Down goes the Dow

Might buy depending on the levels we see.

The jobs number, lol—you mean the INITIAL jobs number?

Futures plumbing the depths now. I might just buy today, also maybe an etf, no order in yet.

The market usually likes bad news on jobs. No?

VIX at 48...

agip wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS750US750&q=average+debt+of+american+1970+vs.+2020&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjr4Mju9IXoAhWNlXIEHWlHABsQsAR6BAgKEAE

agreed that many tens of millions of americans handle their personal finances very poorly. paying finance charges every month reduces their standard of living. Their choice.

But anyway, the amount paid to cover debts as a ratio of disposable income is a generational lows because of low interest rates. This is a positive.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

I just want to point out that this was literally what I said would happen regarding the goal posts moving. People can and will pull out any arbitrary card like "BUT THERE'S MORE HOUSEHOLD DEBT NOW THAN BACK IN THE GOOD OL DAYS SO WE'RE WORSE OFF"

Maserati wrote:

The essential difference is that the hippies were revolutionary outsiders, whereas the snowflakes are evolutionary insiders. Everything the hippies stood for, they learned outside school, in response to gov’t—but everything the snowflakes stand for, they learned inside school, at the behest of government.

So today, it is the mainstream that is being marginalized...the fish is swallowing the whale. It will take a tectonic shift in attitudes to change this, and I don’t see it. The mainstream has a certain reference standard, judged by which some of them are living the good life; the snowflakes have a different standard, judged by which many of them are living the good life. Time will tell if the snowflake standard changes.

My guess is that this is actually false. Kids went off to college and became hippies just like how kids are going off to college now to become "snowflakes." A lot of it has to do with "aesthetic" in colleges and trending paradigms in social sciences, and there have been quite few since the 60s. The underlying theme has always been somewhat anti-government but also somewhat Marxist revival (which really isn't even Marxism; see also the Frankfurt school). It's just youthful idealism from kids who have never paid taxes and should be encouraged to explore new ideas before going out into the real world. This debate could fill entire novels and it has

the idiot wrote:

Anyone planning to buy today? I've placed some orders to buy a US market ETF if the price drops about 5%.

might not be a bad idea but the weekend is a long time. Might be better to wait until Monday morning just in case some unkind Friday news gets dropped

A great many hippies, if not most, didn’t go to college. Also with the snowflakes I’m talking grade school, public gov’t school, indoctrination. Kids are snowflakes before they ever complete a college app.

MSM and social policy in the 70’s were mos def not working to propagate the hippie message.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

agreed that many tens of millions of americans handle their personal finances very poorly. paying finance charges every month reduces their standard of living. Their choice.

But anyway, the amount paid to cover debts as a ratio of disposable income is a generational lows because of low interest rates. This is a positive.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

I just want to point out that this was literally what I said would happen regarding the goal posts moving. People can and will pull out any arbitrary card like "BUT THERE'S MORE HOUSEHOLD DEBT NOW THAN BACK IN THE GOOD OL DAYS SO WE'RE WORSE OFF"

I know. Let's ignore facts and stats

ok now we're talking

the world is throwing in the towel

Vix 49, up 50% today

that's how you put in bottoms. Keep it up world, good.

agip wrote:

ok now we're talking

the world is throwing in the towel

Vix 49, up 50% today

that's how you put in bottoms. Keep it up world, good.

Time will tell whether this is a "bottom" or not, but in any event stocks are discounted 15-20% below peak values. If Igy's hopes and dreams come to pass it may yet still have been a bad idea to put cash back into the market today. But as I keep reminding people, I AM an idiot, so I traded some of my hard-earned for little bits of companies today...

meh

the hippies were a very brief period of time...it was a tiny movement that had a year or two and then went away as people fell back into the mainstream and got jobs. Other than a few dead enders.

I'm not going to put much meaning into that movement.

Kids today are quite well-behaved...all the key numbers have improved. Drug use, pregnancy, etc. Kids have cleaned up their act pretty well. And they are highly motivated by climate issues.

I have high hopes for this upcoming generation. They'll get out of the brainwashing at University and be workers and parents and good people.

agip wrote:

ok now we're talking

the world is throwing in the towel

Vix 49, up 50% today

that's how you put in bottoms. Keep it up world, good.

I wonder how much foreign banks can withstand before the start facing big liquidity issues

anecdotally, completely without data, usually the 10:30-12:00 period is the worst on days like this. People file their orders and then step away. So the selling pressure lessens in the afternoon.

I"ll be buying at 10:45, probably.

I lived through the 1970s. "Standard of living" doesn't correlate directly with disposable income or debt or other financial metrics. Technology is a huge factor in changes in the standard of living that gets overlooked.

My healthcare is better than kings got in the 1970s. Plus, I have access to things that would have been very expensive or impossible to get 50 years ago. Instead of spending hours or days shopping, I can find it in minutes and have it delivered to my door in two days... same day for some items. How wealthy would I have to be to make that happen in 1970?

My farm gate is solar powered. In 1970, it would have cost a small fortune to run a power line to the gate. My point is that my standard of living is far higher now than in 1970.

As far as the markets are concerned, I'm watching the $SPX to see if the short-term support at 2855 is tested and holds today.

fisky wrote:...I'm watching the $SPX to see if the short-term support at 2855 is tested and holds today.

Not to be a a$$hole, but it really rubs me the wrong way when I read people talking about technical analysis referring to "support levels" and the like. I did a fairly detailed statistical analysis of past market behaviour prior to and following a variety of supposed technical signals (golden cross etc) and posted some of the results on here a couple years back. Unfortunately the tinypic links are dead (that place folded) so I can't dig it up. Anyway, that's a long roundabout way to get to my point, which is that "support levels" and the like (which Igy likes to bounce around also) and a big pile of nonsense, in my not-so-humble opinion, and it bothers me greatly to see otherwise intelligent people use that language like it's a real thing.

That said, I don't get religion either, but don't get bothered about other people having spiritual beliefs, so maybe this shouldn't bug me, I dunno...

I wonder how much of the 49 Vix is due to VXX shorts

My point was that I think that there is a greater level of satisfaction today than in the 70’s, but that said current satisfaction is more fragile than that which obtained in the 70’s.

I agree with Fisky as you noted. The technicals are important because they represent a collective memory. For example a break below 2,855 wipes out buy on the dips since that time. Traders and programs also use those levels to deal-leverage. Of course they work on the upside with resistance levels which you touched earlier in the week. Longer term fundamentals will be the driver, and this market is somewhat broken at this point.