Down goes the Dow

and keep in mind the gender break here...in china this was pretty much a male problem. Probably because half of chinese men smoke and very few chinese women smoke.

Maybe this virus can't really spread in a population of healthy lungs such as europe and the US. Or will have a different path anyway.

The biggest issue is the trajectory of investor and public behavior. My barber has noticed a significant drop in business, my wife could not find hand soap at the grocery store, and a colleague told me that our local Costco was stripped of toilet paper and bottled water as in similar reporting.

agip wrote:...Maybe this virus can't really spread in a population of healthy lungs such as europe and the US. Or will have a different path anyway.

you are surely working hard to rationalize away this fake news...

The largest concentrations of recent cases outside China are in South Korea (4812 as of yesterdays WHO daily situation report), Italy (2036), Iran (1501), Diamond Princess cruise ship (706), Japan (268), France (191), Germany (157), Spain (114) and Singapore (108). Each of these locations has had growth of cases following the same early curves as observed in China.

Pull your head out of the sand agip. I don't suggest you panic, but I assure you this will reach your community in coming weeks and months, so please pay attention to it as a real thing, not another FAKE NEWS virus that will just fizzle out...

That'll be $0.02, which I will happily receive into my recently volatile trading account. :-)

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The biggest issue is the trajectory of investor and public behavior. My barber has noticed a significant drop in business, my wife could not find hand soap at the grocery store, and a colleague told me that our local Costco was stripped of toilet paper and bottled water as in similar reporting.

What does that have to do with investor behavior?

Something new?

Old people and smokers are dying, that’s nothing new.

Some people are getting sick around the world, like the cold, flu, meningitis, etc, is nothing new.

Prepper demand brought forward is not diminished economic activity, it might actually be increased as new preppers are created.

In today’s world, something that is a month or two old is nothing new.

The health effects will not have a negative economic impact, depending on how ridiculous quarantine and treatment become. Supply shock is real, but has already begun to be priced in. News cycle fatigue has set in—look at how instantly news pivots to politics—and voilà the markets are up as corona deepens outside China.

If it only blossoms for say 2 months like in CHN, then who cares. This, too, shall pass. People take it in stride. People think it has been overblown, and I think they are correct.

All “official declarations “ mean is that funding comes from a certain source, and certain obligations are triggered.

I do believe many will get sick in the third world, and that many smokers and elderky could die as a result. Economically speaking, third-worlders are not terribly significant, nor is air travel, oil and other commodity demand, tourism, etc in such places significant to the US economy...unless you consider CAN the third world.?

But the bottom line is the news, and the point down to which expectations have been ratcheted.

This is no different from a snowstorm or a hurricane—we are sold out of staples, some are hoarding, some are prepping, some are leaving/staying put who normally would not do so, some will die, there will be economic dislocation.

Yes I know of the big disruptions, I was the one who told you about them a long time ago, that they would be serious. That reaction cycle is finished. So far there is no new news. Until there is, it’s business as usual, including the largest point gain in history in response to what might have been the Fed’s greatest relative rate cut in history.

My buy is now even, even after a -800 point day yesterday.

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The biggest issue is the trajectory of investor and public behavior. My barber has noticed a significant drop in business, my wife could not find hand soap at the grocery store, and a colleague told me that our local Costco was stripped of toilet paper and bottled water as in similar reporting.

What does that have to do with investor behavior?

?

Bloomberg out, endorsing...

...Biden.

Almost a done deal, absent a popular backlash.

I just heard something interesting from some “health official” on the radio, to the effect that if corona was not in the news, then many people wouldn’t even call their provider over it—and if that’s the case, then to not change their behavior. ???

Maybe I misunderstood.

Up 800 now, and rising. Maybe on Bloomberg news.

agip wrote:

and keep in mind the gender break here...in china this was pretty much a male problem. Probably because half of chinese men smoke and very few chinese women smoke.

Maybe this virus can't really spread in a population of healthy lungs such as europe and the US. Or will have a different path anyway.

Holy motivated reasoning agip.

Also, if you think people in Europe don't smoke, then I have some news that will shock you.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

and keep in mind the gender break here...in china this was pretty much a male problem. Probably because half of chinese men smoke and very few chinese women smoke.

Maybe this virus can't really spread in a population of healthy lungs such as europe and the US. Or will have a different path anyway.

Holy motivated reasoning agip.

Also, if you think people in Europe don't smoke, then I have some news that will shock you.

yeah and apparently the gender break wasn't as sharp as I thought it was in china - only midly more men than women got it.

but certainly chinese men smoke a huge amount. Half of italian men don't smoke, I'm sure. or french. in a disease that kills by wrecking your lungs, that's got to make some difference. Although medical PCness doesn't let doctors talk much about that sort of thing.

Yeah lol I would say 80% of euros I know smoke, and I know many.

It is men, women, young, old, rich, poor—doesn’t matter. I always find it fascinating, and disappointing.

Also, much more than half of mainland Chinese men smoke, anecdotally. I would put it easily above 80% in my experience.

Maserati wrote:

I just heard something interesting from some “health official” on the radio, to the effect that if corona was not in the news, then many people wouldn’t even call their provider over it—and if that’s the case, then to not change their behavior. ???

Maybe I misunderstood.

Up 800 now, and rising. Maybe on Bloomberg news.

well sure - in the early days of an epidemic no one cares. 100 people have this thing. How would anyone know or care except for the media pushing out the story?

SPX down around 9% from its highs now. up 8% from its lows.

well 100 people have this thing for sure. Probably many times that number actually have the virus.

Also, lots of euros smoke chinese cigarettes, because they can get them on the cheap.

Wikipedia thinks that there are more smokers in some European countries (e.g., France) than in China, and smoking rate in Italy is similar (slightly lower):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_tobacco_use

this smoking thing is not a hill I'm willing to die on.

“Airports empty”

In China maybe. My recent experience:

Schiphol: full

Heathrow: full

Frankfurt: full

Basel: full

Geneva: beyond full

JFK: full

1-4 weeks ago.

And as for that great economic engine that is the Italian school system shutting down, that is probably a net positive economic event. You can bet that all the nepotistic employees are getting full pay, essentially a paid vacation. Makes me wonder when their normal vacation time was scheduled.

They were to have a week off in early April, plus associated breaks earlier depending in what part of the country.

A complete nothing-burger.

Am always searching for flights, there are no deals as of yet. None. No car rental deals, either.