Down goes the Dow

Low hanging fruit. Going after Igy for his stock predictions is no challenge. He’s not called the DGTD Contrarian fir nothing.

I just want to make sure it still holds his seal of disapproval, okay?

If it’s a winner, he disapproves.

seattle prattle wrote:

POST FROM 07/24/2018

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

No problem in their business, you just hold them at ridiculous valuations. You think just like ever investor blinded by greed.

What is wrong headed is your view of how this ends.

We’ll see.

Igy

Microsoft reported earning after market close today, and at this time is up approximately 64% since then.

Thoughts?

OK. My view has not changed. Good company, but poor investment at 2018 and 2020 prices. Since 2014 the PE has moved from 15 to 30. During that same period debt has tripled to $178 Billion. It will not be necessary for me to repost this down the road. You will learn the hard way. That happens to investors like you when the bubble bursts.

Gruntz wrote:

If it’s a winner, he disapproves.

“A rigid observance of old time canons of stock investment would have dictated the sale of one’s holdings at a substantial profit in upswing and heroic abstinence from further participation in the market until after 1929 collapse when prices were again attractive” - Graham & Dodd

Nailed it!

TSLA up more than 10% already on yesterday's earnings. What a kooky stock. Happy to own a tiny piece. :-)

the idiot wrote:

TSLA up more than 10% already on yesterday's earnings. What a kooky stock. Happy to own a tiny piece. :-)

Such bubble B.S. On a GAAP basis the company was -27% less profitable quarter over quarter, and -25% less profitable on a year over year basis. I can’t believe the gullibility of investors. Look for yourself, oh and get past the slick presentation and look at the numbers.

Watching virus developments closely. Have some boots on the ground in CHN, even they have no real info as comm is fractured. Isolation abounds, which is good—and apparently people are sticking to it.

I am tempted to liquidate tomorrow before I leave town. I don’t see any significant overall gains over the next month or so, and I will have nothing to worry about. End of day ramp today was classic, I actually had some gain off it. But really...where could things go this month? Good earnings projected into the future? Not seeing it, too much fog at the moment. Gains require clarity.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Look for yourself, oh and get past the slick presentation and look at the numbers.

Except for the only one that matters, that is.

TSLA 2019 loss per share -$4.19....translation....PE n/a

Slapstick wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Look for yourself, oh and get past the slick presentation and look at the numbers.

Except for the only one that matters, that is.

You’ll hold on and lose your ass.

?

Maserati wrote:

Watching virus developments closely. Have some boots on the ground in CHN, even they have no real info as comm is fractured. Isolation abounds, which is good—and apparently people are sticking to it.

I am tempted to liquidate tomorrow before I leave town. I don’t see any significant overall gains over the next month or so, and I will have nothing to worry about. End of day ramp today was classic, I actually had some gain off it. But really...where could things go this month? Good earnings projected into the future? Not seeing it, too much fog at the moment. Gains require clarity.

First human-to-human transmission confirmed in US

9,000+ confirmed cases worldwide, 212 fatalities

There's real complacency on the coronavirus risks. The market should be down just based on all the supply chain disruption and shutdowns. If there were more transparency I'd feel better.

The following two posts were posted on 02/03/2018, almost two years ago:

seattle prattle wrote:

From Investopedia: "One of the reasons Amazon’s P/E is so high is that it has been sacrificing profits in order to expand aggressively on a wide-scale, thus, keeping earnings suppressed and the P/E ratio very high."

Read more: How can the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio mislead investors? | Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070214/how-can-pricetoearnings-pe-ratio-mislead-investors.asp#ixzz561qRZnud

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You can go back through the history of the US stock market and read similar justifications. You accepted on faith the MLP story. AMZN is certainly getting away with that currently. I think the point, which I believe is valid, it won’t last. During the next bear market high valuation stocks will get crushed, AMZN will be no exception. The fact that it is over owned will lead to more mean reversion.

Amazon posted earnings after market close today and is up over 10% after hours. It is up approximately 53% since these opinions were posted. P/E of approximately 83.

Thoughts?

“You can go back through the history of the US stock market and read similar justifications. You accepted on faith the MLP story. AMZN is certainly getting away with that currently. I think the point, which I believe is valid, it won’t last. During the next bear market high valuation stocks will get crushed, AMZN will be no exception. The fact that it is over owned will lead to more mean reversion.”

But nothing lasts. The market goes up, then goes down, then repeats. You tell us what everybody already knows.

Igy, you say it won't last, and meanwhile, some two years later, it's increased its value by more than half again.

AMZN 12/24/2018. $1,307.00

MSFT 12/17/2018 $97.23

AAPL 12/31/2018 $142.00

FB 12/17/2018 $123.42

Mild market correction.

Good luck when things get really bad.

“Of course that won’t happen. These companies are special.”

Then this message is for your children.

Enough said.