Down goes the Dow

I would suppose there's always obscene^3. I would hope so, anyway.

wondering wrote:

What is a “life turd”?

A good description of your existence since birth.

I will pray for you some more.

The Lord helps those that help themself.

mister wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1218289517498642432

I don't think anyone is denying there are winners and there are losers.

You just happen to be someone who's been (and still is) a loser for the past 10 years.

Winners- Those who recognized "It's different this time"

Losers- Those who didn't.

Idiot!

I saw you initials in email. In all honesty I have never had any affirmative desire to track down old buds, but this accidental intersection is fun.

Another hint: over beers, you once regaled me about an episode from when you were a kid that involved a large inflated structure and a sharp knife!?

One more hint: I saved your hide once in a regrettable affair that involved the parade square and a biffy. You swore myself and another guy to secrecy, and we kept that promise. I don’t remember, but I think we all had to do extra drill or something of the sort, along with confinement to base. IIRC someone really wanted to get you for it. BTW I think you might still owe me a beer for that one!?

Mas, my defective brain seems to have the capacity to protect me from memories that might be embarrassing to me. I’ve got nothing...

I’m still in cash cushioning mode, selling off a bit here and there to stock the shelves to buy bargains when the market dips. This stock rally is scaring the crap out of me. Which must mean it will go on forever, since every single time I’ve trusted my gut about investments it has bit me on the a$$... :-)

...and yet, you’re still going with your gut.

Trying to figure out the markets in a macro sense has always been a source of debate. I have been either lucky or correct about all the big down events, and most of the up trends. I have what sound to some like good reasons for my predictions for this period, and the markets have performed exactly as I had predicted. Whether my reasoning (guessing) has any merit at all is an endlessly arguable but practically unanswerable question.

My “gut” feelings about individuals and institutions have never really changed during my adult life, but the level at which I consider them never used to be practically applicable to the aggregate markets. Maybe now it’s different, which is part of the basis of my command-and-control financial system theory (subsuming financial assets). C&C have been concentrated in individuals and small groups thereof to a great extent.

So who knows. I’m still in for a while, although I am sitting on a good amount of dry powder.

Another hint: we spent the first summer together on campus because, I think, we were “bilingual enough” to not have to go to CMR.

Loser will be you when you learn it is not different this time.

Maserati wrote:

...and yet, you’re still going with your gut..

Well, that’s not quite entirely true, I’ve given this quite a lot of deliberate, careful thought. But, my screen name in this discussion was chosen purposefully... :-)

I barely remember that summer of French training, but I did manage to get exempted from French classes by the end of second year, which for me was the objective; five periods each week when I could sleep. One evening a group of us dug a hole in the parade square, then under reconstruction, and buried a time capsule in a metal box. That’s coming up on 35 years this summer. I’ve no recollection what kind of stuff we may have put there.

the idiot wrote:I’m still in cash cushioning mode, selling off a bit here and there to stock the shelves to buy bargains when the market dips. ...

Just to clarify what I mean by this. Our investment accounts make up about 35% of our net worth, excluding the present value of a defined benefits pension one of us will get on retirement. The other 65% is held in equity in real estate and holdings of company shares (which have to be sold on eventual retirement). Within the investment accounts, the breakdown is roughly:

Cash / cash equivalents 27%

High quality (moderate-low yield) corporate bonds 18%

gold-tracking ETF 9%

International (whole world and China) equity ETFs 5%

Canadian index-tracking equity ETFs 20%

US index-tracking ETFs (mix of SP500 and NASDAQ) 17%

"Sexy" (tech, very large cap) US stocks 4%

The cash has steadily crept up over the last year; it was 0% in 2018. Right now it feels like we're sitting on too much cash, and hedging a bit too much with gold and bonds, but we will retire in 2-5 years and 5-10 years, and I'm gun shy about losing too much of our nest egg. If I were young again, or if the dollar amounts were bigger, no doubt the profile would have a different breakdown today.

I read Hussman whenever I need a laugh. Based on this, I’m obviously not the only one.

Igy - stocks only go up

agip - what's this I hear about you giving away your wealth to someone else? I'm flattered that you've no doubt preemptively chosen me as a recipient and I pledge to spend no more than half of it on frivolous sh!t I don't need

I can't even put into words how happy this TSLA short squeeze is making me.

Elon Musk is one of my heroes, so glad to see him having a moment here. And his rockets are working real well.

And I love little more than a good short squeeze. Just watching it is amazing.

Up another 6% today.

It'll end with TSLA issusing a Saturn 5 size load of new shares, to fund operations for another five years, but until that happens, oh man this is fun.

I have no tsla shares, other than through index funds.

Igy - stocks only go up

Racket-yes, in the biggest asset bubble ever

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1219617010176417796

Yes it is!

Proven by your predictions since you got on here, and why they will happen.

Obviously, they have not.

?