Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Irony Mann wrote:

I know you’re John Hussman, winner of Best Investment Manager 2020!

Up +14

% year-to-date

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote

And down 38% since inception. Let us know when it gets back to even.

BmoreRunner wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

It is my guess that the sell-off will continue.

Some bounce back this morning.....but I do think the downward trend will continue for several days.

Yes I agree, by the close most of the gains will be lost. Still expecting a huge Monday. Potentially -7+%.

if today winds up negative that would break a lot of peoples' hearts.

Giles Corey wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

Wrong as always about the virus.

Germany is down because they’ve just released logical estimates:

60-70% will get virus, of whom 20% will be hospitalized. Germany is possibly the best-prepared nation on Earth, but they have stated that the only reasonable goal is to keep all these people from getting sick at once. Which means provisionally quarantining everyone, except for vital errands.

Please, agip, wake up!

That's what I am seeing: "European markets are mixed today. The FTSE 100 is up 7.88% while the CAC 40 gains 7.77%. The DAX is off 5.95%."

lol obvious troll is obvious

I'm still out there buying in small to medium size.

Already fading. Not a great start

Racket wrote:

Already fading. Not a great start

ack this is not great

agip wrote:

BmoreRunner wrote:

Yes I agree, by the close most of the gains will be lost. Still expecting a huge Monday. Potentially -7+%.

if today winds up negative that would break a lot of peoples' hearts.

Well it's going down even earlier than I thought! pretty crazy.

BmoreRunner wrote:

agip wrote:

if today winds up negative that would break a lot of peoples' hearts.

Well it's going down even earlier than I thought! pretty crazy.

well at some level you have to expect people forcing through sell orders at any price after staring at the ceiling all night. But who knows.

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Already fading. Not a great start

ack this is not great

Won't be a good sign if there isn't enough buying power to justify at least a 1% gain by EOD. Still a lot of time left but if people aren't buying at this level then what are they waiting for?

I’m placing small orders to buy on a big dip or sell on a big bounce.

VIX at 72

the idiot wrote:

VIX at 72

that's the biggest buy alert I see.

I mean 10 years from now we'll look back at a vix 72 and just be utterly shocked we didn't buy.

it's easy to say 'buy low' but it's hard to get it done in the pinch.

My goal over the next week is to make in NFLX stock back what I've paid them over the last 10 years of subscription fees.

They are waiting for faith, like me.

This is deep enough that people are spooked. If you wait another 4% up on the RUT to buy, so what, you have still bought a bargain.

But in the next say 3 weeks there is still potentially lots of downside on the sp500.

Also in my own informal survey the everyman with a 401k/IRA has done nothing, so there isn’t necessarily any retail money free. Institutional guys are covering their loans—which they might not have to do so much depending on the understanding the banks seem to have with the WH, so that might provide stability. Of course if any of US was to miss a payment, the situation would be different. It is more free-market interference by Drumpf, at the everyman’s expense—really no different than any other president, R or D.

Maserati wrote:

They are waiting for faith, like me.

This is deep enough that people are spooked. If you wait another 4% up on the RUT to buy, so what, you have still bought a bargain.

But in the next say 3 weeks there is still potentially lots of downside on the sp500.

Also in my own informal survey the everyman with a 401k/IRA has done nothing, so there isn’t necessarily any retail money free. Institutional guys are covering their loans—which they might not have to do so much depending on the understanding the banks seem to have with the WH, so that might provide stability. Of course if any of US was to miss a payment, the situation would be different. It is more free-market interference by Drumpf, at the everyman’s expense—really no different than any other president, R or D.

Yeah I heard Vanguard reported trades in just 1% of their retail accounts.

This is not driven by retail.

Which is probably bearish...if mom and pop do sell, that's a whole new wave of sales.

But judging by my clients, that's unlikely to happen. Rock steady.

I have this feeling that the news cycle has not yet bottomed, notwithstanding the figures that agip gave.

We still have viral expansion, and have yet to hear official statements about things like Q1 GDP, not to mention Q2.

I agree with you in personal sentiment, agip—and frankly, I think so do many other Americans. That might be our downfall. That said we don’t really appear to know anything about this virus, so IMO it could take a turn for the better at any time. The weather warms, people become healthier, the air becomes more moist, some people socially distance, etc

So IMO it could still go either way, big-time. Still a bit too early to call it.

Agreed. Peole at Wells, Ameriprise, and Schwab all told me the same thing yesterday. Lots of calls, and lots of remjnders about the whole investing premise, and lots of hasty actions not taken.

the awfulness of bond ETFs being knocked off their NAV yesterday seems to have solved itself today. Bond ETFs are rising a lot.

if that system breaks down and people lose faith in ETFs...that would be a serious problem.

Esp if stupid algos figure out how to make it happen.

Pretty quiet - eerily so - in the airport lounge in a city in the Prairies today. Currently planning to head home to Europe Sunday night, have already been informed I will be prevented from leaving the country afterward until the dust settles.