Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.
Giles Corey wrote:
Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.
Not Igy! He timed it before the fact. He has been positioned for a crash for years now. It’s a wise man who foregoes years of a bull market in order to sustain smaller losses when the inevitable crash happens.
#HSGFX
“At the market open of Friday, January 24, our estimate of likely 12-year nominal total returns for a conventional passive investment portfolio (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Treasury bills) fell to just 0.04% annually, below even the previous record of 0.34% set in August 1929. This extreme reflects the combination of record equity market valuations and depressed interest rates. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination that joins insult with injury, creating weak prospects for the future returns of passive, diversified buy-and-hold strategies, across the board.
Understand this. The more glorious this bubble becomes in hindsight, the more dismal future investment returns become in foresight. The higher the price investors pay for a set of future cash flows, the lower the return they will enjoy over time. Whatever they’re doing, it’s not ‘investment.’”
—John Hussmann, February Market Commentary
Thanks for the shout out, Igy! Hopefully if I keep making these predictions, I might actually get one right. Then I can fool more people into buying my funds or subscribing to my newsletter. What was it P.T. Barnum said?
#HSGFX
Strictly speaking, there can be no such thing as an ‘investment issue’ in the absolute sense, i.e., implying that it remains an investment regardless of price… Had the same attitude been taken by the purchaser of common stocks in 1928-1929, the term ‘investment’ would not have been the tragic misnomer that it was. But in proudly applying the designation ‘blue chips’ to the high-priced issues chiefly favored, the public unconsciously revealed the gambling motive at the heart of its supposed investment selections.”
– Benjamin Graham & David Dodd, Security Analysis
But in proudly applying that it remains and depressed investment selections. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combinations. That’s not ‘investment’ would not ‘investors pay for a set of its supposed interest rates. The high-price investment issues chiefly favored, the return the tragic misnomer they’re doing, it’s not ‘investors pay for the lower that it remains an investment’ would not an “equilibrium” situations. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination of record equity.
Johannes wrote:
But in proudly applying that it remains and depressed investment selections. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combinations. That’s not ‘investment’ would not ‘investors pay for a set of its supposed interest rates. The high-price investment issues chiefly favored, the return the tragic misnomer they’re doing, it’s not ‘investors pay for the lower that it remains an investment’ would not an “equilibrium” situations. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination of record equity.
Maybe i am in a post-run fog or something, but can't make heads or tails of this one....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Igy, in the final analysis, in reference to said market correction, some of us used it to load up massively on the market leaders, and in my case: Tech.
Enough said.
Funny.
You and every index fund out there.
You are herding with everyone else.
Nothing special.
Actually foolish.
Oh well.
LOL.
seattle prattle wrote:
Johannes wrote:
But in proudly applying that it remains and depressed investment selections. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combinations. That’s not ‘investment’ would not ‘investors pay for a set of its supposed interest rates. The high-price investment issues chiefly favored, the return the tragic misnomer they’re doing, it’s not ‘investors pay for the lower that it remains an investment’ would not an “equilibrium” situations. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination of record equity.
Maybe i am in a post-run fog or something, but can't make heads or tails of this one....
It makes as much sense as some of Igy’s posts.
nelvin wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Maybe i am in a post-run fog or something, but can't make heads or tails of this one....
It makes as much sense as some of Igy’s posts.
Igy's posts makes sense. They just don't make cents.
See what i did there?
?
Good one. ?
We're still holding out hope you'll join our team. You know, the bulls. A real bull. Not that 20% in equities bull.
See what i did there?
Seattle,
No, I think you are delusional, but a good person. Hope it works out for you, because it is going to be tough on a lot of people. Not a situation to be taken lightly in my view. The Fed saved investors a year ago. It is impossible to distort market prices forever. At some point the financial system will be challenged by enormous debt, aging population, dysfunctional politics, saturated demand, extended valuations, and a nation living beyond its means. The top 10 percent have done well, own most of the stocks, while the bottom 50 percent work two jobs to make ends meet. Not surprising several of the leading Democratic candidates are the epitome of socialists. I find it appropriate as well as interesting.
Igy
So is it worse to have missed out on most of the bull, or to be bitten by the bear?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No, I think you are delusional, but a good person. Hope it works out for you, because it is going to be tough on a lot of people. Not a situation to be taken lightly in my view. The Fed saved investors a year ago. It is impossible to distort market prices forever. At some point the financial system will be challenged by enormous debt, aging population, dysfunctional politics, saturated demand, extended valuations, and a nation living beyond its means. The top 10 percent have done well, own most of the stocks, while the bottom 50 percent work two jobs to make ends meet. Not surprising several of the leading Democratic candidates are the epitome of socialists. I find it appropriate as well as interesting.
Igy
The market may take a beating. Those of us sitting on exponential unrealized (and in some cases, realized) capital gains have very good chances of getting out with some profits intact. On the other hand, those that had the means to participate in this run-up and either chose not to, and/or fail to recognize the rewards of having done so, are the delusional ones, in my opinion at least.
As for the assessment of the demographics of those that have and have not reaped the benefits of the market gains, i largely agree with you.
And, well, okay - you're a good guy, too. There i said it. Let's move on.
John Hussman wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.
Not Igy! He timed it before the fact. He has been positioned for a crash for years now. It’s a wise man who foregoes years of a bull market in order to sustain smaller losses when the inevitable crash happens.
#HSGFX
Weak attempt at deflection.
Panic over the week-end or a short lived sell off due to the virus?
Giles Corey wrote:
Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.
How could it be done any way other than after the fact?
Giles Corey wrote:
John Hussman wrote:
[quote]Giles Corey wrote:
Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.
Not Igy! He timed it before the fact. He has been positioned for a crash for years now. It’s a wise man who foregoes years of a bull market in order to sustain smaller losses when the inevitable crash happens.
#HSGFX
Weak attempt at deflection.
Panic over the week-end or a short lived sell off due to the virus?[/quote]
How do you think this development (headline just moments ago) will bear on the answer to your question: "Chinese central bank to pump $173 billion into economy in coronavirus fight"