Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Growth will be the rebound IMO

It took only 25 years for the Dow to retrace back after the 1929 Great Recession

Maserati wrote:Growth will be the rebound IMO

I think so too, and that it will be mainly in tech. The world around us has changed in fundamental ways, mainly in terms of how we interact with exploding amounts of data that we turn into meaningful information. Information has value, and industry geared toward delivering us more and better information is what with (IMHO) thrive and grow into the future.

the idiot wrote:

Maserati wrote:Growth will be the rebound IMO

Information has value

That's an existential issue in big data right now and part of a prevailing paradigm that's starting to lose steam. In my opinion the whole obsession over every piece of data is way overblown and companies should turn to a more authentic and personal process. But that's a philosophy conversation for another time

This is not like that. This is, so far, a combo of two very transitory phenomena.

That could change, but markets are controlled by the big boys. They are waiting for gov announcements re stimulus and further rate cuts, which could give momentum to a turned tide.

I don’t know when it will start, but I still believe that the recovery will be meteoric, once the dead wood is cleared out.

Things are drifting lower as the day progresses.

Dow down nearly 7% for the day.

Would love to get a 7% return for a year

Bib #1 wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Growth will be the rebound IMO

It took only 25 years for the Dow to retrace back after the 1929 Great Recession

this is a misunderstood fact - first off, a balanced stock/bond portfolio like most people have recovered far, far faster.

second, people bought at the lower prices so they recovered faster that way

most important, the Dow kept rejiggering its components. the broader stock market recovered much faster than the Dow. They kept putting in wrong additions.

Maserati wrote:

This is not like that. This is, so far, a combo of two very transitory phenomena.

That could change, but markets are controlled by the big boys. They are waiting for gov announcements re stimulus and further rate cuts, which could give momentum to a turned tide.

I don’t know when it will start, but I still believe that the recovery will be meteoric, once the dead wood is cleared out.

Things are drifting lower as the day progresses.

Meteoric only if/when a vaccine is developed. And the sooner the better. So long as a cloud of doubt exists that will put a ceiling on the market

Yes, there is a need for leadership, not just management-by-data.

But in the meantime I agree with idiot that tech will lead the charge. It’s perceived as high-value for end-users.

In talking to a few mid-level traders, I get the sense that their basic attitude hasn’t changed. They STILL don’t care about bonds. They still genuinely believe in BTFD wisdom, and that no losses have been realized for those who have not sold. This is just an excuse to be even more bullish once the tide turns.

Of course they don’t make the big decisions, but they are useful idiots. Remember, pension funds still need those 7+% annual returns, and a lot of them went into stocks big-time.

The term “metallized” is being thrown around. I would buy physical if I wasn’t paranoid about fakes (yes I know the best consumer-level testing is pretty good), but I will stick with my zgldus.sw

Racket wrote:

the idiot wrote:

Information has value

That's an existential issue in big data right now and part of a prevailing paradigm that's starting to lose steam. In my opinion the whole obsession over every piece of data is way overblown and companies should turn to a more authentic and personal process. But that's a philosophy conversation for another time

Big data has ruined the NFL, MLB and NBA. Games are boring as heck with the emphasis on analysis.

my general masterview is that the US is following europe, just a few years behind.

European stocks have done nothing for years and years...and we're probably heading to the same place.

European bonds have been this low in yield for years.

Both places have old and shrinking or barely growing populations and big debts.

Japan was the frontrunner of all this...we're all heading down that road, until we decide to have babies again or open the gates to immigration.

Europeans and americans are just too rich and fat and lazy...and they won't have enough babies.

That's the facts.

Gasoline prices down only 10 cents per gallon where I live. I think I will wait a few more days before I gas up

Bib #1 wrote:

Racket wrote:

That's an existential issue in big data right now and part of a prevailing paradigm that's starting to lose steam. In my opinion the whole obsession over every piece of data is way overblown and companies should turn to a more authentic and personal process. But that's a philosophy conversation for another time

Big data has ruined the NFL, MLB and NBA. Games are boring as heck with the emphasis on analysis.

Big data did not necessarily ruin it. Percentage of hits, getting on base, strike outs, and the like is important, especially compared to the "old baseball" way of recruiting and trading players. But like all good paradigms, people took a good thing way further than it was meant.

agip wrote:

until we decide to have babies again or open the gates to immigration.

Europeans and americans are just too rich and fat and lazy...and they won't have enough babies.

That's the facts.

My boomlet kids and their friends are entering their 30s and starting to contemplate having kids. They’ve put it off about 10 years later than my generation. There should be an uptick in birthdates in the next 5 to 10 years

I agree with those facts, in part.

One issue is at what level stabilization/stagnation will occur—ie today’s close, or a rebounded level?

And, the USA is not europe or JPN. The Japanese are consummate followers, while the euros are consummate bag-rots, which is why many of their young want to come to the US. The US attitude has historically been different and continues to be different IMO, although the gap might be closing with newer generations.

But even euro kids look to american kids for leadership, hipsters being the most recent wave.

Stagflation, maybe. But not certainly.

agip wrote:

Bib #1 wrote:

It took only 25 years for the Dow to retrace back after the 1929 Great Recession

this is a misunderstood fact - first off, a balanced stock/bond portfolio like most people have recovered far, far faster.

second, people bought at the lower prices so they recovered faster that way

most important, the Dow kept rejiggering its components. the broader stock market recovered much faster than the Dow. They kept putting in wrong additions.

Complete nonsense.

Broke through Fibonacci 38.3 retrace level at 2,753 down to 2,740; which opens door to 2,346 12/2018 low. Market is not a bargain. Sorry to disappoint.

What, do all you guys follow the same technical news feed?

Just got a text from a friend saying the exact same thing

Racket wrote:That's an existential issue in big data right now and part of a prevailing paradigm that's starting to lose steam. In my opinion the whole obsession over every piece of data is way overblown and companies should turn to a more authentic and personal process. But that's a philosophy conversation for another time

I didn't write "big data," I talked about value of information, not data. I trade information for money. That information comes in part from data, and in part from experience, knowledge and judgement. The process of turning data into information is where the magic happens, and anything that can be done to leverage any of the components of information (data + experience + knowledge + judgement, combined in some fashion) to make it available at less cost creates a better value proposition. This is where tech comes in, and there is a growing hunger to produce better information quicker, more efficiently. Supply and demand, and all that...