I pity your foolishness.
I pity your foolishness.
Mrs. B wrote:
Oh, snap peas! wrote:
OK, but TNA is still off 8/31/2018 high of $97.12 or -25%; during that same time frame HSGFX is down -12%.
So your post is an example of the DGTD Contrarian Contrarian Indicator. Therefore, you lose.
Igy
You can’t be a contrarian indicator AFTER the fact. If you could, Igy would always be right but the opposite is true.
Good point.
J. Hardy wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Boeing CEO quits, trading halted.
No big deal. Gov will pick up the slack via space force funding, also spread around to key suppliers. Same as it ever was, will be interesting to see share price gyrations. I did not buy it.
Up 2.88% today.
Yup, I missed the current BA move. I was sure it would rise a bit, but this was sudden and I wasn’t ready, I thought I had more time. And I was even watching it! Merde. C’est la vie.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
You've been singing the same song for 3 1/2 years. Equity purchases made in 2015, 2016, 2017 have done quite well.
Only time will tell if you're wrong again about purchases made this year.
Only time will tell if your purchases made since 2011 will pay off. I say they won’t?.
I assume you were talking about people purchasing CD's since 2011 vs Stock.
One year ago today...
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The deluded thinking is no different than past bubble, but the reckless policies of Central Bankers will make this a bad one.
This “bad one” had the Dow rising 31% since the date of the quoted post.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through December 23, 2019. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 28.57% and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 28.45%. In third is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 21.76%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 11.05%.
Happy Holidays to all!
?? ?
Hey Igy,
Thanks again for the Sornette book recommendation. Are you familiar with his group’s Financial Crisis Observatory? It publishes a running summary, monthly, on the potential for a range of assets (single stocks) and asset classes to be in bubble territory. You might be interested to know that there current view is that US equities are not due for a bursting bubble at the moment. Of course they look at different metrics than Shiller and others. Interestingly there were moderate bubble signals in May and August ahead of a couple of this years dips.
The Idiot,
Interesting.
Earlier this week I recalled Jeremy Grantham in January 2018 calling for a blow-off top with numbers similar to yours. His firm had divergent views how this cycle would end, changing to a slow leak down, rather than a big push-up and a significant reversal.
Certainly your view and his earlier look to be the current track.
Igy
Many were predicting a “blow-off top”—a vivid image, but what does it mean? Why should the top blow off? And when? Why should it be a top? Too thin on details. I do think the planning time-frame should be compressed, mine is very short right now, not even as far as the end of 20Q1.
Amd when does a blow-off top become a bull market? If the top blows off as it did a year ago and it recovers just as well, who cares? It is a selling/buying opp for traders, but how many are traders?
More QE, more trade news, more gov buying in the coming weeks, rates steady at a very low level. The essential facts. Numbers might put a damper on things, but they are increasingly irrelevant compared to the only number that really counts: the index.
Or, since this is a sports site, “scoreboard “.
Hey, happy holidays to all. This time around has been super mellow, almost like it never happened. Strange.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The Idiot,
Interesting.
Earlier this week I recalled Jeremy Grantham in January 2018 calling for a blow-off top with numbers similar to yours. His firm had divergent views how this cycle would end, changing to a slow leak down, rather than a big push-up and a significant reversal.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03Certainly your view and his earlier look to be the current track.
Igy
To be clear, from the time the article was written - some 2 years ago - the S&P never fell more than 13% from the point he called a blow-off (downturn), and more significantly, is up 16% since the time he penned those words.
Sure glad i don't let these dire forecasts hinder my ability to invest in an ongoing fashion, for the long term, and without trying to time the market.
Maybe it is as simple as 'if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen'.
And how many months ago was it that we were being told that this upturn was "a bear market rally" and not to be trusted? How many months, and how far has the market climbed since then?
Sure, Down goes the Dow. But the Dow also Rises (literary reference intended).
ANd Happiest of Holidays to all, here, and your families. It's been quite a year, enjoyed spending time on this forum and enjoying the wonderful sport of running.
Regards.
Seattle prattle (on a different, read: faster, browser) wrote:
To be clear, from the time the article was written - some 2 years ago - the S&P never fell more than 13% from the point he called a blow-off (downturn), and more significantly, is up 16% since the time he penned those words.
Igy has never been one to let facts get in the way of his pessimistic narrative.
Happy Holidays to my DGTD friends.
H/T @DavidSchawel
Private Equity Bubble ?
YTD Total Return
Blackstone (BX) 97.6%
Ares (ARES) 104.9%
Carlyle (CG) 111.1% ( Jay Powell's former employer )
Apollo (APO) 107.2%
KKR (KKR) 52.1%
Comparison
VOO 31.8%
QQQ 39.7%
AAPL 86.5%
Who would have thought, given that there was a large tax break to households with a low marginal propensity to consume ( AKA the Donner Class ) !
Morning, gente. Why don’t you explicitly articulate your thinking? You think the tax breaks drove US consumer demand, which in turn drove those returns?
Maserati wrote:
Morning, gente. Why don’t you explicitly articulate your thinking? You think the tax breaks drove US consumer demand, which in turn drove those returns?
Crickets.
Right then why are all markets up globally? All because of the us consumer tax breaks?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/12/29/msft-correction/
just a bunch of technical charting BS. Can't you do better than that? Probably not. Which most of us would read as yet another buy signal. Thanks, Igy.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10-year-annualied-real-returns.png?itok=MJVm-wLM
The S & P began as a composite index with only 90 stocks up until 1957 when it became an index of 500 stocks. The 'composite" index did not begin until 1926.
