I would not be shocked at all to have a 2,000 point drop near term. Could happen in one day.
I would not be shocked at all to have a 2,000 point drop near term. Could happen in one day.
agip wrote:
Is it just me or does today's market not feel as heavy as previous down 3% days? I have no dependable day to day feel for the markets but today just doesnt' feel as savage as the other down days.
I'm not predicting anything but we could rally into the close or tomorrow.
Vix hit 41 today - that's 'middle of the financial crisis' type fear levels.
I spent the day selling half of my long term bonds - took a very nice profit there.
Some of you might remember that a many months ago I sold some bonds and threw the money at my mortgage instead. Turns out that was a mistake. I would have done better to keep the money in bonds. So I was wrong then. But I do like having a tiny mortgage that will be gone this year.
Daily reminder that boomers like agip are HOARDING cash and keeping honest hard working Millennials like me out of the housing market with their all cash offers and etc
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Is it just me or does today's market not feel as heavy as previous down 3% days? I have no dependable day to day feel for the markets but today just doesnt' feel as savage as the other down days.
I'm not predicting anything but we could rally into the close or tomorrow.
Vix hit 41 today - that's 'middle of the financial crisis' type fear levels.
I spent the day selling half of my long term bonds - took a very nice profit there.
Some of you might remember that a many months ago I sold some bonds and threw the money at my mortgage instead. Turns out that was a mistake. I would have done better to keep the money in bonds. So I was wrong then. But I do like having a tiny mortgage that will be gone this year.
Daily reminder that boomers like agip are HOARDING cash and keeping honest hard working Millennials like me out of the housing market with their all cash offers and etc
F you man Gen X rules
Another genx here, and so is Idiot.
I know I am hoarding cash, and paid cash for a piece of RE—all after age 50.
Older generations were doing the same thing to me when I was Racket’s age. Hey Racket how about paying 13-15% on a mortgage? You wimp!?
Maserati wrote:
Another genx here, and so is Idiot.
I know I am hoarding cash, and paid cash for a piece of RE—all after age 50.
Older generations were doing the same thing to me when I was Racket’s age. Hey Racket how about paying 13-15% on a mortgage? You wimp!?
Honestly I can't wait to be a boomer for whatever comes after gen Z
agip wrote:Vix hit 41 today - that's 'middle of the financial crisis' type fear levels.
Been in meetings all day, surfaced just 15 minutes before the close, saw that and decided to put some cash back into the market. Rolling the dice... :-)
Somebody earlier asked how I'd managed to buy low and sell high in recent days... what I meant was that I'd been lucky to buy and sell near the peaks and troughs of these recent 3-4 % daily swings. Probably a dangerous game I'm playing, but hey it's my money.
On mortgages.... I took my first car loan in the mid-80s, and that experience of interest rates in the teens had a lasting effect on me that's cost me money on every mortgage I've ever taken, since I'm wired to choose the safety of 5-year fixed term mortgages, which have not been best value once since we bought our first house in 1992... Idiot!
Don’t worry, Racket—we lived in the immediate shadow of the boomers, and were/are thus essentially invisible. They are like my nemesis. I have always hoped that I would live long enough to see a world without them.
With any luck...
San Dimas High School Football Rules!
Anyway, that wasn't the close I had in mind but there was a rally at the close and we finished the afternoon where we started the afternoon.
I just get a sense that buyers are starting to poke around for bargains. Which is how this thing is supposed to work.
Either that or I'm just getting used to 900 point down days.
Yep idiot, imagine having had any money back then and having gotten 15% interest on it. Sometimes more!
Maserati wrote:
Yep idiot, imagine having had any money back then and having gotten 15% interest on it. Sometimes more!
...but handing back 13% from inflation...
Just amazing to look at the high inflation rates from inside my lifetime.
9,13, 8, 10%. 6% as late as 1990.
And you can see the relationship between the fed funds rate and inflation.
Fed funds used to be higher than the inflation rate...only in the last decades has the fed funds rate become about the same or below.
Hello technology! Amazing how much better business is today than before. Which is one fault Igy has. He seem to think that businesses are no more efficient than before, that inflation is as tricky as it was before, that the econ cycle is the same as it was before.
Fact is, all that is much better now and that is why stock valuations have come up and deserve to have come up. it's just better now.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093
as an aside, the measurement of inflation is a devil that has infected politics.
mismeasuring inflation (and health c are) is the great reason for all those false 'US workers made the same in 1970 as they do today' type stats.
Any of us boomers or Xers know that living standards are massively higher for almost everyone now compared to the 70s.
But sanders types will use these bad stats to make a political point.
[quote]agip wrote:
Any of us boomers or Xers know that living standards are massively higher for almost everyone now compared to the 70s.
R U out of your effin mind?
Stay at home moms, working dads with no college debt, putting 4 kids thru college and with a vacation home.
No billionaires. 50% of the nation's wealth not in a few hands
Giles Corey wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
Any of us boomers or Xers know that living standards are massively higher for almost everyone now compared to the 70s.
R U out of your effin mind?
Stay at home moms, working dads with no college debt, putting 4 kids thru college and with a vacation home.
No billionaires. 50% of the nation's wealth not in a few hands
how old are you?
Sixty six.
My memory is fine.
I don't know what nation your grew up in.
The union busting 1980s, the sell-out of the Dems to the monied interests under Clinton, the outsourcing of manufacturing to 3rd world nations.
Yeah right. The Middle Class is much better off now
Maserati wrote:
Another genx here, and so is Idiot.
I know I am hoarding cash, and paid cash for a piece of RE—all after age 50.
Older generations were doing the same thing to me when I was Racket’s age. Hey Racket how about paying 13-15% on a mortgage? You wimp!?
We bought our first house in 1979 at 11.9% interest. Two years later bought a car at 17.9% interest.
Giles Corey wrote:
The union busting 1980s, the sell-out of the Dems to the monied interests under Clinton, the outsourcing of manufacturing to 3rd world nations.
Yeah right. The Middle Class is much better off now
I don't feel like fighting this fight again but there is virtually no number that shows that living standards in the 1970s were higher than they are now. It's a fantasy of wrong memories, misunderstanding of economics and the human inclination to ALWAYS believe that the past was better than the present.
You can reply all you want - I refuse to get into this again because there is absolutely no validity to what you are seem to be saying, and nothing I could ever say would change your mind.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1235661139553538050
Ghost, I beg you to not post anything more about Hussman until he has proven that he can be a solid investor. Until his favorite fund has proven to be a solid fund. Deal?