Bib #1 wrote:
agip wrote:
just a reminder here...if someone does choose to sell everything tomorrow...he or she will have received one of the better historical 10 year returns from US stocks: 11% or 12% per year.
Since 2008?
since 2010. Obviously starting in 2008 would bring an even better return.
Bib #1 wrote:
agip wrote:
just a reminder here...if someone does choose to sell everything tomorrow...he or she will have received one of the better historical 10 year returns from US stocks: 11% or 12% per year.
Since 2008?
Oops sorry. I missed the 10 year part
Bib #1 wrote:
agip wrote:
just a reminder here...if someone does choose to sell everything tomorrow...he or she will have received one of the better historical 10 year returns from US stocks: 11% or 12% per year.
Since 2008?
Yep - the returns are about 400% or higher since 2008. Phenomenal. Ignore Igy. He always wants to go back to 2000. Just silly.
dems always for party wrote:
Bib #1 wrote:
Since 2008?
Yep - the returns are about 400% or higher since 2008. Phenomenal. Ignore Igy. He always wants to go back to 2000. Just silly.
Not silly at all. Tech Bubble through Central Bank Bubble.
No sense arguing, you’ll learn the hard way and on your own terms. Best lesson possible.
It's fascinating to watch people flagellate over the one person who seems to actually understand fat-tailed risk.
Futures?.
Well, this might be exciting times. I’m sitting pretty, but I still have a little bit of money in the markets. Do I sell tomorrow? Who knows, it’s fascinating.
It would be funny, in a way, if corona proved to be a pandemic scenario as I described. I thought it had the potential to be, but I thought cooler heads might prevail. Looks like turbulence ahead.
Other than those temporary doomsday scenarios, the fix was in, and working well. I hate to say it because agip says that i say it no matter what, but my overall thesis is being proven correct.
Yay. Meh. I would much rather that there was no corona, and that the fix continued merrily—but now that it is here, in order for my thesis to be really proved, we need to drop twice as much as we have. As has been said, so far this is a sort of regular correction...but is now looking like it has the distinct potential to be more.
While I can hope for a deep cut to enable buying on the cheap, it might be tough to figure out what to buy. I used to know exactly because I was on top of specifics, but now I’m just a general sort. Looks like I will have to do some work.
So Igy if we get the big drop, will you be buying? This is fascinating to watch.
That 10-year...
The gov needs to buy oil and put it in the SPR. That will raise the oil price and send a signal to the algos that all is well.?
If markets tank, the question will be how much of an effect it will have on Drumpf’s re-election chances.
I think even some of his supporters would jump at the chance to throw him under the bus. His economic policy was always the crap part of his platform, because it’s a complicated area and he is a simple guy. Look what he has done to the debt, after having railed against it so strongly.
Biden?
Maserati wrote:
Futures?.
Well, this might be exciting times. I’m sitting pretty, but I still have a little bit of money in the markets. Do I sell tomorrow? Who knows, it’s fascinating.
It would be funny, in a way, if corona proved to be a pandemic scenario as I described. I thought it had the potential to be, but I thought cooler heads might prevail. Looks like turbulence ahead.
Other than those temporary doomsday scenarios, the fix was in, and working well. I hate to say it because agip says that i say it no matter what, but my overall thesis is being proven correct.
Yay. Meh. I would much rather that there was no corona, and that the fix continued merrily—but now that it is here, in order for my thesis to be really proved, we need to drop twice as much as we have. As has been said, so far this is a sort of regular correction...but is now looking like it has the distinct potential to be more.
While I can hope for a deep cut to enable buying on the cheap, it might be tough to figure out what to buy. I used to know exactly because I was on top of specifics, but now I’m just a general sort. Looks like I will have to do some work.
So Igy if we get the big drop, will you be buying? This is fascinating to watch.
That 10-year...
Maserati,
Sure, I’ll buy at levels you would consider preposterous.
Igy
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
TAA wrote:
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
The US should borrow $6 trillion in 100 year bonds. tomorrow. 1%.
use it to pay off maturing bonds for a while.
TAA wrote:
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
I'm hoping! Might pull the trigger on a refi.
TAA wrote:
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
Not likely to zero. As posted earlier, that would be a negative for banks and money markets.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
TAA wrote:
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
Not likely to zero. As posted earlier, that would be a negative for banks and money markets.
Right. It would be a range 0 - .25 so not exactly zero.
Also oil under 31. Expect a "terrorist" attack this week.
SPY (futures) is currently down nearly 20% from highs. How low will it go? I predicted we would see 2850 again several months ago but then doubted myself as stocks continued to rise. Huge drops are rare, but there are a variety of indicators and experts suggesting this could be the beginning of one, much more credible than usual it seems. Can't see why we should expect a 50% drop, but 20-30% seems very likely right now. Even if coronavirus is overblown, the panic selling might become a positive feedback loop... Exciting times again, and this time the FED can't do much.
the idiot wrote:
And if we look at fatal cases. The last seven days in Europe outside Italy, the total count has gone 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 18 and 25.
Contrast this with 16 days of accumulating fatalities in Italy: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 12, 17, 21, 29, 34, 52, 79, 107, 148, 197 and 233. You can see the rest of Europe is about a week behind Italy.
And like Italy, and China, the growth rate will stop accelerating as the number of known cases accumulates. Think about it logarithmically: 197 to 233 is much slower than 21 to 29 or 34 to 52. The graph will flatten out. Full-screen the one at this link and you'll see out-of-China cases have been concave-down on a log scale since late February. The virus is running out of new countries where it can make that big initial concave-up splash.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6or to wave it away as being *the same* as the regular flu (which is roughly 30 times less lethal than this virus).
Not supported by stats. Nobody knows the overall infection rate with COVID-19, only the number of positive-tested people and how many of them die.
agip wrote:
TAA wrote:
10 year is under .5 lol
The Fed will lower rates to zero next week.
The US should borrow $6 trillion in 100 year bonds. tomorrow. 1%.
use it to pay off maturing bonds for a while.
Why not 200 year bonds? Lock in those sweet low interest rates!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The flip side of 11.9% mortgage in 1979 or a 17.9% car loan in 1981.
Think about it before posting stupid stuff.
Only you would consider facts to be “stupid stuff”.
Bad Wigins has made a nonsensical post in reply to me, now my day is complete!
I’m exhausted, have been on conference with some friends. I think we are convening at my place at 5am with popcorn to watch the show.
This may be more living history.
Good night to all, sleep tight. ?
Maserati wrote:
I’m exhausted, have been on conference with some friends. I think we are convening at my place at 5am with popcorn to watch the show.
This may be more living history.
Good night to all, sleep tight. ?
I would be careful of overestimating the power of futures traders. Market makers will show their hand around 8 or so like they always do in these huge pre-market moves