Official LRC President Joseph R Biden Thread

No, it isn't, Gary. My math is 8th grade algebra.

Her math is like Russian math or something. Bozo math. BLM math. She needs a tutor. "No mathematical path"? Jesus Christ. The path is you calculate the amount of final Hobbs and Lake votes in each county based on estimated vote in and percentage of current votes received, and then add the totals up. That's the mathematical path.

1) It seems like Kelly has won in AZ. I'll wait to celebrate, but I don't see a path for Masters.

2) Laxalt's path is tough. If I HAD to guess right now, I'd say he loses. Just too many votes out in heavily Democratic areas. Again though, no celebrating for me just yet.

3) Would be great if AZ and NV both went Democrat so we don't have to wait for Warnock to destroy Walker in 4 weeks.

4) The best part of all of this is that the moron Trumpers are going down, and finally many of them are starting to move away from Trump. Those people who have supported Trump to this point are still REALLY bad people (and F'n stupid), but at least they aren't going to have an extraordinarily bad person to lead them. There isn't another person in the US who would get away with half the stuff Trump has so far (though he's going to pay the piper).

Mitt Romney giving some ideas to the House Repubs, should they win the House.

Note that the Republican Party has about one percent chance of doing any of this. The Republican Party has a next to zero interest in passing bills to solve problems. That the GOP fundamentally disagrees with a totally conventional belief held by centuries of US congresses shows how adrift in m'aga it is. Repubs can't even agree with basic tenets of representative government. All they want is revenge and punishment and fighting.

Mitt:

The nation is still awaiting the results of several races of the 2022 midterm elections, which will determine which party will control the House and the Senate. The GOP ought to work with the opposing party to fix issues affecting people in the United States, including inflation and climate change, the Utah senator wrote in an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal.
"Robert Frost and politics don’t really mix, but his famous allegory is apt: Two roads diverge before this potential GOP majority," Romney wrote. "The one 'less travelled by' would be to pass bills that would make things better for the American people. The more tempting and historically more frequented road would be to pursue pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats and government shutdowns. The road we choose could make 'all the difference.'"

Romney noted how exit polls stated that "inflation remains a top voter concern" and to address this, Congress needs to work on changes to "revenues, benefits and eligibility" without getting rid of any programs and without affecting near-retirees.
For climate change, the senator recommended working on reducing global emissions through funding technology research that can be used across the world and "slapping penalties on imports from prolific emitters."

Many are noting that if the Dems win the senate in NV, there just won't be much fire for the GOP voters to show up for the GA runoff. Since the senate is already lost.

Which would make 51D-49R Senate the most likely outcome at this point.

I still think Trump is the leader of the GOP. Several times we've seen the GOP try to crawl away from him but then return to him a few weeks later. There is no GOP without Trump and he still owns it.

Or another way...if the GOP does try to dump trump he'll burn it all down - tell his people that the Ds and Rs are all the same so don't vote anymore. Trump will sell m'aga something other than politics to occupy their minds and let them rage.

What excuse will the Dems have for getting nothing done for the people over the next 2 yrs then?

That 65,000 would be approximately 4,600 more votes than expected, or 7% over expected. I suppose that's not too off. Not enough for a normal person to yell fraud.

Clark county votes are 50.1% to Cortez and 47.2% to Lax. For the 65,000 drop box votes, that would yield 32,565 to Cortez and 30,680 to Lax, for a Cortez surplus of 1,885. She needs 8,998 on the current reported deficit or 6,520 under my brilliant math prediction above. Can drop boxes skew that way as opposed to non-drop box voting?

To make up the current reported Cortez deficit of 8,988 votes by themselves, those drop box would have to have votes going 56.9% to Cortez and 43.1% to Lax. Do drop boxes go roughly 7% point higher for Dems than non-drop box voting? I suppose that's possible.

It's not unreasonable to narrow down the analysis to just the drop boxes -- the remaining outstanding ballots from the rest of the Nevada counties will narrow Lax's current reported 8,988 to a 6,520 victory margin (see above). So if the Clark drop boxes are around 6-7% higher for Cortez than her current 50.1% in Clark county, then Cortez would win by around 1,300 votes.

Are these drop boxes favored by Dems that much over Reps?

What's the fire for the democrats to show up?

Strong disagree. Rupert Murdock is blatantly publically against him now. They've started calling DeSantis, "DeFuture." The only Trump-backed candidate that did WELL was Vance in my backwards state of Ohio. Republicans who are at odds with Trump did well...Kemp, Sununu, DeSantis.

M*A*G*A support just isn't there for him. Some vocal minority morons like a few who post here, but that's it. Going to get even worse as the indictments start to come down. This election was the turning point...evidence that support of that POS is not there any more.

Lax's path is not tough. It's easier than Cortez's. There are no "heavily Democratic areas" in Nevada that we know of. We don't have the granularity to find one, if they exist. We have Nevada counties. You need to quit speaking in broad generalities couched in qualified guesses. It's meaningless and pompous at the same time.

There are 2 out of 17 Nevada counties in which Cortez is winning - Clark and Washoe. Her percentage leads in are 51.5% to 45.6% in Clark and 50.1% to 47.2% in Washoe. That is not "heavily Democratic."

Clark is 91% counted and Washoe is 89% counted. Cortez would lose by 6,520 if current voting percentages throughout Nevada counties remained the same, and it is more than reasonable when 88% of the vote is in to conclude that they will. Cortez needs these alleged Clark county drop boxes to skew around 57% in her favor as opposed to 50% if she is going to win.

abortion, defending democracy, loathing of DJT, J6, the obvious lack of qualifications of walker, loathing of the cruelty of m'aga etc

I think african americans in a former jim crow state have a special worry about 'conservatives' in office too.

Democrats won't need any excuses. Biden has done so much in the first 2 years that he can (and WILL) run on that.

Inflation IS continuing to go down (just because we are moving away from the thing that caused it...nothing to do with anything Biden has done). I guarantee Biden (or whomever is the Democratic nominee) will say this, probably verbatim:

"We passed the Inflation Reduction Act, and we saw inflation drop from 9% back down to normal levels as a result."

And NO, the Inflation Reduction Act has had NOTHING to do with inflation starting to go down and will have had NOTHING to do with it getting to the place it will be in 2024, but that will be said a million times anyway. Detractors won't really be able to defend against that statement very well either...I mean, Democrats DID get the Inflation Reduction Act passed, and then inflation WILL have gone down a lot.

As is always the case with Presidential elections (ESPECIALLY when it is not a change election), it will take a recession or major scandal or unpopular war to unseat the current party in the White House. Biden won't lose just because he's old. Wet dream for Republicans to think that. Now, if Biden has a stroke or something like that very close to election day, THAT could change the outcome, but barring anything like that, it will take a recession or scandal or unpopular war for a Republican to win the White House in 2024.

agip wrote:

Note that the Republican Party has about one percent chance of doing any of this. The Republican Party has a next to zero interest in passing bills to solve problems. Repubs can't even agree with basic tenets of representative government. All they want is revenge and punishment and fighting.
Mitt:
The nation is still awaiting the results of several races of the 2022 midterm elections, which will determine which party will control the House and the Senate. The GOP ought to work with the opposing party to fix issues affecting people in the United States, including inflation and climate change, the Utah senator wrote in an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal.
"Robert Frost and politics don’t really mix, but his famous allegory is apt: Two roads diverge before this potential GOP majority," Romney wrote. "The one 'less travelled by' would be to pass bills that would make things better for the American people. The more tempting and historically more frequented road would be to pursue pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats and government shutdowns. The road we choose could make 'all the difference.'"
Romney noted how exit polls stated that "inflation remains a top voter concern" and to address this, Congress needs to work on changes to "revenues, benefits and eligibility" without getting rid of any programs and without affecting near-retirees.
For climate change, the senator recommended working on reducing global emissions through funding technology research that can be used across the world and "slapping penalties on imports from prolific emitters."
Basically, what you are saying is that the Republicans shouldn't do what the Democrats spent the last six years doing (trying to prosecute the president and his adherents). And we need to try to find a way to undo the damage the Democrats inflicted on America over the past two years with regards to inflation. The effects of the American Rescue Plan should be somewhat transitory, as most of that money has already been spent and the corrective actions that the Fed was forced to take in response have started to reign in some of that liquidity (governors could have returned their artificial surpluses from the ARP to the Fed, but instead most used it to buy votes by giving it to their constituents where it added to inflation).
However, the bigger issue that has not been addressed is the impact of Biden's executive order 13990 regarding oil and gas production. That order will continue to add to energy inflation (and thus inflation on everything else) for the foreseeable future, as demand for electricity increases (from the increased demand for electric vehicles) and increased demand for LNG in Europe after the damage to the Nordstream pipelines. Renewables like wind and solar are "cheap" because they have gas turbines backing them up. There is no cost-effective alternative to gas turbines in most locations with current technologies. It is fine to invest in the pursuit of cost-effective alternatives, but we should not purposefully drive up the cost of the incumbent technology just for the sake of being green, as it severely impacts businesses, those on fixed budgets (like retirees) and the poor. I'm all for bipartisan efforts, but let's not act like Democrats are not guilty of the same things you are currently accusing the Republicans of, and the inflation issue is very much a creation of policies enacted by the current Democratic regime.

it's all about the primaries...m'aga votes in the primaries and won't show up for you unless you are pro-trump, pro J6, election denier etc. The whole 9 yards.

as for murdoch...he's just selling papers. He doesn't really care. he tried ending m'aga before and went crawling back and he'll do it again.

I also think that the Ds are a bit less fire dependent than the Rs.

I also think that the Ds are a bit less fire dependent than the Rs.

I think the opposite is true.

And to agip, I already know what *issues* people vote on. I'm asking why turnout won't be depressed among Democrats given the senate majority is locked up, given you think that will be the case for Republicans.

We shall see. If you are so sure, you should go make a bet somewhere as the odds are still saying the Democrat wins there. Laxalt could very well win. I am far from sure that he will lose, but again, at this point if I HAD to guess, I'm going with him losing. Graham is already talking about fraud if he loses...methinks he sees the writing on the wall. We shall see. I haven't been wrong yet on any of the Senate races. Perhaps I will be on this one.