The Democrats' ONLY hope is that Trump is the nominee. This CAN happen, but if your party's hopes depend on one guy, they are NOT in overall good shape.
Getting 47% of the house vote nationwide isn't winning... That can get you across the finish line in already blue states like Nevada, but that's NOT going to cut it in 2024.
is this winning? Feels like it to me.
Brent Peabody 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @brent_peabody Democrats now control 24 governors mansions— more than they did after the 2018 Blue Wave
So they won 16 out of 36, and now they have 24 out of 50. Minority party.
The Democrats' ONLY hope is that Trump is the nominee. This CAN happen, but if your party's hopes depend on one guy, they are NOT in overall good shape.
Getting 47% of the house vote nationwide isn't winning... That can get you across the finish line in already blue states like Nevada, but that's NOT going to cut it in 2024.
Agip has correctly pointed out that the 47% number is pretty meaningless.
That said, I agree with your larger point that the Dem party is not in particularly good shape. The only reason that they may appear to be in good shape to some is that the GOP is a hot flaming mess so the Dems may look not too bad in comparison.
I agree it's largely meaningless. But they also have a majority of house seats. Hard to say a party is "damaged," as Flagpole does, when they're winning majorities.
Democrats will lose the White House in 2024 IF any one of these things is the case (and IF Trump is NOT the nominee. If Trump is the nominee, I don't believe there is a chance in hell that Democrats lose).
1) We are in a recession leading up to election day. Probably has to be a bad one to ensure the loss, but a recession of any kind makes it tough for Democrats to win.
2) We are in an unpopular war.
3) Biden has a major health emergency or dies just before the election.
Your House votes matters little because it is typical in a midterm for the party not in power to have more votes...Republicans should have had WAAAAAAY more than that in this election. In the most important swing states (WI, MI, PA, AZ), voters were resoundingly voting for Democrats...Democrat Governors in all four states, Democrat Senators in two of those states with MI not having an election and Ron Johnson barely pulling it out in WI when Democrats didn't financially support their candidate because they thought Johnson would easily win. Democrats did well with state-level races in those states also.
Don't forget also that Trump could run as an independent and gift wrap the race to Democrats. He won't do that FOR Democrats, but that will be the result. He'll do it to punish the GOP if they don't nominate him, and he'll do it to try to make more money from idiot Trumpers.
If Trump runs independent, he'll forget to file by the deadline to get on the ballot in 27 states, and then Melania will endorse Ron.
What do The Keys say anyway? Biden must around 2 out of 13
Well, I hope you are right. What frightens me is dark money and the power it wields. Behind most politicians are billionaires in the shadows. Hopefully these guys will stop trying to impose their will on the masses who clearly do not agree with them.
Not that you said otherwise, but Democrats get a lot more money from billionaires than Republicans. Their #2 donor just got revealed to be a fraud and his net worth vanished overnight, though...
The announcement is coming any moment. There is nothing liberals can do to stop it. Once Trump announces, all blankets are off. You can't call back The Dogs of War.
Agip has correctly pointed out that the 47% number is pretty meaningless.
That said, I agree with your larger point that the Dem party is not in particularly good shape. The only reason that they may appear to be in good shape to some is that the GOP is a hot flaming mess so the Dems may look not too bad in comparison.
I agree it's largely meaningless. But they also have a majority of house seats. Hard to say a party is "damaged," as Flagpole does, when they're winning majorities.
Also, the house popular vote shows, like something I linked to earlier, that the lack of house seats pickups is partly due to a combination of bad luck and redistricting... They made lots of gains in heavily R and heavily D districts, but too many close districts didn't swing their way. Point being the voters are there, but they are poorly allocated.
poor white republicans have been voting against their economic self interest for generations. They literally vote to take away their own healthcare and in exchange give tax cuts to rich people. these people are in no way voting on policy. They are voting on something else. What are they voting on? Some racial issues, some misinformation, some envy, some resentment, some 'don't tread on me' ideology, some ignorance. But they don't vote about policy. other than 3-4 wedge issues.
Poor people of every race have been voting against their economic self-interest for generations by electing Democrats. They literally vote to make everything more expensive by enacting environmental legislation that drives up inflation on everything from food to energy to prescription drugs. Likewise, they make housing less affordable by enacting growth restrictions and strict building codes. These people are in no way voting on policy. They are voting on something else. What are they voting on? Some racial issues, some misinformation, some envy, some resentment, some 'they have no choice but to riot' ideology, some ignorance.
Right now on predictit, there is an almost exact 1/3 chance that Trump will win the presidency or Biden will win the presidency or DeSantis will win the presidency.
But we're so far away that it's meaningless of course. Just interesting.
poor white republicans have been voting against their economic self interest for generations. They literally vote to take away their own healthcare and in exchange give tax cuts to rich people. these people are in no way voting on policy. They are voting on something else. What are they voting on? Some racial issues, some misinformation, some envy, some resentment, some 'don't tread on me' ideology, some ignorance. But they don't vote about policy. other than 3-4 wedge issues.
Poor people of every race have been voting against their economic self-interest for generations by electing Democrats. They literally vote to make everything more expensive by enacting environmental legislation that drives up inflation on everything from food to energy to prescription drugs. Likewise, they make housing less affordable by enacting growth restrictions and strict building codes. These people are in no way voting on policy. They are voting on something else. What are they voting on? Some racial issues, some misinformation, some envy, some resentment, some 'they have no choice but to riot' ideology, some ignorance.
Dems want a clean environment and housing that doesn't burn or fall down easily.
Rs want more racial domination by white people, lower taxes for all rich people and less health care for themselves.
NPR @NPR Official BREAKING: Donald Trump, who tried to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and inspired a deadly riot at the Capitol in a desperate attempt to keep himself in power, has filed to run for president again in 2024.
NPR @NPR Official BREAKING: Donald Trump, who tried to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and inspired a deadly riot at the Capitol in a desperate attempt to keep himself in power, has filed to run for president again in 2024.
Only because,
— He can dupe people into sending them their rent/mortgage/car payments. ... This will happen.
— He thinks it wins him immunity from all of his crimes. ... This will NOT happen.
Wapo. Also tough but fair. Describes Republicans pretty well, second graph.
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Donald Trump, the twice-impeached former president who refused to concede defeat and inspired a failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election culminating in a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol, officially declared on Tuesday night that he is running to retake the White House in 2024.
...
And he has profoundly altered the tenor of American public life — shattering long-held standards of decorum and civility with often shocking attacks on political rivals, judges and reporters. He has frequently made racist and antisemitic remarks, mocked people with disabilities and denigrated developing countries, bragged about sexual assault and paid hush money to a porn star, praised dictators, declined to disavow extremists, inspired his supporters to resort to violence and defended white supremacists and Jan. 6 rioters.
Wapo. Also tough but fair. Describes Republicans pretty well, second graph.
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Donald Trump, the twice-impeached former president who refused to concede defeat and inspired a failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election culminating in a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol, officially declared on Tuesday night that he is running to retake the White House in 2024.
His first declaration of a stolen election will come if he loses the primary to DeSatan. Fun times ahead.
The Democrats' ONLY hope is that Trump is the nominee. This CAN happen, but if your party's hopes depend on one guy, they are NOT in overall good shape.
Getting 47% of the house vote nationwide isn't winning... That can get you across the finish line in already blue states like Nevada, but that's NOT going to cut it in 2024.
Agip has correctly pointed out that the 47% number is pretty meaningless.
That said, I agree with your larger point that the Dem party is not in particularly good shape. The only reason that they may appear to be in good shape to some is that the GOP is a hot flaming mess so the Dems may look not too bad in comparison.
There ARE only two major parties, so if one is a hot flaming mess and one of them is not, then the one that is not is in good shape. There is only the comparison between the two to determine this.
Things can change on a dime in politics, but the mess the GOP is in right now is worse than any in my lifetime, and that includes after Watergate. Had Republicans taken back The Senate, had they added a LOT more seats in the House and had more of Trump's picks won their elections (Kari Lake losing is REALLY bad for Trump), things would be different, but none of that happened. Republicans got sh!tcanned.
We can only look at milestones to see where things are, and in a midterm that SHOULD have been a Red Wave (historically speaking, considering the high inflation, considering Democrats have an OLD and not all that popular President) but wasn't, things are not good for the GOP.
Trump announced his candidacy tonight, and until there is some more movement from others, he is STILL the leading candidate for the Republican Party. Let's examine that:
1) He lost the popular vote in both Presidential elections.
2) Even at his most popular, he has never had a GOOD popularity rating.
3) He was impeached twice, setting a record.
4) He has now singlehandedly caused three bad national elections in a row for Republicans.
5) He has so many investigations into him right now that I'm not sure I could remember them all. And NOW, we hear that he instructed the IRS to investigate his political foes. I mean, Holy Sh!t, where does it end with this guy? (That's illegal in case any of you moron Trumpers didn't know that...and also, NO, Obama didn't do the same thing; an investigation into the matter determined that both conservative and liberal keywords were used when searching for organizations to investigate).
6) No candidate for President has ever had so much baggage.
No, he can't win. Yes, he's the easiest likely candidate for Democrats to beat. No, I would rather not see him go through an entire cycle of campaigning, because I've seen enough of him and his stupid followers to last a lifetime. Many polls already show that DeSantis is favored over Trump as the nominee in 2024. Trump CAN hold the GOP hostage though by threatening to run as an independent. Will be interesting. While he's a POS as are his followers, his declaring that he is a candidate does not bother me in the least.
And, while I have said this in some form many times, most Democrats (myself included) are not Team Biden. We are Team Anti-Trump. I can sleep very well with a Republican President as long as he or she (or they) isn't anti-American and anti-rule of law like the serial lying criminal Trump is. Chris Sununu would be fine. John Kasich would be fine. Larry Hogan would be a great President (even though I would disagree with him on some things).
Anyway, a bit more rambling than normal, but that's the way it is today.
Trump CAN hold the GOP hostage though by threatening to run as an independent. Will be interesting.
Nope, I looked this up... Almost every state has a law that prevents candidates from going independent after they've lost a primary. So, your fantasy of him spoiling the race and giving Biden a landslide isn't happening.
Trump CAN hold the GOP hostage though by threatening to run as an independent. Will be interesting.
Nope, I looked this up... Almost every state has a law that prevents candidates from going independent after they've lost a primary. So, your fantasy of him spoiling the race and giving Biden a landslide isn't happening.
I didn't say he would do it AFTER losing the primary. He can see the writing on the wall (or at least his handlers can) well before any vote is cast. Pretty easy for him to say to the RNC, "support me, or I will run as an independent."
In neither case though does he win the Presidency again.
If I had to guess at this point though (I am NOT making a declaration), it seems to me that Trump is declaring only because he is hopeful that being a candidate will insulate him from being prosecuted. When he IS indicted, he WILL say, "It's a political witch hunt." He though will NOT be protected by being a declared candidate.
The person who has been the most right about Trump all along has been Michael Cohen. HE says that Trump will not end up actually running...saying that when it gets time for voting, he will bow out. In it just long enough to try to grift more moron Trumpers and that his ego can't handle another loss. I have no reason to disbelieve Cohen on this, and his track record is pretty good, so I'm going to lean toward going with Cohen on this one.
Also, if the RNC makes it clear to Trump that they don't want him as its candidate, he could be so vindictive (I mean, he IS vindictive) that he might run as an Independent. I'm SURE he can still rake in some money from moron Trumpers by doing that. He just could not care less about The Republican Party. He ONLY cares about what is best for him. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Wapo. Also tough but fair. Describes Republicans pretty well, second graph.
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Donald Trump, the twice-impeached former president who refused to concede defeat and inspired a failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election culminating in a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol, officially declared on Tuesday night that he is running to retake the White House in 2024.
...
And he has profoundly altered the tenor of American public life — shattering long-held standards of decorum and civility with often shocking attacks on political rivals, judges and reporters. He has frequently made racist and antisemitic remarks, mocked people with disabilities and denigrated developing countries, bragged about sexual assault and paid hush money to a porn star, praised dictators, declined to disavow extremists, inspired his supporters to resort to violence and defended white supremacists and Jan. 6 rioters.
It's hard to fit all his "accomplishments" eloquently into a single line.