Katelyn Tuohy 5000m Prediction - What will her 5000 pb at the end of the season?

Bush just had a bad day. She is cable of running 4:10 if fresh and rested. I think you will see Tuohy, Starliper, Moreno, Bush in the 4x1500. This is what I have thought all along. Starliper was very sick at Raleigh Relays and was supposed to run the 1500 originally at VA but was not able to workout for a while after RR due to illness (if you noticed her two roommates were not even racing at VA because they all got sick…Holt, Latour).

I believe that is why Starliper is running the 1500 Thursday at Penn Relays. If she runs 4:15 or better you will see her in the 4x1500. NC State will win if every goes as I’m predicting (and hoping)! I said it a couple of weeks ago that I think they have a chance to get the American record. It may not happen but it is possible for Tuohy and Bush to be around 4:10 and Moreno and Starliper to be around 4:15. That would do it ( I know I make that sound so easy….. lol)

Starliper is fine…..she was pacing Steelman the first 6-7 laps, and pulled off the track and immediately started cheering for Hannah and was talking with coach Henes. Starliper took her through 3200 around 10:01

It was obvious being there and watching because Starliper was constantly looking at her watch and looking over her shoulder to see if it was Hannah behind her. There is no way if she was racing her 1st 5k on the track she would be ahead of Steelman. I think we will see where Starliper really is coming off 2 years of injury and recent illness at Penn Relays.

Not this year. She gave all she had to run the 15:14. From here on out she will not race for time, but to win an NCAA title. If I was the coach, there is no way I run her in The 1500 at regionals. I would do as it appears she is doing with Tuohy…, which is what she did with her daughter. Go win win the NCAA 5000 by building speed racing several 1500 after getting the qualifying time. If you look at what Henes did last season it looks like the same play book to me and it worked!

Yep. I was wondering how they wanted approach this race, thinking they may just get a qualifying time. But then I remembered Henes's race last year. What it tells me is that she is already capable of running under 15:10 in her sophomore year. She ran the final 3200m of this race from the front. If they were able to execute the original plan of having Bush pace her to the 3000m mark she might have gotten 15:10 in this race.

As long as everyone is healthy I think the 5000 finals will come down to her and Wayment again, with Wayment possibly getting saved again by the altitude training advantage that was really the only thing that separated them in the indoor final. Nichols may be in the mix also, doing what Wasserman did last year. Roe will the dark horse. Chelanget is running the 10000 and that should her out of the mix.

You don't think wayment will run the steeplechase?

She just might. That would take her out of contention for the 5000.

Btw Hutchins ran at the BYU Invite today. DNF in the 5000.

thanks, many BYU DNFs, and she DNFd the mile as well it appears. Just getting a taste of college races without having to deal with results?

I guess. To be honest I have no clue what the plan is or what the underlying situation is. I heard there was an injury issue, but that could be pure rumor.

I believe this wasn't katelyn tuohy's best at her current fitness, she did not grit as much as in the indoor champs in the final stretch of her 15:14.. and also if tuohy had better pacing help and pro runners to pull her ... breaking 15:10 is not even up for discussion and hell 15:05 was surely in her radar

tuohy did an impeccable job negative splitting since 3000m on her own .. now imagine if she had karissa pacing and in front for her to chase

tuohy not getting 15:10 indeed was because of sam bush not lining up to help with the pacing, it is what it is, you could hate me for saying it, but yep she was the reason, they put nevada mareno to do it but shes not as strong as sam bush

tuohy would have qualified for world championships trials if sam bush helped tuohy

if tuohy was in her shoes, tuohy would move on from her bad race and help her teammate without even thinking twice

you look at the splits from 1800m to 3000m, if sam bush was pacing, tuohy could easily shave off 4 seconds and thats gives her 15:10 or sub 15:10 time ... early on i kept saying she was on a 15:10 pace but its hard to get it on her own .. i know tuohy was not really contented, she never is, never will ... so i know shes on the hunt for that 15:10

Wayment surely runs steeple, Chelengat and Gregory might go for the 10,000m ... the 5000m will be a battle of Tuohy, Nichols and Roe

The women will steer clear of Roe in the 5k after seeing her dominance.

Taylor Roe dominance?

You mean her less than half of a second win? Over tuohy who was buried at the 10th spot when she surged and got 60m away from the pack tuohy was in? and yet Roe barely won it? 0.25seconds is what u call dominance?

Running 15:21 is what u call dominance and not a solo 15:14?

You live in Tuohy's threads always posting about how she's no better than Taylor Roe and Natalie Cook yet Tuohy easily beats their PRs..you don't make threads about ur fave runner becoz u know nobody would even care discuss..

dominance is being a national team xc champion, a u20 record holder, scoring highest individual score at ncaa championships and winning two close back to back races as a freshman at an indoor championships, dominance is running a top 8 all-time 15:14 alone ..losing pacing help and already leading the race from 1800m to 5000m. And negative splitting.

First things first, I support Tuohy. I think she is doing great, and will do better.

But, let's not mischaracterize things. Nichols ran basically the same time as Tuohy with a much faster last lap. Yes, she was trying to catch and pass people, but she is very good.

I keep reading how Tuohy had a negative split on this 5000. Looking at her splits it seems like her first 3K was 9:09.5 and her last 3K was 9:09.1. Her first 2K was 6:05 and her last 2K was 6:05. Her last lap was 71.3 which was her fastest lap of the race. But this is hardly a huge negative split. She did not look "all out" in the short video of the end of the race, but how much more she had is an unknown.

Now let's look at Roe in her 15:21. Her first 3K was 9:18 (15:30 pace) and her last 2K was 6:03 (15:08 pace). Her first 2K looked to be 6:15 or 6:16 (15:40 pace - she was behind the lead pack by 3-4 seconds). She accelerated a lot. To me, she can go faster than 15:21.

If these 3, and Chelangat are on and the pace is fast this could be a real good race. If Wayment decides not to do the steeplechase, that just adds more fuel to the fire. The question is, who would drive the pace?

I thought KT's race was the most impressive. To run 15:14 running the final 3200m from the front and having no one to draft off, and still having her fastest split in the final 400 indicates that she can run sub-15:10. You cannot compare it to the Mt. Sacs race where you had a bunch of faster pros pulling the race along all the way to the wire. And it is a hell of a lot easier to kick when you a drafting most of a race. KT would have gone under 15:10 in that race. Crazy thing is she might have come close here if she had been paced for 3000m as planned. Just the basic physics of drafting.

Obviously it would be nice to see the race (high school races like the Loukes games are videoed but a major college meet is not?), but the splits and the very limited video we have tell me this was a well planned, controlled effort. Again it mirrors the Henes race from last year perfectly and her coaches clearly mapped it out. Henes closed running 1:13 at the West Coast Relays and 1:04 in the NCAA finals. Now just imagine if KT starts altitude training. The NCAA record is realistic.

As to the finals, I agree it will be very competitive. If Wayment skips the steeple chase she is the slight favorite. And Roe and Nichols will also be in the mix. Nichols is playing the Wasserman role this year. But all that said we have no idea who will be running well in June.

Katelyn Tuohy wins Most Valuable Performer for Indoor Track and I believe Kelsey Chmiel also won MVP for Cross Country!!

the young ones really took over this team after the departure of elly henes!

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