Down goes the Dow

Hey, let’s try to stay civil.

Idiot is taking an impassioned view. I’m not sure why, as he pointed out this may affect us all at a personal level, at some point, and yet others of us remain more dispassionate.

Again, I think the market drawdowns thus far are only a reasonable correction of an overheated market. So corona was a catalyst, big deal. It could have been anything.

-880

Nymex 30.07

-1,100

Barring Central Bank intervention, is tomorrow the day you have a 2,000 point drop?

anything can happen. with this much fear in the market and this much uncertainty we could go thousands of dow points either way.

well we're down 13% now...17% if we open at these levels.

the crazy thing is..that's STILL just a normal correction.

Valuations are close to average...there is massive massive fear in the market - as much fear as there EVER IS no matter what.

The world economy will likely go into a small recession now for the rest of the year...so we drop a bit from these good levels of econ activity. Not a huge catastrophe.

oil at these levels is a pro and a con. Lots of US oil companies will go bankrupt or operate at a loss, but even more companies will save a lot of money.

Everyone can borrow tons of money.

I could easily see, if this is not a zombie apocalypse moment, this being a world-class buying opportunity. VIX 50 man.

agip wrote:

Lots of US oil companies will go bankrupt or operate at a loss, but even more companies will save a lot of money.

Everyone can borrow tons of money.

My thinking as well but it all depends on leverage levels that we don't really know. Small companies could go bankrupt. Can the lenders survive? If they don't will it domino effect upwards?

Maserati wrote:Idiot is taking an impassioned view. I’m not sure why, ...

Email and internet forums, no way to convey body language. I'm being direct and forceful, not sure impassioned is right, but OK. Just trying to help... :-)

A couple things to clarify, to nobody in particular.

I call myself "the idiot" in this thread because I think I am one when it comes to financial markets. But I don't necessarily think I'm a bigger idiot than everyone posting in the thread; we are all "noise traders" to some degree. I'm probably a bigger idiot than some though.

I should have stuck to the COVID-19 narrative about public health and security, and left the markets out of it, since my primary interest and concern has been and is the former, not the latter. That said, to agip's or SP's (don't remember who made the point) comment about the markets already having future virus effects already baked in, all those other market participants would have to have a different view than all those in this thread (all of you have been using some variation of virus-as-fake-news or at least virus-as-overblown-news) and recognize the eventual major impact, OR else I'm out of my head and there will be no impact in North America.

I'm thinking maybe we get a Monday morning bounce. Or maybe not.

the idiot wrote:

all of you have been using some variation of virus-as-fake-news or at least virus-as-overblown-news) and recognize the eventual major impact

Few have asserted this and most are in a speculative phase of "I'm not sure what to think yet, I guess we'll find out." You're far too eager to be on the offensive if you ask me.

This is a similar problem with climate change discussion. Pondering speculation of perhaps a worst case scenario is often rebutted with "I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU, WHY DO YOU HATE SCIENCE SO MUCH GOSH"

Giles Corey wrote:

Racket wrote:

Wow that's harsh coming from someone who self professes to be such an idiot, not to mention in light of the outrageous Illuminati sh!t that gets said on this thread by others, but if you want to talk numbers than please excuse me while I pull the "I have a PhD in math" card. I suspect you're having trouble accurately articulating whatever argument you're trying to make regarding the expected outbreak

What is Fermat's last theorem?

what is 1+1 even

Racket wrote:Few have asserted this and most are in a speculative phase of "I'm not sure what to think yet, I guess we'll find out."

Well, at least three of the regular posters whose contributions I pay attention to (mas, SP and agip) have all expressed some variation of doubt (relative to my own views, of course) about the significance of the coming CV issues. I don't pay much mind to the randoms, but perhaps I've over-generalized.

i've been probably sending a bit of a mixed message. On the one hand, saying we are seeing two steps down, one step up, repeat - which indicates we are headed yet lower. And following that up with i think the markets are looking forward and are ahead of themselves in terms of assessing how much damage has been done to date, meaning: some further bad news (but not all the bad news) is already factored in, undoubtedly. But the significant point is, we are seeing an orderly sell-off, but not all the bad news is factored in yet, just some. And it's been walked down in a fashion that makes it very hard to react in real time unless you somehow had access to overnight markets. So, the idiot, i am not disagreeing with you, it's more like i agree with your long term forecast, but see the short term manipulations that are being used to get us there.

nothing would make me happier, though, than to be proven wrong on this.

I do wonder about how badly we trained we are at handling corrections...we almost don't have them anymore so our 'stick to it' muscles/synapses are very very weak.

Someone should go back to the December 2018 20% correction in this thread and see what we were saying then. No doubt it was pretty apocalyptic. And 2019 turned out to be a +29% year.

If it were like the olde tymes and we had regular 10-15% corrections...we (or certainly I) might not be so freaking terrified. Our VO2 max for investing would be higher.

Right now we are down just 14%.

Futures trend points to test of 12/24/2018 low of 2,346. Bull market is dead if that level is broken.

is there a way anymore to easily go back in the thread? They seem to have changed the coding so you can't see all 2000 pages at ones in an index.

agip wrote:

is there a way anymore to easily go back in the thread? They seem to have changed the coding so you can't see all 2000 pages at ones in an index.

Igy petitioned the brojos to show less history since people were easily digging up his past failed predictions and recommendations. ?

Exactly the opposite, I would love to show how your years of obsession amount to nothing.

10 Year Treasury 0.506%

Lower rates point to systemic stress. Poor for commercial paper, money markets and financial institutions. Disagree it is good for businesses.

0.4955%