Technicals are important because people think they are. They are a whole lot easier to work with than fundamentals. They are a self-fulfilling prophecy.
PPT in overdrive? Saving their bullets for Friday close?
Technicals are important because people think they are. They are a whole lot easier to work with than fundamentals. They are a self-fulfilling prophecy.
PPT in overdrive? Saving their bullets for Friday close?
Maserati wrote:
My point was that I think that there is a greater level of satisfaction today than in the 70’s, but that said current satisfaction is more fragile than that which obtained in the 70’s.
really?
I mean the 70s were a miserable time. recessions, war, watergate, inflation, dead economy, gas lines, mass poverty, everyone looked absolutely terrible, etc. The 70s were basically the worst decade of the postwar period.
I can't believe people feel more fragile now.
Unless the loss of community counts for more than that stuff. Which it very well could.
Maserati wrote:
Technicals are important because people think they are. They are a whole lot easier to work with than fundamentals. They are a self-fulfilling prophecy.
e?
yeah this. Algos and chartists learn to use technicals if they work and then they do work.,
Maserati wrote:
Technicals are important because people think they are.
This may be a first in this thread from me but I flat out disagree. I have done extensive statistical testing of a range of typical technical signals and found absolutely zero meaning.
Maserati wrote:
My point was that I think that there is a greater level of satisfaction today than in the 70’s, but that said current satisfaction is more fragile than that which obtained in the 70’s.
Of course. All those extra homeless folks. Those additional millions put in prison. The tens of millions on Americans on anti depressant drugs. The increasing suicide rate.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Technicals are important because people think they are. They are a whole lot easier to work with than fundamentals. They are a self-fulfilling prophecy.
e?
yeah this. Algos and chartists learn to use technicals if they work and then they do work.,
Algorithms run extremely complex stochastic processes (Ito calculus on martingales and the like, I imagine). Basic accepted basis for stock movement is geometric Brownian and it'd be silly to think you could predict random movement out of that since it's, ya know, random.
That being said, there can be "support levels" if everyone is lining up to buy in at a certain price. If open orders at SPY 300 range in the millions then that's a thing
the idiot wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Technicals are important because people think they are.
This may be a first in this thread from me but I flat out disagree. I have done extensive statistical testing of a range of typical technical signals and found absolutely zero meaning.
I hear you but just look at the moving averages. Like the 200. The market tends to gather around that mark. Not permanently but it isn't random. Or maybe it is, I dunno.
agip wrote:I hear you but just look at the moving averages. Like the 200. The market tends to gather around that mark. Not permanently but it isn't random. Or maybe it is, I dunno.
It's an illusion. With the benefit of easier communication I could show you.
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:I hear you but just look at the moving averages. Like the 200. The market tends to gather around that mark. Not permanently but it isn't random. Or maybe it is, I dunno.
It's an illusion.
so is your fiat currency!!!!!!
Sorry, couldn't help myself
GREAT NEWS BOYS
I've had three clients call yesterday and this morning.
When that happens it's almost a sure thing that the selling is almost over.
100% serious.
I could be wrong, but after the initial coronavirus scare, this market volatility seems to be primarily driven by short-term technical trading.
Just to be clear, I'm sharing my perspective... not fact. If I knew what was going to happen with certainty, I wouldn't be posting it here. :)
agip wrote:
GREAT NEWS BOYS
I've had three clients call yesterday and this morning.
When that happens it's almost a sure thing that the selling is almost over.
100% serious.
Let me know if you decide to sell. Biggest buy indicator ever right there next to the Igy smugness indicator.
Igy, on a scale of 1-10, how smug are you feeling right now and what's the urge to say I told you so?
(if he says anything over an 8 then buy everything in sight)
agip wrote:I've had three clients call yesterday and this morning.
When that happens it's almost a sure thing that the selling is almost over.
Were they calling to sell off their holdings?
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:I've had three clients call yesterday and this morning.
When that happens it's almost a sure thing that the selling is almost over.
Were they calling to sell off their holdings?
oh heck no. Just to hear a voice of calm. that's my job. My calling.
agip wrote:
the idiot wrote:
Were they calling to sell off their holdings?
oh heck no. Just to hear a voice of calm. that's my job. My calling.
remember that balanced portfolios are down low single digits for the year.
conservative portfolios are down maybe 1%.
This is not crisis stuff.
Esp when over 52 weeks everyone is up aroun d 6-8%.
I'm always preaching that volatility will happen so this sort of thing is just my looking smart, having predicted the future.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
oh heck no. Just to hear a voice of calm. that's my job. My calling.
remember that balanced portfolios are down low single digits for the year.
conservative portfolios are down maybe 1%.
This is not crisis stuff.
Esp when over 52 weeks everyone is up aroun d 6-8%.
I'm always preaching that volatility will happen so this sort of thing is just my looking smart, having predicted the future.
With unemployment this low still and wages rising (slowly, but still rising) I just don't see this as affecting consumer confidence much. Classic example of Wall Street vs Main Street. Apple won't hit Q1 numbers but average joe is still gonna buy that next gen iPhone
Bought MSFT.
“Do valuations still “work”?
“Investors sometimes assume that if the market continues to advance despite rich valuations, then the valuation measures must somehow be incorrect. That’s not how valuations work. If overvaluation itself was enough to drive prices lower, one could never observe extremes like 1929, 2000, and today, because the market would have been weighed down by far lesser extremes.“
—John Hussman, March Commentary
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
remember that balanced portfolios are down low single digits for the year.
conservative portfolios are down maybe 1%.
This is not crisis stuff.
Esp when over 52 weeks everyone is up aroun d 6-8%.
I'm always preaching that volatility will happen so this sort of thing is just my looking smart, having predicted the future.
With unemployment this low still and wages rising (slowly, but still rising) I just don't see this as affecting consumer confidence much. Classic example of Wall Street vs Main Street. Apple won't hit Q1 numbers but average joe is still gonna buy that next gen iPhone
Totally agree. The strength that is the US consumer, it has kept the world running. Yes I know there is much consumer credit.