When will legacy carmakers overtake Tesla EV sales?

Your post just described exactly what position I told you Tesla is in currently. (Although you are confused on the meaning of early adopters.) Glad to see you agree with me.

Take up a short position against tesla! Put your money where your mouth is! See how that works out for you! They'll be selling 5 million cars a year in 5 years!

I've made decent profit from TSLA puts this year. Should have bought more on Friday.

Shows how overpriced the stock is. I would take profits if you're green. I feel bad for all the bagholders who bought at 1200+. I can see this stock falling under 400.

So you were lying about Europe?

I'm not confused at all. When a product is dominating certain markets, then by definition it is not in the early adopter stage.

Good suggestion. That's exactly what he should do.

Do you have a reason you think it will go under 400?

This is why I say that by 2030, 90% of all light duty vehicles sold in the US will have a plug.

Those who need long distance towing will make up a lot of that last 10%. It's the one use case where EVs really struggle. EVs have outstanding towing capacity. But the problem is that the drag coefficient on a typical trailer is really terrible, so it kills range at highway speeds.

Gas powered trucks just make up for this with a larger gas tank. But to overcome this in an EV you need a more aerodynamic payload and/or a larger battery. And that gets expensive.

I am correct about how the Tesla charging stations are currently working for users in Europe.

It is okay for you to be wrong and for Tesla to not work perfectly.

I am correct. We can move on.

Sigh.

Perhaps you should strive to understand concepts instead of just cutting and pasting a Google search. You are conflating two concepts.

I gave you THE reason Tesla has poor marks on reliability and quality AND has high customer satisfaction scores. And it is not because of some grand conspiracy by Consumer Reports, JD Power, NTHSA and “lamestream” media as you have stated.

I am correct. We can move on.

So you admit you were lying. Your scenario with long waits is not happening in Europe.

You are dead wrong, just like that person was who made the same argument in 2019.

I never suggested there was any conspiracy.

PE over 100 in a rising interest bear market/recession. Losing market share. Government subsidies drying up. BTC falling off a cliff. Musk owns many shares and is irresponsible and unpredictable. If he sells, it will tank.

Thanks for posting your observations. I always appreciate hearing a more well-reasoned bear case for Tesla. I'll give the bull response.

A bear market/recession will harm any stock. But Tesla sales continue to explode, even in the bad economy.

Government subsidies are always a wildcard. There is an increased realization that legacy US automakers will be in big trouble if we don't get any new EV subsidies. This will massively increase Tesla's profit margins if it happens. So instead of subsidies drying up, we could get new ones.

BTC ownership by Tesla is a drop in the bucket. It has basically no effect.

It's true that you never know what Elon will do. But selling more of his holdings doesn't seem likely. And it's possible that if the Twitter deal gets settled in his favor Elon will buy back his Tesla stock.

As for P/E, we are already seeing Tesla's PE go lower and lower because Tesla's profits are exploding. I think if you look at what analysts are expecting for a forward PE, then it becomes hard to argue for a $400 stock price.

The real discussion ought to be about living in a world where people would use automobiles much less. Replacing the insane and unsustainable number of ICE vehicles, especially in the US, with EVs doesn't answer larger questions regarding making cities, large and small, livable and sustainable for human beings.

Europe has a huge jump start on livable, human-focused cities where a family might only need one small car and can walk, cycle and take transit for most all of their transportation needs. The US is decades behind and most of our cities, suburbs and exurbs are ONLY livable through massive use of cars, usually with only one occupant.

I want to live somewhere I can choose between walking, safely riding a bike or taking transit, not a place where my choices come down to two ICE cars or two EVs.

Taken in this context, EVs ARE NOT THE ANSWER.

Oh, and f-ck Mush. I'm glad his idiotic rocket to Mars blew a motor yesterday. So hubristic for someone like Mush to be totally OK with wrecking this planet, because hey, it'll take much longer to wreck the next one. Tech bros will be the downfall of us all.

I agree with you about using autos a lot less. We definitely need cities that are more walkable and suited to bicycles.

But automobiles are not going away. And EVs are far more sustainable than what we've got now.

As I've said before, there are a lot of things about Musk I don't like. But I defy you to find anyone in the business community who is doing more to convert us over to sustainable energy.

Rooting for failure of his rockets is just crass. Without satellites and other advances from our space program, we'd have a much harder time understanding and solving the climate crisis.

I was referring to the government subsidies that Tesla gets. Much of their profit came from selling regularity credits which won't last forever. Tesla stock price could fall 75% and it would still have a higher PE than Microsoft, Google and Apple. Tesla peaked around $130/share before Covid. Nothing has fundamentally changed about the company since then besides hype.

news.bloombergtax.com

Tesla Reveals Profit Bump From Government Credits After SEC Push

Tesla Inc. revealed in its recent annual financial statement how much regulatory credits fueled its profits only after U.S. market regulators compelled it to do so, documents released Wednesday show.

Link:news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accoun...