So, you backpedaled from your previous assertive statement. Just like a dumb@ss beta. Got it.
Nutbar.
Stop making excuses. Be a man and admit that you were wrong. You claimed that I never said that Mastriano needed a miracle. Come on, you can do it.
Nah...you can't make such strong declarative statements and then right on the doorstep of the election change your mind because the evidence is just as clear as it always was.
You need to go see a doctor about your election denier nonsense. Nutbar.
My prediction was for a 52 GOP seat Senate. That is in no way an "out-of-touch reality prediction."
I said that Mastriano would need a miracle to win.
I did pick Oz to win and I accept the loss; however, the Senate races are not over yet. I am confident of my worst case scenario of 51 GOP seats and my 52 seat prediction is still alive.
Every vote dump in AZ from today until they are completed, will show BOTH Kari Lake & Blake Masters taking the lion's share. The Dems have in reality shot their load, NOW the majority of the ballots being counted favor the GOP in AZ. Watch as Kelly's & Hobbs' leads shrink.
In NV Laxalt is leading in Washoe County (which Biden easily won). It is providing a massive cushion to overcome Clark County (which is trending GOP now) dem votes. Laxalt will win.
So long as the votes yet to count follow the trend for all of the votes already counted in each county, Laxalt should win by about 30,000 votes. Laxalt is winning every county but Clark. based upon the existing ratios by county, here is the plus and minuses by county that should occur if the votes yet to record follow the same trend as those already recorded:
Lincoln - Net 70 for Laxalt
Lyon - Net 3,380 for Laxalt
Mineral - Net 25 for Laxalt
Nye - Net 1,220 for Laxalt
Pershing - Net 86 for Laxalt
Storey - Net 52 for Laxalt
Washoe - Net 2,775 for Laxalt
White Pine - Net 96 for Laxalt
Carson City - Net 666 for Laxalt
Churchill - Net 456 for Laxalt
Clark - Net 5,269 for Cortez Mastro
Douglas - Net 2,426 for Laxalt
Elko - Net 1,521 for Laxalt
Esmeralda - Net 15 for Laxalt
Eureka - Net 52 for Laxalt
Humboldt - Net 324 for Laxalt
Lander - Net 67 for Laxalt
If the votes stray from the established trends, they would have to favor Cortez Mastro by 10.64%, while the trend for all of the other votes in the affected areas to have favored Laxalt by 3.75% Only time will tell.
My prediction was for a 52 GOP seat Senate. That is in no way an "out-of-touch reality prediction."
I said that Mastriano would need a miracle to win.
I did pick Oz to win and I accept the loss; however, the Senate races are not over yet. I am confident of my worst case scenario of 51 GOP seats and my 52 seat prediction is still alive.
Every vote dump in AZ from today until they are completed, will show BOTH Kari Lake & Blake Masters taking the lion's share. The Dems have in reality shot their load, NOW the majority of the ballots being counted favor the GOP in AZ. Watch as Kelly's & Hobbs' leads shrink.
In NV Laxalt is leading in Washoe County (which Biden easily won). It is providing a massive cushion to overcome Clark County (which is trending GOP now) dem votes. Laxalt will win.
So long as the votes yet to count follow the trend for all of the votes already counted in each county, Laxalt should win by about 30,000 votes. Laxalt is winning every county but Clark. based upon the existing ratios by county, here is the plus and minuses by county that should occur if the votes yet to record follow the same trend as those already recorded:
Lincoln - Net 70 for Laxalt
Lyon - Net 3,380 for Laxalt
Mineral - Net 25 for Laxalt
Nye - Net 1,220 for Laxalt
Pershing - Net 86 for Laxalt
Storey - Net 52 for Laxalt
Washoe - Net 2,775 for Laxalt
White Pine - Net 96 for Laxalt
Carson City - Net 666 for Laxalt
Churchill - Net 456 for Laxalt
Clark - Net 5,269 for Cortez Mastro
Douglas - Net 2,426 for Laxalt
Elko - Net 1,521 for Laxalt
Esmeralda - Net 15 for Laxalt
Eureka - Net 52 for Laxalt
Humboldt - Net 324 for Laxalt
Lander - Net 67 for Laxalt
If the votes stray from the established trends, they would have to favor Cortez Mastro by 10.64%, while the trend for all of the other votes in the affected areas to have favored Laxalt by 3.75% Only time will tell.
why do I think Joe is missing something very important or is misleading us?
Why? Why would I think that?
And when Joe's 'expertise' is proven wrong by actual results...he will claim fraud. Rather than saying 'hey maybe I don't understand how all this works.'
Anyway, odds have not budged much...just a 37% chance the R wins NV. 1 in 3 chance.
So long as the votes yet to count follow the trend for all of the votes already counted in each county, Laxalt should win by about 30,000 votes. Laxalt is winning every county but Clark. based upon the existing ratios by county, here is the plus and minuses by county that should occur if the votes yet to record follow the same trend as those already recorded:
Lincoln - Net 70 for Laxalt
Lyon - Net 3,380 for Laxalt
Mineral - Net 25 for Laxalt
Nye - Net 1,220 for Laxalt
Pershing - Net 86 for Laxalt
Storey - Net 52 for Laxalt
Washoe - Net 2,775 for Laxalt
White Pine - Net 96 for Laxalt
Carson City - Net 666 for Laxalt
Churchill - Net 456 for Laxalt
Clark - Net 5,269 for Cortez Mastro
Douglas - Net 2,426 for Laxalt
Elko - Net 1,521 for Laxalt
Esmeralda - Net 15 for Laxalt
Eureka - Net 52 for Laxalt
Humboldt - Net 324 for Laxalt
Lander - Net 67 for Laxalt
If the votes stray from the established trends, they would have to favor Cortez Mastro by 10.64%, while the trend for all of the other votes in the affected areas to have favored Laxalt by 3.75% Only time will tell.
why do I think Joe is missing something very important or is misleading us?
Why? Why would I think that?
And when Joe's 'expertise' is proven wrong by actual results...he will claim fraud. Rather than saying 'hey maybe I don't understand how all this works.'
Anyway, odds have not budged much...just a 37% chance the R wins NV. 1 in 3 chance.
five minutes of poking around reveals why the D is favored in NV. Analyzing the vote is complicated.
NYT:
The Republican Adam Laxalt leads the Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.7 percentage points at this hour, but most of the remaining vote is expected to be Democratic-leaning mail ballots and provisional ballots, including from same-day registrants.
Fun to go through some very bad predictions of midterms.
Gary wasnt' the only poor prognosticator.
1. It's astonishing how wrong so many of the predictions of a 'red wave/tsunami' were. I for one am fed up with pundits and commentators getting things so, so wrong & then just... moving on.
So here's a thread/reminder of some of the worst midterm predictions. Read/share/enjoy:
So long as the votes yet to count follow the trend for all of the votes already counted in each county, Laxalt should win by about 30,000 votes. Laxalt is winning every county but Clark. based upon the existing ratios by county, here is the plus and minuses by county that should occur if the votes yet to record follow the same trend as those already recorded:
Lincoln - Net 70 for Laxalt
Lyon - Net 3,380 for Laxalt
Mineral - Net 25 for Laxalt
Nye - Net 1,220 for Laxalt
Pershing - Net 86 for Laxalt
Storey - Net 52 for Laxalt
Washoe - Net 2,775 for Laxalt
White Pine - Net 96 for Laxalt
Carson City - Net 666 for Laxalt
Churchill - Net 456 for Laxalt
Clark - Net 5,269 for Cortez Mastro
Douglas - Net 2,426 for Laxalt
Elko - Net 1,521 for Laxalt
Esmeralda - Net 15 for Laxalt
Eureka - Net 52 for Laxalt
Humboldt - Net 324 for Laxalt
Lander - Net 67 for Laxalt
If the votes stray from the established trends, they would have to favor Cortez Mastro by 10.64%, while the trend for all of the other votes in the affected areas to have favored Laxalt by 3.75% Only time will tell.
why do I think Joe is missing something very important or is misleading us?
Why? Why would I think that?
And when Joe's 'expertise' is proven wrong by actual results...he will claim fraud. Rather than saying 'hey maybe I don't understand how all this works.'
Anyway, odds have not budged much...just a 37% chance the R wins NV. 1 in 3 chance.
Relax, it's a purely analytical post. He's just doing the math most people are too lazy to. Doesn't mean it will be the result.
Probably true, but that has nothing to do with me. I'm not the one who said with full confidence that big losers Mastriano and Oz would win. Mastriano had NO chance right from the beginning, and the ONLY reason Oz got anywhere close is because Fetterman had a stroke and some were concerned about his health. Absolutely ZERO reason to be so sure that both of those fools would win.
Gary called for a "red earthquake." Didn't happen. He deserves ridicule over his out-of-touch-with-reality predictions.
Gary is a fool and, because he believes the 2020 election was stolen, batsh!t crazy.
Don't leave out Hardloper's near-guarantee that Smiley would win WA based on his 9 yard-sign scientific poll.
Any of you alleged conservatives that are abandoning Trump for DeSanctimonium are fair-weathered friends of feather, and you WILL regret your sedition.
Trump has a LONG memory, he plays the LONG game, and he plays to win like a Death Match. You sure you want to go up against the man? Best to reconsider snap decisions made in your current emotional state and re-align yourselves with America and how to make it great again.
Yipes AZ Senator is coming back into play. Still just 20% chance of a R victory but rising.
This shouldn't be a surprise. I told you that both Lake & Masters benefit big time from the election day drops. The leads that Kelly, Hobbs and Fontes currently have will be GONE by Thursday night or by Friday morning.
The GOP is going for a clean sweep in AZ: Governor, Senate & Sec of State.
Yipes AZ Senator is coming back into play. Still just 20% chance of a R victory but rising.
Blake Masters was down by 90,000 votes last night. Believe it or not, that was not a big enough lead for Kelly. If I were Kelly right now, I would start worrying. Kelly needed over a 100K lead and he didn't get it.
I keep telling you, the upcoming vote drops heavily favor the GOP from this point forward. Be afraid agip, be very afraid.