Down goes the Dow

Seattle,

Agreed. The point is we all make choices. If my decision was adverse to me, financially or otherwise, I would never expect anyone to bail me out. But that is me. I never look back, just forward.

Heading to the track in the morning.

Have a good weekend.

Igy

From student loans back to the markets:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1213099391797669889?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Has zero to do with people taking out debt that cannot be repaid. But keep up the wasted effort Detector Dude.

What it has to do with is you feeling no obligation regarding others education debt, yet you have no qualms about others paying for your education.

Oh look, we’ve found the whiny Socialist who feels entitled to other people’s money ( just for being alive and lazy).

Paraphrasing Margaret Thatcher “at some point you run out of other peoples money.”

Interesting how we have gotten to a point where the penalty for poor decisions is a taxpayer bailout. Hopefully in the next recession it is bad enough that this will be impossible.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I saw my children’s contemporaries go off to private or out of state colleges when they could have stayed home and attended Boise State University. I certainly do not feel sorry for the foolish choices they made.

And you drive a Porsche (owned by the bank) instead of a Honda.

Oh, the irony!

Irony Mann wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I saw my children’s contemporaries go off to private or out of state colleges when they could have stayed home and attended Boise State University. I certainly do not feel sorry for the foolish choices they made.

And you drive a Porsche (owned by the bank) instead of a Honda.

Oh, the irony!

In two years I will have a paid for Cayman, you’ll still have an Accord.

?

Idiot, it would be fun to pull up that post and see what I actually said.

Igy yes there has been a dip but it’s no big deal, there are lots of dog properties that have been the cause. Good ones are fine.

The tax situation has caused Chinese money migration to the BC interior, the island, and especially Toronto, now Montreal is firing up with other preferential treatments.

Van is still sky-high. 10% recession? Nobody cares, it is still absurd.

That’s what is happening to Us equities. No normal local in Van can afford to buy, and it has been like that for a while. It takes a whole normal family to buy a dump. Much of it is laundered money.

Just like US equities, only the magic of equities is that anybody can get in—and they do, via retirement accounts. This stabilizes flows and broadens the market. It is like being able to own a tranche of a Van house. It is a phenomenal opportunity.

Agip stop trying to re-shape the convo. The facts are inarguable. Try, for one:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

I will not detail how GDP, employment, inflation, etc calculations have changed to suit the convenience of the various administrations since, and including, Clinton (actually, a bit before). That is all public record.

How quickly we forget how oil rose. How quickly we forget how medical insurance skyrocketed, just recently. How quickly we forget about shrinkflation. How aggressive local authorities now are in re-assessing properties on which taxes are payable, after decades of sloth. How seemingly all of a sudden it costs 2 people $40 to eat out at some normal place, where just a few years ago it cost half that. How deductibles have risen. How the price of big things rises when rates are in the basement and people buy a payment.

There is no need for a proxy discussion. Williams is but one person who does this, there are others. And when people compare historic performances of markets and economies, a longitudinally consistent calculation is essential.

While some adjustment is appropriate, the official adjustments are simply laughable.

It’s simple reading.?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Irony Mann wrote:

And you drive a Porsche (owned by the bank) instead of a Honda.

Oh, the irony!

In two years I will have a paid for Cayman, you’ll still have an Accord.

?

Yes. And I paid cash for it.

I certainly do not feel sorry for the foolish choices you made.

Maserati wrote:

It’s simple reading.?

Simple reading for simple minds.

Irony Mann wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In two years I will have a paid for Cayman, you’ll still have an Accord.

?

Yes. And I paid cash for it.

I certainly do not feel sorry for the foolish choices you made.

You are such a virtuous socialist.

?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Irony Mann wrote:

Yes. And I paid cash for it.

I certainly do not feel sorry for the foolish choices you made.

You are such a virtuous socialist.

?

Apparently you do not know what being a socialist means.

Maserati wrote:

Agip stop trying to re-shape the convo. The facts are inarguable. Try, for one:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

I will not detail how GDP, employment, inflation, etc calculations have changed to suit the convenience of the various administrations since, and including, Clinton (actually, a bit before). That is all public record.

g.?

ok so you won't answer the question. Which is, for the record: Do you think Treasuries that pay 2% are losing c.6% in real value every year.

And if you do think that, why in the world are so many people taking that massive loss-creating trade?

I understand that you don't want to defend your untenable positions but I'll still call you out on them.

agip wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Agip stop trying to re-shape the convo. The facts are inarguable. Try, for one:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

I will not detail how GDP, employment, inflation, etc calculations have changed to suit the convenience of the various administrations since, and including, Clinton (actually, a bit before). That is all public record.

g.?

ok so you won't answer the question. Which is, for the record: Do you think Treasuries that pay 2% are losing c.6% in real value every year.

And if you do think that, why in the world are so many people taking that massive loss-creating trade?

I understand that you don't want to defend your untenable positions but I'll still call you out on them.

citing some dude's obscure website does not in any way, shape or form make a fact 'inarguable'

la gente ésta muy loca wrote:

Maserati wrote:

It’s simple reading.?

Simple reading for simple minds.

https://azizonomics.com/2013/06/01/the-trouble-with-shadowstats/

Please read carefully what I wrote. Also read your linked article carefully.

Irony Mann wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are such a virtuous socialist.

?

Apparently you do not know what being a socialist means.

Some are socialist in name only like Bernie Sanders. Of course you are of the virtuous type. Drive an EV, house solar panels, and make your carbon footprint flying to southeast Asia to learn about different cultures.

?

As I described on here years ago, we did the work—and found that Shadowstats was close enough that we would use it with our eyes open.

Shadowstats biggest weakness is on short time-scales, as it tracks the official trends. Our trends did not track perfectly over 2 weeks, but over 2 months they mostly did.

As I said, some adjustment is necessary.

Btw we are not the only ones, everyone worth their salt has done it.

Maserati wrote:Idiot, it would be fun to pull up that post and see what I actually said.

Mas,

It was a year or more back, and there’s no wat I can hunt to find the exchange, and I don’t remember the exact words. I was musing about investing in RE in Vancouver and you had indicated some knowledge of the market. I liked that the volatile market had softened and was thinking of buying the dip. Precisely what you said is not preserved in my memory but I do think you poo-pooed the idea. I gave it a few months and looked at it more carefully and decided it might be a decent investment so I pulled the trigger.

Maybe next November when we compare notes on my SP500 bet with Igy we can also check if I made a huge thundering error... :-)

I probably said something to the effect that it wasn’t for me, because I got better value in the Mediterranean.

Where did you buy, and what did you get?