Yep, that looks about right to me (think I would have had them 1-2 points higher, but we're in the same ballpark), and I agree State and NXR are going to be very interesting and much more telling with regards to potential at NXN.
Yep, that looks about right to me (think I would have had them 1-2 points higher, but we're in the same ballpark), and I agree State and NXR are going to be very interesting and much more telling with regards to potential at NXN.
BMeylan wrote:
Oh? ... I just looked at the North Central Girls and Kamiakin Boys District Meet results and rated the the races ... Wish I had more data for the evaluation, but an elite performance by several teams ... Did not realize the North Central Girls were at that level right now (ratings of 144, 139, 135, 130, 113, 102) ... Looking forward to WA States and NXR Northwest (but those were going to be the main results I wanted to see for any NXN predictions).
wow, my WAG was not too bad. I eyeballed 145/140/135/132/110/100
perhaps just lucky or a broken watch!
Does not materially change the answer
Looking at Bill Meylans ranking of NY State Class A Girls, and assuming all of the teams make it to the state meet (which they won't of course) the competition between Saratoga Springs and FM would not be close, Saratoga winning handily. Taking out the teams who don't qualify will no doubt narrow the gap as there are 60 or so places between the 2 teams 5th runners. But still, this gives you an idea of how strong this Saratoga team might be.
fastTuohy wrote:
Looking at Bill Meylans ranking of NY State Class A Girls, and assuming all of the teams make it to the state meet (which they won't of course) the competition between Saratoga Springs and FM would not be close, Saratoga winning handily. Taking out the teams who don't qualify will no doubt narrow the gap as there are 60 or so places between the 2 teams 5th runners. But still, this gives you an idea of how strong this Saratoga team might be.
http://www.tullyrunners.com/RankStateGirls.htm#Class_A
The Class A race will only have 8 teams. This will definitely help FM. I could envision FM over Toga at NYSPHAA but a reversal at NXR (or Feds but FM usually skips).
Section2XC wrote:
The Class A race will only have 8 teams. This will definitely help FM. I could envision FM over Toga at NYSPHAA but a reversal at NXR (or Feds but FM usually skips).
Certainly the smaller the field the better for FM, but I already see several class A runners from the completed sections that might displace FM's #5 further back. NYSPHAA could be pretty close, but in a big field that gap is big.
3 of the Saratoga girls are very close to 3 of the FM girls. Who beats who in will be big.
fastTuohy wrote:
Section2XC wrote:
The Class A race will only have 8 teams. This will definitely help FM. I could envision FM over Toga at NYSPHAA but a reversal at NXR (or Feds but FM usually skips).
Certainly the smaller the field the better for FM, but I already see several class A runners from the completed sections that might displace FM's #5 further back. NYSPHAA could be pretty close, but in a big field that gap is big.
3 of the Saratoga girls are very close to 3 of the FM girls. Who beats who in will be big.
If you believe Meylan's ratings (and I generally do), FM will really have to beat up Saratoga's 1-4 to take them at the NYSPHSAA. Behind Tuohy's expected 1st in the team race, the next 8 places rate to be a dual-meet between FM's and Saratoga's 1-4. Morales from NR might be the only team runner to break that up. With Saratoga looking at an expected 10-place advantage (over a full minute) at the #5, things would have to break really well for FM up front for them to come out on top. Like them going 2-4-5-6 to Saratoga's 3-7-8-9, with a big race from their #5.
The NY boys teams are interesting this year, in that 4 teams have real shots at qualifying - though Burnt Hills' Metacarpa seems to have done his (sadly) annual disappearing act, which probably torpedoes their chances. With this being the weakest year for NY boys in recent memory - there just aren't many guys running in the 180s - FM's advantage 1-3 over Shen, Guilderland, and BH (with Metacarpa) is somewhat muted. With FM's 4-5 guys consistantly in the low 160s, the shape of the field at NXN-NY could make it a very close race.
Based on the ratings wrote:
The Class A race will only have 8 teams. This will definitely help FM. I could envision FM over Toga at NYSPHAA but a reversal at NXR (or Feds but FM usually skips).
Certainly the smaller the field the better for FM, but I already see several class A runners from the completed sections that might displace FM's #5 further back. NYSPHAA could be pretty close, but in a big field that gap is big.
3 of the Saratoga girls are very close to 3 of the FM girls. Who beats who in will be big.[/quote]
If you believe Meylan's ratings (and I generally do), FM will really have to beat up Saratoga's 1-4 to take them at the NYSPHSAA. Behind Tuohy's expected 1st in the team race, the next 8 places rate to be a dual-meet between FM's and Saratoga's 1-4. Morales from NR might be the only team runner to break that up. With Saratoga looking at an expected 10-place advantage (over a full minute) at the #5, things would have to break really well for FM up front for them to come out on top. Like them going 2-4-5-6 to Saratoga's 3-7-8-9, with a big race from their #5.
The NY boys teams are interesting this year, in that 4 teams have real shots at qualifying - though Burnt Hills' Metacarpa seems to have done his (sadly) annual disappearing act, which probably torpedoes their chances. With this being the weakest year for NY boys in recent memory - there just aren't many guys running in the 180s - FM's advantage 1-3 over Shen, Guilderland, and BH (with Metacarpa) is somewhat muted. With FM's 4-5 guys consistantly in the low 160s, the shape of the field at NXN-NY could make it a very close race.[/quote]
The real point of my post on NY was that if you believe FM has a good team, then Saratoga is also as good, or perhaps in a big field, better.
Milesplit is now putting out their National Merge of the top 22 teams, but of course not necessarily the 22 teams most likely to compete at NXN.
https://ny.milesplit.com/articles/270859-last-minute-changes-in-final-speed-rating-national-mergeIn IL today, state meet, St. Charles East boys win 62 over Wheaton Warrenville South 66, with York third way back at over 153.
The Northwest Regional girls race is going to be INSANE next weekend.
North Central WA averaged 17:55.3 as they steamrolled the Washington 3A field. Their times: 17:26.9, 17:41.8, 17:50.9, 18:11.9, and 18:24.9.
Summit OR wasn't to be outdone, as they averaged 17:34.4 at the Oregon 6A race, but their winning margin was smaller because potential At-Large teams Jesuit and Lincoln were also in the field. Summit's times were 16:51.8, 17:10.3, 17:52.3, 17:58.6, and 17:58.8.
Jesuit OR (18:01.6) and Lincoln OR (18:03.6) weren't far behind. Jesuit's times were 17:15.2, 17:41.1, 18:13.1, 18:25.7 and 18:32.7. Lincoln's times were 17:01.0, 17:56.2, 18:07.8, 18:23.1 and 18:50.0.
Add to that the Idaho teams in Boise (18:34.07 = 18:26.51, 18:28.30, 18:32.45, 18:33.99, 18:49.08) and Timberline-Boise (18:46.53 = 18:34.32, 18:42.96, 18:49.64, 18:50.25, 18:55.48) ... as well as Montana's Bozeman (18:44.91 = 18:04.29, 18:45.75, 18:53.48, 18:59.22, 19:01.80) at a slightly higher altitude, and that's 7 teams with some pretty impressive state meet performances.
It'll be interesting to see just how many of those teams run similar (or even better) performances at NXR. Could be 1-2 At-Large bids out of the region this year.
Franklin boys beat Jesuit at state, and Franklin only had one senior. Things are looking good for Franklin next year too
NXN regionals are underway.
Heartland is today. Live results here
First qualifiers for NXN 2019:
HL Girls Individuals:
17:19.1 Meghan Ford (Jamestown ND)
17:27.4 Marie Hostetler (Mid-Prairie Community IA)
17:27.7 Analee Weaver (Stillwater MN)
17:29.6 Anna Fenske (Farmington MN)
17:30.7 Kora Malecek (Onalaska WI)
Just missing the cut:
17:40.2 Ali Weimer (St. Michael-Albertville MN)
17:40.3 Liesl Paulsen (Eden Prairie MN)
HL Girls Teams:
97 Edina MN
121 Muskego WI
Potential At-Large Teams:
145 Wayzata MN
191 Sioux Falls Lincoln SD
HL Boys Individuals:
15:17.8 Nicholas Scheller (Chanhassen MN)
15:19.1 Oliver Paleen (St. Paul Highland Park MN)
15:19.5 Ryan Kinnane (Andover KS)
15:19.5 Max Murphy (Pleasant Valley IA)
15:19.7 Shuayb Hussein (Wazata MN)
Just missing the cut:
15:19.9 AJ Green (Eastview MN)
15:22.2 Andrew Lauer (Sioux Falls Lincoln SD)
15:22.9 Brady Yoder (Dickinson ND)
HL Boys Team:
125 Mounds View MN
177 Stevens Point WI
Potential At-Large Teams:
188 Eden Prairie MN
227 Middleton WI
NYSPHSAA Championship duel between FM and Saratoga Springs is going to be a little brisk Saturday in Plattsburgh. Low 8, High 23 (F) is the forecast right now.
fastTuohy wrote:
NYSPHSAA Championship duel between FM and Saratoga Springs is going to be a little brisk Saturday in Plattsburgh. Low 8, High 23 (F) is the forecast right now.
Outlook worsens, 60% chance of snow on Friday, Saturday Low/High 4/22 F.
This was supposed to be a fast course. Perhaps not this Saturday.
Boys:
1. St Charles East
2. Wheaton Warrenville South
Girls:
1. Beavercreek
2. Naperville North
Yorkville 3rd on girls side, if they run well a decent chance for at large bid
Boys:
1. Kamiakin
2. Camas
Girls:
1. Summit
2. North Central
York boys will get 3rd. They should get an at large if they do. They beat Wheaton Warrenville South earlier this season and The Midwest region is very strong this year.
The Washington course is a at least 20-30 seconds slower than the Oregon course so I would say North Central and Summit are close. North Central could win it if Summit doesnt bring their A-game
Can Michigan teams still not officially compete?
I see only one Michigan team signed up, and it says they can't be scored as a team on the website... I thought that issue got solved a few years ago?