I will add, however, that I appreciate that the way you have been generally presenting this (overconfidently predicted) scenario is as a possibility to consider in one's own risk assessment, to help determine the optimum investment portfolio, and you have never (I think) counselled people to stay completely out of the market to avoid the eventual falling of the sky.
The idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:The only reason your model has worked since March is Federal Reserve policy. The markets are supported by artificial rates and QE. Take that away we drift towards 1,000. It will be an interesting year.
Igy
Two things Igy:
1. March 2018, not 2019, I could have been more clear. That's when I shared my naïve "prediction" trending to a most likely value of 3103 a couple / few days ago.
2. I personally try to avoid declarative statements involving certainty about market behaviour. I content it is impossible to be certain about any forward-looking market behaviour, in the absence of bounds and a statement of confidence. A statement implying, with certainty, that the markets will drift to 1000, is statistically guaranteed (in al practical terms) to be proven wrong, 9999 times out of 10000 (if playing out the next 2 years in 10000 different trials were conceptually possible). Or, in simper terms, I contend that you are (wildly) mistaken with no defensible basis in fact to support the conjecture. I might remind you that you have been making similar predictions for more than a couple of years now.
The Idiot,
I would contend that your beliefs, which mirrors investors as a whole, in fact supports and makes my assertion more likely. Market history supports my view more than yours. Of course there are proponents who truly believe the regime has changed and the past is no guide for the future. I guess that makes a market.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The idiot wrote:
Two things Igy:
1. March 2018, not 2019, I could have been more clear. That's when I shared my naïve "prediction" trending to a most likely value of 3103 a couple / few days ago.
2. I personally try to avoid declarative statements involving certainty about market behaviour. I content it is impossible to be certain about any forward-looking market behaviour, in the absence of bounds and a statement of confidence. A statement implying, with certainty, that the markets will drift to 1000, is statistically guaranteed (in al practical terms) to be proven wrong, 9999 times out of 10000 (if playing out the next 2 years in 10000 different trials were conceptually possible). Or, in simper terms, I contend that you are (wildly) mistaken with no defensible basis in fact to support the conjecture. I might remind you that you have been making similar predictions for more than a couple of years now.
The Idiot,
I would contend that your beliefs, which mirrors investors as a whole, in fact supports and makes my assertion more likely. Market history supports my view more than yours. Of course there are proponents who truly believe the regime has changed and the past is no guide for the future. I guess that makes a market.
Igy
Market history tells us to expect an annual return of 10% on average.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:The Idiot,
I would contend that your beliefs, which mirrors investors as a whole, in fact supports and makes my assertion more likely. Market history supports my view more than yours. Of course there are proponents who truly believe the regime has changed and the past is no guide for the future. I guess that makes a market.
Igy
Yep, that's exactly right, that' what makes a market. I'll look forward to checking in a year to see whether the SP500 is at 1100 or closer to 3700. Anywhere below 1500 and I will give you a virtual $1000 and all my dignity. If it's over 1500 I'll be calling you out for a virtual $100 and your dignity. Shake on it... :-)
Neither price nor cash flow represent “intrinsic value”.
Maserati wrote:
Neither price nor cash flow represent “intrinsic value”.
Perhaps according to your model of finance, but that has no basis in history. The current market structure has a foundation of sand, i.e. Fed QE, Fed easing, massive amounts of debt, stock buybacks, non-GAAP accounting, corporate tax cuts, and a President that measures his success via the market. Like overloading any system natural or otherwise, it will break, and the timing will be irrelevant.
Hutre wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The Idiot,
I would contend that your beliefs, which mirrors investors as a whole, in fact supports and makes my assertion more likely. Market history supports my view more than yours. Of course there are proponents who truly believe the regime has changed and the past is no guide for the future. I guess that makes a market.
Igy
Market history tells us to expect an annual return of 10% on average.
Please review the 20 year chart listed in the article below:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/11/07/the-latest-look-at-the-total-return-roller-coasterThe idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:The Idiot,
I would contend that your beliefs, which mirrors investors as a whole, in fact supports and makes my assertion more likely. Market history supports my view more than yours. Of course there are proponents who truly believe the regime has changed and the past is no guide for the future. I guess that makes a market.
Igy
Yep, that's exactly right, that' what makes a market. I'll look forward to checking in a year to see whether the SP500 is at 1100 or closer to 3700. Anywhere below 1500 and I will give you a virtual $1000 and all my dignity. If it's over 1500 I'll be calling you out for a virtual $100 and your dignity. Shake on it... :-)
You got it.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:You got it.
Cool, it's a bet! I'll come looking to collect this time next year. :-)
Finance is different from wealth.
Value is a human judgment. Food, water, air, shelter, etc all have intrinsic value to humans, but nothing else does.
Even price and cash flow are only relative, not intrinsic. If you are a monk, neither has value. If you have them but cannot transact them, neither has value. What value they do have is relative to the price, cash flow, and risk of alternative investments—it is not intrinsic.
With bonds taking a dump, RE stalling, commodities floundering, etc, everyone has piled into stocks, which has contributed to their price increase, along with cheap money, etc—but if rates ever increase, it will be seen just how relative that price and cash flow are.
I get what you are saying, but I think that one has to be careful to avoid rigid ways of thinking. Again, it depends on whether you think this time really is different in any meaningful way.
Talking about intrinsic value reminds me of discussions that took place when Nixon removed the gold standard. The very nature of money was revealed, and much was said about the “intrinsic value” of gold and silver. Neither has any “intrinsic value”, although they sure are handy, even preferred, for some applications—including, maybe, use as a representation of money.
That was what, 1971? Here we are, almost 50 years later with the whole world having relied on pure fiat, with value determined by a small committee of unelected, self-interested bankers—and many said that it would never work.
Now we see hypothecations like cryptos, and we hear the same arguments, plus some new ones—but old ideas about intrinsic value are already more than one generation out of date.
More than anything, the systems of society represent zeitgeist, and to use those systems to one’s advantage, one must conform—and the more one conforms, the more advantage one realizes (with a few exceptions, as always). This includes the financial and monetary systems.
Yes zeitgeist changes—but still, one is leaving much on the table if one is on the periphery, or on the outside looking in........in general.?
Imo imo imo imo
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hutre wrote:
Market history tells us to expect an annual return of 10% on average.
Please review the 20 year chart listed in the article below:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/11/07/the-latest-look-at-the-total-return-roller-coaster
Nice! Only one 20 year period with negative returns and many near or above the 10% overall average. The 30 year chart is even smoother, showing us the benefit of buy and hold. Thanks for the link.
Sure, here is another with my compliments:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1199709568965718018/photo/1
Happy Thanksgiving to all on the thread - it's been a fun many years.
I'll be at a Turkey Trot tomorrow and I hope you will too.
I'm feeling pretty good. Gobble gobble, DGTDers.
Ditto, happy Thanksgiving to everyone here, this strange little family?.
B&h up about 8.25% as of yesterday, and it’s going to be a big day today...and I have done nothing! Zero! Ridiculous!
I am tempted to sell, of course. Again, not many critical events left. I guess I will wait at least until the holiday euphoria has maxxed.
Just like last year, right??
Very tempted to sell.
Happy Thanksgiving to you too Maserati and the DGTD clan. Like agip I plan to run a 5k Turkey Trot in the morning. It is the largest race in Boise about with 4,000 participants. Saturday I ran a Turkey Trot Relay, so two TTS in less than a week. We had snow in the foothills this morning. Hoping for a dry course.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, here is another with my compliments:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1199709568965718018/photo/1
Thanks, but I don't put much emphasis on estimates. I'm a hard data kind of gal.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1199754715652902913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1199754715652902913&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmore-records-stocks-yield-curve-flattens-dollar-rises-7th-straight-day
You have to appreciate the irony of Hussman lecturing the Fed given that his signature fund is down 18.55% YTD and has lost nearly half of its value since inception. The Fed makes him look like a putz.
Also, Happy Thanksgiving!
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1199754715652902913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1199754715652902913&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmore-records-stocks-yield-curve-flattens-dollar-rises-7th-straight-dayYou have to appreciate the irony of Hussman lecturing the Fed given that his signature fund is down 18.55% YTD and has lost nearly half of its value since inception. The Fed makes him look like a putz.
Won’t make a difference since the Fed has created the greatest bubble ever.