Maserati wrote:
Yeah agip but WHY leave that money on the table? Is there zero concept of a limit order? Stop loss? These are standards. Why do you not sell and re-buy later, when at the beginning of a predictable cycle? Surely you could predict this, even shortly after it started.
The marginal benefit seems huge to me. No, it has BEEN huge to me.
well god blessya you are in the 0.00001% who can time the market. Go to it.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yeah agip but WHY leave that money on the table? Is there zero concept of a limit order? Stop loss? These are standards. Why do you not sell and re-buy later, when at the beginning of a predictable cycle? Surely you could predict this, even shortly after it started.
The marginal benefit seems huge to me. No, it has BEEN huge to me.
well god blessya you are in the 0.00001% who can time the market. Go to it.
my point is that you should not call it buy and hold, that's all
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yeah agip but WHY leave that money on the table? Is there zero concept of a limit order? Stop loss? These are standards. Why do you not sell and re-buy later, when at the beginning of a predictable cycle? Surely you could predict this, even shortly after it started.
The marginal benefit seems huge to me. No, it has BEEN huge to me.
well god blessya you are in the 0.00001% who can time the market. Go to it.
Yeah I was about to say. Sounds easy, like winning a Super Bowl. All you have to do is score more points than the other team!
All futures traders should be hanged. They've been the only ones doing anything really "volatile" the past few weeks.
Scoffer wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
And you scoffed at me all along.
Only because you’ve been wrong all along.
No, you never got the point that valuations matter. There is no need to scold you however. The market will deliver the lesson.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yeah agip but WHY leave that money on the table? Is there zero concept of a limit order? Stop loss? These are standards. Why do you not sell and re-buy later, when at the beginning of a predictable cycle? Surely you could predict this, even shortly after it started.
The marginal benefit seems huge to me. No, it has BEEN huge to me.
well god blessya you are in the 0.00001% who can time the market. Go to it.
Says the guy who has many posts about trying to time the market
Bad Wigins wrote:
All futures traders should be hanged. They've been the only ones doing anything really "volatile" the past few weeks.
Are you suggesting market makers with buying power in the hundreds of billions are being played for fools by a bunch of meth addicts in pajamas who seriously talk about technical analyis?
Giles Corey wrote:
agip wrote:
well god blessya you are in the 0.00001% who can time the market. Go to it.
Says the guy who has many posts about trying to time the market
yeah that's fair to a point.
My portfolio is 95% true buy and hold. I set an allocation and rebalance.
I keep 5% in a trading account and that's what I'm using to muck around with. Just a little piece, to get my ya yas out so I don't mess around with the main portfolio.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Scoffer wrote:
Only because you’ve been wrong all along.
No, you never got the point that valuations matter. There is no need to scold you however. The market will deliver the lesson.
Valuations don’t matter as much as you think. They are lower now than they were a few years ago, yet we’ve repeatedly seen record high after record high over the last decade plus. Valuations are only one part of the much larger picture.
It’s a new day, with new opportunities.
Yeah Racket, it’s not just “futures traders” driving this.
You guys have to admit this is like walking unbalanced on a balance beam—you keep making huge compensatory moves to stay on. It is a form of dynamic equilibrium with a huge envelope. I have never seen this type of thing so regular, maybe someone older than me has.
Money is being made here, intraday. A guy here has been buying the vix like agip, but literally selling that same day. He has done great, but his wife won’t let him play with too much money. We will see how long his streak holds. Figures to be another active day for him.
Are you guys serious that you couldn’t see trouble coming before the first 1000-point drop? Not even right after it, with all the news, and the market history of not only the immediately preceding 2 months, but of the past few years?
This is to me no more than shaking the tree to get all the loose fruit to fall. Who specifically is doing it, IDK.
Maser there are always reasons to sell stocks. Selling stocks whenever you get scared and make a sell case equals very poor returns.
Whereas buying and holding equals outstanding returns.
The SP500 fund at Vanguard has been open since the mid 70s. Its annual return since inception, 44 years, has been 10.9% per year. That's through a complete carpton of bad stuff happening.
Anyway, futures have been pretty stable for the last hour at -3% give or take. My guess is that we have a quiet day after a 3% down open.
agip wrote:
Maser there are always reasons to sell stocks. Selling stocks whenever you get scared and make a sell case equals very poor returns.
Whereas buying and holding equals outstanding returns.
The SP500 fund at Vanguard has been open since the mid 70s. Its annual return since inception, 44 years, has been 10.9% per year. That's through a complete carpton of bad stuff happening.
Anyway, futures have been pretty stable for the last hour at -3% give or take. My guess is that we have a quiet day after a 3% down open.
I read an article that said millennials should start saving 40% of their salary to 401k if they want to retire at 65. The crux of the argument was that real returns were going to be as low as 1% over the next 30 years and I laughed
Agip my friend, it has nothing to do with fear—just the same as buying when things are severely down has nothing to do with courage. Like everyone else I have my data analysis and my signals. I have some very broad, and very coarse ones, by design. They give me suggestions. There is no emotion in it, at all (however I do agree that at times it is best to yield to fear or animal spirits, as the case may be).
Even at high valuations at the start of 2019 and end of 2018, I got in. Then other, abnormal factors came to bear, and the paradigm shifted. While still only a minor correction, 10 or 20% matters, a lot.
Are you saying that you were oblivious before the 1000-point drop and then fearful after it, and resisted that fear? It might be interesting for you in particular to, in 1 year’s or 6 month’s time, to compare the performance of your 5% outlet fund with that of your main portfolio. Yes I know you keep the two separate and use them for separate purposes. What has their relative performance been like over the past 5 or 10 years of bull market? Maybe it’s not an interesting question if you believe that you act on emotion, but you seem to be as rational as anyone.
Our small collective is just a bunch of independent individual investors, and together we have, over the years, employed various people to do work for us, each according to his wishes. Every single person here saw this coming, and with the exception of the two BRK guys, nobody has been caught in the net. Those two guys are in their 80’s, rich, and now aloof, so their unresponsiveness can be understood—and even at that, they foresaw events.
I know you have done well, and 10% per annum before tax is nothing to sneeze at, not at all. I guess it’s just a question of personality type—I work and fret just to squeeze out another few % while trying to never lose on a trade (which is easy in a bull market, but difficult in this environment, which is why I am jnactive at the moment).
I hope I’m not one of those guys who will die at his desk. Hmmmmm....
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Maser there are always reasons to sell stocks. Selling stocks whenever you get scared and make a sell case equals very poor returns.
Whereas buying and holding equals outstanding returns.
The SP500 fund at Vanguard has been open since the mid 70s. Its annual return since inception, 44 years, has been 10.9% per year. That's through a complete carpton of bad stuff happening.
Anyway, futures have been pretty stable for the last hour at -3% give or take. My guess is that we have a quiet day after a 3% down open.
I read an article that said millennials should start saving 40% of their salary to 401k if they want to retire at 65. The crux of the argument was that real returns were going to be as low as 1% over the next 30 years and I laughed
40% is absurd but I do wonder what a flat or shrinking population will do to stock market returns. Can't be good. Although I suppose businesses will be able to make money all over the globe, so what the population does within US borders may be less important in the future.
Of course, it’s all about AUM
Maserati wrote:
Agip my friend, it has nothing to do with fear—just the same as buying when things are severely down has nothing to do with courage. Like everyone else I have my data analysis and my signals. I have some very broad, and very coarse ones, by design. They give me suggestions. There is no emotion in it, at all (however I do agree that at times it is best to yield to fear or animal spirits, as the case may be).
Even at high valuations at the start of 2019 and end of 2018, I got in. Then other, abnormal factors came to bear, and the paradigm shifted. While still only a minor correction, 10 or 20% matters, a lot.
Are you saying that you were oblivious before the 1000-point drop and then fearful after it, and resisted that fear? It might be interesting for you in particular to, in 1 year’s or 6 month’s time, to compare the performance of your 5% outlet fund with that of your main portfolio. Yes I know you keep the two separate and use them for separate purposes. What has their relative performance been like over the past 5 or 10 years of bull market? Maybe it’s not an interesting question if you believe that you act on emotion, but you seem to be as rational as anyone.
Our small collective is just a bunch of independent individual investors, and together we have, over the years, employed various people to do work for us, each according to his wishes. Every single person here saw this coming, and with the exception of the two BRK guys, nobody has been caught in the net. Those two guys are in their 80’s, rich, and now aloof, so their unresponsiveness can be understood—and even at that, they foresaw events.
I know you have done well, and 10% per annum before tax is nothing to sneeze at, not at all. I guess it’s just a question of personality type—I work and fret just to squeeze out another few % while trying to never lose on a trade (which is easy in a bull market, but difficult in this environment, which is why I am jnactive at the moment).
I hope I’m not one of those guys who will die at his desk. Hmmmmm....
just seems like we look at the problem differently.
I have come to peace with the idea that trading on information freely available will result in very poor returns. When I'm competing against millions of people in anything but distance running, I know i will get my clock cleaned.
So that's choice A.
Choice B is to accept that the stock market will rise over time in excess of the inflation rate, with the cost of temporary setbacks.
I'm taking B. Because if I try to trade with the headlines I'll make so many mistakes that I'll lose out.
Hard to benchmark my trading account. Against stocks? Global stocks? US stocks? A balanced portfolio? And bonds have done so well lately that it's been hard to beat them. And unless you overweight in tech, you will underperform.
I certainly don't outperform 100% stock indices like the SPX.
I probably do the same as global indices like ticker VT.
I probably outperform a 60/40 portfolio.
Re: the poster who commented sarcastically on what a great retirement scheme 401k’s are
Balanced portfolios have been doing ok so far, who knows what will happen if the loan portfolios begin to experience default. They can also be in cash. Surely one should accept some responsibility for one’s retirement fund, if not all. Yes there are limits to retirement accounts and what can be done within them—but once we went off the gold standard, and once CB’s started fiddling actively, and ince gov spending spiraled out of control, a gov-managed pension became a lot less appealing.
What alternative do you propose?
I just accepted some lawyer work to look into someone’s ILIT and see what is happening. The trustee has not made timely disclosure upon lawful request, apparently for the first time. Several million, fully funded. Gone dark.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Agip my friend, it has nothing to do with fear—just the same as buying when things are severely down has nothing to do with courage. Like everyone else I have my data analysis and my signals. I have some very broad, and very coarse ones, by design. They give me suggestions. There is no emotion in it, at all (however I do agree that at times it is best to yield to fear or animal spirits, as the case may be).
Even at high valuations at the start of 2019 and end of 2018, I got in. Then other, abnormal factors came to bear, and the paradigm shifted. While still only a minor correction, 10 or 20% matters, a lot.
Are you saying that you were oblivious before the 1000-point drop and then fearful after it, and resisted that fear? It might be interesting for you in particular to, in 1 year’s or 6 month’s time, to compare the performance of your 5% outlet fund with that of your main portfolio. Yes I know you keep the two separate and use them for separate purposes. What has their relative performance been like over the past 5 or 10 years of bull market? Maybe it’s not an interesting question if you believe that you act on emotion, but you seem to be as rational as anyone.
Our small collective is just a bunch of independent individual investors, and together we have, over the years, employed various people to do work for us, each according to his wishes. Every single person here saw this coming, and with the exception of the two BRK guys, nobody has been caught in the net. Those two guys are in their 80’s, rich, and now aloof, so their unresponsiveness can be understood—and even at that, they foresaw events.
I know you have done well, and 10% per annum before tax is nothing to sneeze at, not at all. I guess it’s just a question of personality type—I work and fret just to squeeze out another few % while trying to never lose on a trade (which is easy in a bull market, but difficult in this environment, which is why I am jnactive at the moment).
I hope I’m not one of those guys who will die at his desk. Hmmmmm....
just seems like we look at the problem differently.
I have come to peace with the idea that trading on information freely available will result in very poor returns. When I'm competing against millions of people in anything but distance running, I know i will get my clock cleaned.
So that's choice A.
Choice B is to accept that the stock market will rise over time in excess of the inflation rate, with the cost of temporary setbacks.
I'm taking B. Because if I try to trade with the headlines I'll make so many mistakes that I'll lose out.
Hard to benchmark my trading account. Against stocks? Global stocks? US stocks? A balanced portfolio? And bonds have done so well lately that it's been hard to beat them. And unless you overweight in tech, you will underperform.
I certainly don't outperform 100% stock indices like the SPX.
I probably do the same as global indices like ticker VT.
I probably outperform a 60/40 portfolio.
Sounds like a debate on efficient markets and whether or not all information is baked in
Maserati wrote:
Re: the poster who commented sarcastically on what a great retirement scheme 401k’s are
Balanced portfolios have been doing ok so far, who knows what will happen if the loan portfolios begin to experience default. They can also be in cash. Surely one should accept some responsibility for one’s retirement fund, if not all. Yes there are limits to retirement accounts and what can be done within them—but once we went off the gold standard, and once CB’s started fiddling actively, and ince gov spending spiraled out of control, a gov-managed pension became a lot less appealing.
What alternative do you propose?
Pensions. Like we all used to have. You work so m any years at such a pay level and you retire with a monthly check. You know exactly what you are getting.