for a very long, tedious time.

That said, it's kind of fascinating. What a spectacle.

Take care.

I’ve been saying in this thread for weeks I’ve been concerned about this virus, but today I’ve said out loud to colleagues and will repeat here that it has me fearful on a deep level. I agree we should experience peak chaos in the near future (a few weeks at most), followed by a lengthy period of bizarre semi-chaos that we will adapt to in unexpected ways.

I’m thinking the markets continue downward next week and find bottom in the coming weeks to months.

I still think I will win my bet with Igy and SP500 is not below 1500 come December.

It remains weird to me that people can look at the nations which have had the virus...china, south korea, japan...and they're fine now.

but then when people look at Europe and america they assume it's not going to be fine.

Why not look at where the virus has been and use that as a guide?

i dunno we'll see. China was not fine for a while but they got through it. . I imagine italy will be better in the same way.

But meanwhile we're probably already in a recession and that has unforecastable ripples.

Repost our bet idiot. I was thinking I said it would be closer to 1,500 than your target. I couldn’t find the post.

agip, DGTD buddy, I mean this in the nicest way, but pull your head out of your a$$.

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584133553

If Newt Gingrich think this is a crisis...

agip wrote:

It remains weird to me that people can look at the nations which have had the virus...china, south korea, japan...and they're fine now.

but then when people look at Europe and america they assume it's not going to be fine.

Why not look at where the virus has been and use that as a guide?

i dunno we'll see. China was not fine for a while but they got through it. . I imagine italy will be better in the same way.

But meanwhile we're probably already in a recession and that has unforecastable ripples.

But China is not fine. People aren't working at full strength or spending as in the past. Auto sales are down 80%. The psyche has clearly changed. How long to recovery? Certainly not V-shaped.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:]Repost our bet idiot. I was thinking I said it would be closer to 1,500 than your target. I couldn’t find the post.

I was thinking you might welch on the bet... I can’t easily find the original posts, but if you want to change your mind I guess that’s your prerogative.

the idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:]Repost our bet idiot. I was thinking I said it would be closer to 1,500 than your target. I couldn’t find the post.

I was thinking you might welch on the bet... I can’t easily find the original posts, but if you want to change your mind I guess that’s your prerogative.

idiot,

No, you are the one that needs to request a change (in view), The Bull Market is dead. We will hit the 1,100 over the next year. Sorry to say you and most posters here are delusional. And yes, it is valuation. And yes, it was predictable. You and others felt you had some special expertise. Millions of you. Sucked into a believe system based on hokum. Sorry, but you would be wise to wise up.

Igy

The market will not test 1100, you heard it here (not first obviously).

Do me a favour and explain the so called special expertise I claimed? Or what belief system I promoted? I’ve never yet hurled personal insults at you. Not once. And I’ve often defended you and sympathized with your general view. And yet this evening I sure feel like I oughtta...

the idiot wrote:

The market will not test 1100, you heard it here (not first obviously).

Do me a favour and explain the so called special expertise I claimed? Or what belief system I promoted? I’ve never yet hurled personal insults at you. Not once. And I’ve often defended you and sympathized with your general view. And yet this evening I sure feel like I oughtta...

Igy tends to make up stuff about other people to make him feel superior. This is just one example of the fantasy world that he occupies.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

It remains weird to me that people can look at the nations which have had the virus...china, south korea, japan...and they're fine now.

but then when people look at Europe and america they assume it's not going to be fine.

Why not look at where the virus has been and use that as a guide?

i dunno we'll see. China was not fine for a while but they got through it. . I imagine italy will be better in the same way.

But meanwhile we're probably already in a recession and that has unforecastable ripples.

But China is not fine. People aren't working at full strength or spending as in the past. Auto sales are down 80%. The psyche has clearly changed. How long to recovery? Certainly not V-shaped.

i was speaking narrowly about the virus. the virus is as good as dead in china.

Technically, we need to re-test the December 2018 lows. We didn't get there yesterday or today. Nice try, but came up short. Will it hold or break thru.

the idiot wrote:

The market will not test 1100, you heard it here (not first obviously).

Do me a favour and explain the so called special expertise I claimed? Or what belief system I promoted? I’ve never yet hurled personal insults at you. Not once. And I’ve often defended you and sympathized with your general view. And yet this evening I sure feel like I oughtta...

the idiot,

I was indelicate in my response. My apologize. I am not criticizing you, for you are obviously a person of high character. What I will criticize is a belief system where financial principles do not matter. Of course how can we blame anyone that have fallen into this trap. Politicians, central banks, and the financial industry that have turned markets into something that is hardly recognizable. The last three weeks are more about the fragility of that system than Covid-19.

Best wishes on your trip, health, and investments.

Igy