Official LRC President Joseph R Biden Thread

Trollminator wrote:

https://twitter.com/harrylitman/status/1382439104621600771?s=21https://twitter.com/mepfuller/status/1382483237394612225?s=21https://twitter.com/removeron/status/1382511415546806274?s=21

Human traffickers are throwing babies over the border wall and there are thousands of kids in cages.

But hey...

LOOK!! Matt Gates!!!!🐿😂

I love the smell of desperation in the morning. Keep it up. ❤️❤️😂🤡👌👍

agip wrote:

Ok Igy let's think this through. . .

Maybe it's just me, but I thought his posting an "excess deaths" chart for April 2020 was peak ridiculous.

It's not controversial that the first month of the pandemic mostly hit the Northeast.

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

agip wrote:

Ok Igy let's think this through. . .

Maybe it's just me, but I thought his posting an "excess deaths" chart for April 2020 was peak ridiculous.

It's not controversial that the first month of the pandemic mostly hit the Northeast.

yeah the information I'd like to see is state by state per capita mortality since around November 1, 2020, which is when the big wave started.

At that point we had a full cycle of mass death in the spring, a lull in the summer of 2020 and then things started to get bad in November.

That would be the best tell - how areas were able to take the knowledge out there and turn it to good policy and save some lives.

I haven't seen that kind of data, unfortunately. Unfair to hold the spring of 2020 against the Northeast - no one knew what was going on. But from the fall of 2020 everyone did.

Democrats are not Christians.

Democrats are evil.

agip wrote:

Ok Igy let's think this through.

You want to count footsteps? We can do that.

Idaho is the 44th most densely populated state

NY is the 7th most densely populated state

Maybe...that tells us more about where people want to live than a trickle of transients?

But yes NY is indeed suffering a flow outwards. Will be interesting to see if that reverses and why. Over time it's been a constant back and forth as patterns of life change and levels of immigration change.

Agreed.

I have visited and worked in NYC half a dozen times, always enjoyed it.

I wish the migration to Idaho would stop.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

Ok Igy let's think this through.

You want to count footsteps? We can do that.

Idaho is the 44th most densely populated state

NY is the 7th most densely populated state

Maybe...that tells us more about where people want to live than a trickle of transients?

But yes NY is indeed suffering a flow outwards. Will be interesting to see if that reverses and why. Over time it's been a constant back and forth as patterns of life change and levels of immigration change.

Agreed.

I have visited and worked in NYC half a dozen times, always enjoyed it.

I wish the migration to Idaho would stop.

Why?

democrats are a disgrace wrote:

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1382650409752363008?s=20

Democrats are not Christians.

Democrats are evil.

Lol - isn't that the family values House minority leader who claimed the loser trump won and who doesn't speak up against criminals and pedos?

Trollminator wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Agreed.

I have visited and worked in NYC half a dozen times, always enjoyed it.

I wish the migration to Idaho would stop.

Why?

More people, Californiafication, crowding....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

Ok Igy let's think this through.

You want to count footsteps? We can do that.

Idaho is the 44th most densely populated state

NY is the 7th most densely populated state

Maybe...that tells us more about where people want to live than a trickle of transients?

But yes NY is indeed suffering a flow outwards. Will be interesting to see if that reverses and why. Over time it's been a constant back and forth as patterns of life change and levels of immigration change.

Agreed.

I have visited and worked in NYC half a dozen times, always enjoyed it.

I wish the migration to Idaho would stop.

One of my favorite vacations was at the Redfish Lake Lodge, near Stanley. What a place. Almost died on a long run when my hand-drawn trail map proved not to scale. But I made it back in only slightly more than one piece.

I see they're having an in-person race next month. Probably a very long drive though.

agip wrote:

yeah the information I'd like to see is state by state per capita mortality since around November 1, 2020, which is when the big wave started.

At that point we had a full cycle of mass death in the spring, a lull in the summer of 2020 and then things started to get bad in November.

That would be the best tell - how areas were able to take the knowledge out there and turn it to good policy and save some lives.

I haven't seen that kind of data, unfortunately. Unfair to hold the spring of 2020 against the Northeast - no one knew what was going on. But from the fall of 2020 everyone did.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Why?

More people, Californiafication, crowding....

OK boomer

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah the information I'd like to see is state by state per capita mortality since around November 1, 2020, which is when the big wave started.

At that point we had a full cycle of mass death in the spring, a lull in the summer of 2020 and then things started to get bad in November.

That would be the best tell - how areas were able to take the knowledge out there and turn it to good policy and save some lives.

I haven't seen that kind of data, unfortunately. Unfair to hold the spring of 2020 against the Northeast - no one knew what was going on. But from the fall of 2020 everyone did.

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/PercentExcessDeathsSinceNov2020ByState.png

whoah kool thanks

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Why?

More people, Californiafication, crowding....

And no upside as far as you are concerned?

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Agreed.

I have visited and worked in NYC half a dozen times, always enjoyed it.

I wish the migration to Idaho would stop.

One of my favorite vacations was at the Redfish Lake Lodge, near Stanley. What a place. Almost died on a long run when my hand-drawn trail map proved not to scale. But I made it back in only slightly more than one piece.

I see they're having an in-person race next month. Probably a very long drive though.

https://redfishlake.com/redfish-lake-lodge-marathon/

agip,

I have backpacked that area numerous times. One member of our running group participates in that race on a regular basis, and usually is the winner. There is also a routine where runners do a day run from Grand Jean to Redfish Lake (use two cars and camp at both ends), about 25 miles, but you start about 5,000 feet, climb to about 9,000 feet, back down, and take the ferry across the lake. Last year the trails were crowded with the Covid lockdowns, but usually not. By a crow’s fly the distance to Redfish Lake from my house is only about 60 miles, driving the circuitous route about double that. I think the Sawtooth Recreation Area, White Clouds and Frank Church Wilderness (Stanley Area) is one of the true treasures of this country. If you have time next time you are in the state I will show you around.

Igy

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/PercentExcessDeathsSinceNov2020ByState.png

Thanks for this!--but I wish I had a clearer idea of what the bars represent. Confidence intervals? Variance month-by-month, compared to normal? Comparison to previous individual years?

Nevertheless, the chart seems to indicate that deaths-above-normal in states like Texas and South Dakota and California are far above normal since 11/2020, and markedly greater than the situation in New York City and the rest of New York State; while North Carolina and Hawai'i have fared quite well in comparison.

Again, thanks for putting this together.

Aha - so it you who is inviting the libs to your state!

Some photos from that area:

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/idaho/grandjean-to-redfish-via-baron-lake/photos

formerly present wrote:

I wish I had a clearer idea of what the bars represent. Confidence intervals? Variance month-by-month, compared to normal? Comparison to previous individual years?

The source data from the CDC is an estimate of excess deaths. They give a "Lower Estimate" and a "Higher Estimate". The bars are bounded by those two numbers expressed as a percentage of average estimated deaths.

The "Higher Estimate" is "Total Deaths" minus "Expected Deaths".

The "Lower Estimate" is "Total Deaths" minus "Expected Deaths plus a confidence interval".

Actually my conversations with recent transplants were more along the lines of them leaving dysfunctional liberally administered west coast states. Most of my running friends are of a liberal bent, and they have been in Idaho for decades.