I wouldn't be so sure that Kelly won as we STILL have not received much for election day ballot drops which heavily favor both Lake & Masters. I call this a "blue mirage" as these leads that Hobbs & Kelly currently have are going to disappear with more drops.
I wouldn't be so sure that Kelly won as we STILL have not received much for election day ballot drops which heavily favor both Lake & Masters. I call this a "blue mirage" as these leads that Hobbs & Kelly currently have are going to disappear with more drops.
Republicans are up 5.6 million. California might close the gap by 800k, maybe over a million with WA and OR (when will they be done counting again, Christmas?). Republicans should still win the popular vote by ~4.5%, and if the median district is R+0.5 that's an D+4 map bias.
R+4.5 would be a 7.1pp swing since the house vote in 2020. A big moral victory at least.
are you looking at the Cook Report vote tracker?
take a look at the dakotas. That's 400,000 votes for the R and absolutely zero for the D. Wyoming and Montana are similar.
I just don't think this stat means much when two small states can move the tracker 400,000 votes because no D is on the ballot, apparently. I'd not pay much attention to it.
I understand this. There are many house districts in the SF Bay area with only a Democrat, too. My own ballot often doesn't have a Republican on many races although they mostly did this year. It happens but it cancels out.
I'm just computing map bias the same way the 538/NYT articles you've posted. If the house vote is invalid this year then it's invalid every other year, too.
take a look at the dakotas. That's 400,000 votes for the R and absolutely zero for the D. Wyoming and Montana are similar.
I just don't think this stat means much when two small states can move the tracker 400,000 votes because no D is on the ballot, apparently. I'd not pay much attention to it.
I understand this. There are many house districts in the SF Bay area with only a Democrat, too. My own ballot often doesn't have a Republican on many races although they mostly did this year. It happens but it cancels out.
I'm just computing map bias the same way the 538/NYT articles you've posted. If the house vote is invalid this year then it's invalid every other year, too.
well it's certainly not a consistent number, by your own points. Hard to do much comparing year to year when it has all the variables you point out.
The popular vote is how these articles determine gerrymandering bias. Like I said earlier, it's probably going to show a D-bias this year, possibly by multiple percentage points.
I think this is reasonable. Lots of people thought that all those Democratic votes in 2018 were indicative of something or other; let's have some consistency!
take a look at the dakotas. That's 400,000 votes for the R and absolutely zero for the D. Wyoming and Montana are similar.
I just don't think this stat means much when two small states can move the tracker 400,000 votes because no D is on the ballot, apparently. I'd not pay much attention to it.
I understand this. There are many house districts in the SF Bay area with only a Democrat, too. My own ballot often doesn't have a Republican on many races although they mostly did this year. It happens but it cancels out.
I'm just computing map bias the same way the 538/NYT articles you've posted. If the house vote is invalid this year then it's invalid every other year, too.
Because of Twitter's impersonation of the Titanic, Trump's media stock DWAC is up 50% in a week or so! What a story if Twitter goes out of business and Trump creates a better alternative and banks coin!
Still down 57% over a year but the comeback has begun!
I wouldn't be so sure that Kelly won as we STILL have not received much for election day ballot drops which heavily favor both Lake & Masters. I call this a "blue mirage" as these leads that Hobbs & Kelly currently have are going to disappear with more drops.
This linked article says:
"Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said more than 50,000 mail-in ballots had yet to be counted with 15,000 votes expected to be tabulated Friday."
and
"Vote totals released from Clark County on Thursday evening showed the mail-in results leaning toward Cortez Masto by nearly a 2-1 margin. Masto gained 7,480 votes in Clark County on Thursday, compared to Laxalt’s 4,195."
So there are legs to this allegedical drop-box thingy, which I now understand to be the same as mail-in. (Is that correct?). If there are 50,000 mail-in/drop-boxers to be counted and Maestro gets 66.6% (2 to 1), then Maestro nets approximately 16,650 votes (50,000 X .666 - 50,000 X .333). That's more than enough to cover the current Laxer surplus bang of 9,000.
What this shows is that we need election-deniers in places in Nevada to abrogate this goddam drop boxing stuff. Get this stuff off the books by 2024. Unless we can train up a critical mass of Republicans how to drop box by then. But I don't know how on god's green earth that could be done in 2 years.
"Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said more than 50,000 mail-in ballots had yet to be counted with 15,000 votes expected to be tabulated Friday."
and
"Vote totals released from Clark County on Thursday evening showed the mail-in results leaning toward Cortez Masto by nearly a 2-1 margin. Masto gained 7,480 votes in Clark County on Thursday, compared to Laxalt’s 4,195."
So there are legs to this allegedical drop-box thingy, which I now understand to be the same as mail-in. (Is that correct?). If there are 50,000 mail-in/drop-boxers to be counted and Maestro gets 66.6% (2 to 1), then Maestro nets approximately 16,650 votes (50,000 X .666 - 50,000 X .333). That's more than enough to cover the current Laxer surplus bang of 9,000.
What this shows is that we need election-deniers in places in Nevada to abrogate this goddam drop boxing stuff. Get this stuff off the books by 2024. Unless we can train up a critical mass of Republicans how to drop box by then. But I don't know how on god's green earth that could be done in 2 years.
Seems like the Dems have cornered the market on the nursing homes. For Nevada I think we need to send jamin to all of the brothels in Reno and counties surrounding Las Vegas and get ladies of the night to fill in ballots for Republican candidates. They'll do anything for a buck.
Yesterday Trump tweeted that he used the DOJ and FBI to tamper with the 2018 election to get DeSantis and Scott elected.
Trump has done so much lying and shady crap that nobody even believes him when he confesses to crap anymore.
this man was President of the USA and a good portion of evangelicals still believe he was sent by God.
Dude -trump stuff belongs in the TRUMP THREAD!!!! Do you not understand this?!?
The Laxer lead went down from 8,998 to 798. That appears to be all due to the increase in percentage in Clark county from 51.5% to 52% for Maestro.
Clark is estimated 95% in, which would leave around 33,500 votes uncounted. If Maesto remained at 52% (which could even increase due to drop-boxing) and Lax remans at 45.1%, then Maestro would make up 2,312 votes, leaving a win of 1,514 (2,312-798).
Drop-boxing is an effective 4th quarter technique it seems.
Time for the fat lady to sing - the likelihood of the Dem winning in nevada senate is now 96%.
which means the senate is done. Schumer keeps the gavel. As long as Joe Manchin stays on team blue.
Some irregularities up in Buzzard county, but I'm inclined to agree with you on the Nevada senate race. We can stick a spoon in this one. Cortez Maestro will win. Laxalt couldn't deliver the goods when his country needed him the most.
Made the following (small) bets yesterday when they dipped for the heck of it:
NV senate D @ 60c
AZ senate D @ 75c
Overall house R @ 79c
Riskier bets today:
AZ governor R @ 43c (my understanding is it's mostly day-of and non-mail drop box remaining)
GA senate R @ 28c (thinking Democrat enthusiasm is overestimated right now)
Good stuff. You won NV and AZ senator but lost AZ guvnor. New data dump tonight has the Dem up to 75 cents. I was a heavy user of predictit in 2020 and made a few hundred dollars but it was very stressful so i stopped. Sad that it’s going out of business- was a a great way to get immediate feedback on elections. Although it always has a r bias.
Solid update of the house election as of 9:30 pm eastern on Friday. in short, Dems need 3 upsets to get the house. note that if ny had been allowed its gerrymander the Dems would likely have kept the house. Amazing Dem strength.
"Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said more than 50,000 mail-in ballots had yet to be counted with 15,000 votes expected to be tabulated Friday."
and
"Vote totals released from Clark County on Thursday evening showed the mail-in results leaning toward Cortez Masto by nearly a 2-1 margin. Masto gained 7,480 votes in Clark County on Thursday, compared to Laxalt’s 4,195."
So there are legs to this allegedical drop-box thingy, which I now understand to be the same as mail-in. (Is that correct?). If there are 50,000 mail-in/drop-boxers to be counted and Maestro gets 66.6% (2 to 1), then Maestro nets approximately 16,650 votes (50,000 X .666 - 50,000 X .333). That's more than enough to cover the current Laxer surplus bang of 9,000.
What this shows is that we need election-deniers in places in Nevada to abrogate this goddam drop boxing stuff. Get this stuff off the books by 2024. Unless we can train up a critical mass of Republicans how to drop box by then. But I don't know how on god's green earth that could be done in 2 years.
Seems like the Dems have cornered the market on the nursing homes. For Nevada I think we need to send jamin to all of the brothels in Reno and counties surrounding Las Vegas and get ladies of the night to fill in ballots for Republican candidates. They'll do anything for a buck.
Many of them aren’t Nevada residents. They fly in from other places for their shifts and make way more money for an hour of work than anybody is going to pay for a vote.
Lake can't win. She will lose by around 58,000 votes.
Lake is down 31,097. Hobbes is leading in both Maricopa (52.4%) and Pima (60.6%), which are by far the largest two counties in AZ, and they have the lowest amount of estimated votes in (Maricopa is 82% and Pima is 78% -- most of the smaller counties at 95%).
This will be a defeat for both the rule of secular law as well as Biblical law.
Made the following (small) bets yesterday when they dipped for the heck of it:
NV senate D @ 60c
AZ senate D @ 75c
Overall house R @ 79c
Riskier bets today:
AZ governor R @ 43c (my understanding is it's mostly day-of and non-mail drop box remaining)
GA senate R @ 28c (thinking Democrat enthusiasm is overestimated right now)
Good stuff. You won NV and AZ senator but lost AZ guvnor. New data dump tonight has the Dem up to 75 cents. I was a heavy user of predictit in 2020 and made a few hundred dollars but it was very stressful so i stopped. Sad that it’s going out of business- was a a great way to get immediate feedback on elections. Although it always has a r bias.
Yeah, too bad, hopefully something else takes its place.
Not counting out AZ governor out yet, AZ swung R at the end in 2020, just not enough to flip. Once they pass 80/20 they're pretty much done.