Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2019 (with 9% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2019 (with 9% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Yep, which is one reason why people are looking at it, like “it’s time has come”. Idk, I think the same as you.
Good thing I sold some stuff yesterday, lile WFC and BA, both down today. Will ne a mixed day for me today, I am AMZN-heavy.
New records for all three major indices!!!
Maserati wrote:
Yep, which is one reason why people are looking at it, like “it’s time has come”. Idk, I think the same as you.
Good thing I sold some stuff yesterday, lile WFC and BA, both down today. Will ne a mixed day for me today, I am AMZN-heavy.
AMZN is my second largest holding of actual equities, though i sold a little over the last week in frustration at it underperforming for months now. Dumped my small BA position about a moth ago, and glad i did, with it's regular string of bad news.
Well, ended up doing pretty well today anyway. One of those periods where even a meh day is great by any other standard.
Not really doing a lot of trading, just sort of steady in my US megacaps. What a period this is. Even my b&h is up a whopping 5.5% on the year, only halfway through Jan! Crazy.
Annualized at 132%, I can tell this is a buy and hold investment.
?
today was better than a meh day for me, being heavy on AAPL and Tech ETF in general. Up about the same ytd. I'm starting to believe that this may actually be a solid year after all, and that wasn't what it was pegged to supposed to be.
Maserati wrote:
Yeah Seattle I have been saying that for years. There are those who sell for cash to meet living expenses, but there are others who don’t need the cash in that manner—and that includes all the institutionals, sovereigns, insurers, hedgies, and well-heeled individuals.
Btw parking spots are doing well. I just received some eye-watering unsolicited offers on art that I swore I would never sell...and I didn’t sell. Where would the money go? To cash??
I used to find it difficult to understand people who were well-off but not very rich, who died and left behind things they could have sold to cover debts, etc. Now I get it. Unfortunately I stand to inherit nothing because my fam has no money or things, but if they did, I could see taking possession of it and just passing it on when I die.
Parking becomes an issue. With bonds etc you risk losing to inflation and its corollary currency devaluation, not to mention plain old default. Yes gov has acted as insurer for some things like mbs, so there is that—but it’s never as good as it seems on paper.
....
agip wrote:
name withheld by request wrote:
Likewise, same here. Tempted to sell everything and just live off of something like a 4% dividend payments or some other fixed asset kind of thing. That would feel like the prudent thing to do. But if I had had that kind of sentiment all along, look what we would have missed out on.
yeah at some point you have to say 'I have enough money so I don't want to risk losing too much of it should there be an accident.'
I do have enough money.
I have around 70% of my portfolio in risky assets...I'll probably cut it down to 60%. At least I *should* cut it down to 60%.
If we lose 20% in a six weeks again, like in 2018, and I have not taken some profits, I will be very disappointed with myself.
Been thinking about this general point and at this time it's all about that thing Maserati is talking about - passing it along to the next generation. Why else? At least that is something. The 'reasonable" thing to do at this point would get out while the going is good....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1218289517498642432
Given this guy’s putrid investment record, I wouldn’t put too much stock in his predictions for the next 12 years. That is unless you are a Hussman contrarian.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1218165912228040704Life is Good wrote:
New records for all three major indices!!!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1218289517498642432
I don't think anyone is denying there are winners and there are losers.
You just happen to be someone who's been (and still is) a loser for the past 10 years.
Maserati wrote:Hey idiot, if you’re interested, IBKR are in the SEPA system, which makes many euro transactions much easier.
Mas,
My meagre holdings are all onshore. Only living expenses are handled in euros. BTW, I did the big reveal by gmail last week if you’re curious.
seattle prattle wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yeah Seattle I have been saying that for years. There are those who sell for cash to meet living expenses, but there are others who don’t need the cash in that manner—and that includes all the institutionals, sovereigns, insurers, hedgies, and well-heeled individuals.
Btw parking spots are doing well. I just received some eye-watering unsolicited offers on art that I swore I would never sell...and I didn’t sell. Where would the money go? To cash??
I used to find it difficult to understand people who were well-off but not very rich, who died and left behind things they could have sold to cover debts, etc. Now I get it. Unfortunately I stand to inherit nothing because my fam has no money or things, but if they did, I could see taking possession of it and just passing it on when I die.
Parking becomes an issue. With bonds etc you risk losing to inflation and its corollary currency devaluation, not to mention plain old default. Yes gov has acted as insurer for some things like mbs, so there is that—but it’s never as good as it seems on paper.
....
agip wrote:
yeah at some point you have to say 'I have enough money so I don't want to risk losing too much of it should there be an accident.'
I do have enough money.
I have around 70% of my portfolio in risky assets...I'll probably cut it down to 60%. At least I *should* cut it down to 60%.
If we lose 20% in a six weeks again, like in 2018, and I have not taken some profits, I will be very disappointed with myself.
Been thinking about this general point and at this time it's all about that thing Maserati is talking about - passing it along to the next generation. Why else? At least that is something. The 'reasonable" thing to do at this point would get out while the going is good....
well my only heir is going to be quite rich on his own so he won't need my money. And a big inheritance is a curse anyway. I dunno. It would be fun to give it away to worthy recipients. Fun not to have to worry about money anyway.
What I do know is that this sort of parabolic upward movement of stocks is not sustainable. I am not giving advice in any shape, and I'm usually wrong on trading timing, but I'm going to start fading this rally. In my memory these kinds of straight up euphoria means things will fall back a bit quite soon.
All that within the bounds of my decades-long buy and hold.
Igy are your clients bullish at all? I have been talking to one client after the next and everyone is convinced a recession and bear market are here. Like next week.
I suspect much of this is anti-Trump fervor...it's pretty clear that people rate an economy based on whether their party is in power or not...so that's probably clouding my clients' views.
But these end of year meetings are just one client after the next saying 'ok I made a lot of money but it's all going to go away soon.'
Just curious what you are hearing in Trump country.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1218518917892706306/photo/1
well yeah but this isn't an overly bullish forecast...it is reporting. The dow is actually at 30,000
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1218165912228040704Life is Good wrote:
New records for all three major indices!!!
Highest market valuation in history? Could he be any more disingenuous?
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Been thinking about this general point and at this time it's all about that thing Maserati is talking about - passing it along to the next generation. Why else? At least that is something. The 'reasonable" thing to do at this point would get out while the going is good....
well my only heir is going to be quite rich on his own so he won't need my money. And a big inheritance is a curse anyway. I dunno. It would be fun to give it away to worthy recipients. Fun not to have to worry about money anyway.
What I do know is that this sort of parabolic upward movement of stocks is not sustainable. I am not giving advice in any shape, and I'm usually wrong on trading timing, but I'm going to start fading this rally. In my memory these kinds of straight up euphoria means things will fall back a bit quite soon.
All that within the bounds of my decades-long buy and hold.
You know, that is a very thoughtful and balanced approach in my opinion, and thx for that.
I have to agree with you on the perception that this market can't be sustained. It is just occurring to me that maybe this is the late 2018 drop but in reverse. An over reaction, if you will.
So what's a bull to do? Esp. if further gains are just not needed for any real value reason. And by value i refer back to Masi's post a few days ago about what is the "worth" of the gains to an investor. I mean, what's the point then? Your fade the rally makes perfect sense to me.
But like Masi says, what, park cash in the market to just keep up with inflation and forget about the market...??? You know, like have a life besides, well, this?
Can't see that happening so I hate to say it, but there's always shorting the market. It's never worked for me before in the very few times i tried, but there is a certain appeal for the reasons mentioned.
agip,
My clients reflect my personality and cohort. Tend to want to hold on to what they have. Idaho is far more diverse than some realize. I have more than a handful that do not like Trump at all. A couple have short positions that are as much an anti-Trump bet as one based on valuations. When I explain to clients the process of QE, or the unsustainable tax policy they can see the vulnerability. Carry that conversation to politics, regardless of your side, most see how this country is divided while larger issues are kicked down the road.
There is so much growth in our Treasure Valley that you have a lot of hot money: real estate, services, restaurants, brew pubs, wineries, etc. My daughter was working on a case where a person starts a distillery equipment making business. Had no idea what they were doing. Sold a bunch of copper tubes, and vats that didn’t work. Also, contractors throwing up buildings that have varying degrees of shoddy work. There are a lot of attorneys making contract work for real estate or various business ventures. Ten years ago it was the bankruptcy attorneys.
In regards to our business, I have been through two severe bear markets. I remember the financial advisors with the ashen faces splashing water on their faces in the restroom. Going home with stomach aches. Not wanting to answer the phone. Or the biggest advisor at our branch in 1999 put clients on margin, bought a bunch of tech stocks. This guy has his name on the company ticker screen on Times Square. This advisor was so big and arrogant that most were afraid of him. The bust came, the lawsuits came, and the advisor was fired, and the branch manager reassigned.
In 2010 I had some bonus/differed income company stock by the time I was vested it expired worthless. The entity the firm bought during the financial crisis had FAs that came over with company stock that was worth ten of thousands, in 401k or deferred compensation now worth pennies. I was at a company conference in Denver in September of 2008. The Friday before Lehman went under. People were in shock, zombies walking. A month later I flew out to Los Angeles to help my mother move. The car rental company took me to another firm because their GM product had been confiscated by the lenders. We forget where we were a decade ago.
This bubble is more similar to the Tech Bubble than the Housing Bubble. Fast money, accounting gimmicks, and one class of society living the high life at the expense of others. Interestingly though some of my wealthiest clients see the inequality and the inevitability of a rebalance.
Igy