^funny, your life is consumed by the narcissistic Igy....what does that say about you, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy?
^funny, your life is consumed by the narcissistic Igy....what does that say about you, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy?
^ Are you talking to me? You’re pointing at the page count. Tell Sally to get you another mimosa.
^An answer to this question would begin to outline the extent of your psychosis: “How many handles have you registered for the sole purpose of harassing Igy?” Certainly we could find that out thru the courts if we chose to. But what would be the purpose? To prove to someone else you are nuts?
^ I’m sure the courts would love to learn how many different handles you have used, Mr. Alltalkbutnoaction. So you accuse of that which you are yourself guilty. Sally, more mimosas!
^I am not Sally, sorry deluded one.
agip wrote:
days like today are why it is so hard to beat the market by trading.
Market down for around five weeks, plenty of bad news...then a massive rally on a hint of trade talks.
What do you do? Buy back in thinking this was just another 8% meaningless drawdown so buy the dip? In theory, in a trading range market you buy the dip and sell the peak and make money that way.
Or do you take advantage of a monster rally like this to sell, thinking that the underlying news remains bad so keep selling?
So hard to do. Impossible, really.
I'm about as light in stocks as I've ever been - around 60%. But that understates my risk because I have another 5% or so in short term high yield bonds.
Stocks rallied because it seems like the Fed is going to cut interest rates before the end of the year, maybe even twice. No one cares about tariffs really, as those dips have always been immediately bought back the next day or two. Fed policy is the only thing that can determine direction of this market
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
days like today are why it is so hard to beat the market by trading.
Market down for around five weeks, plenty of bad news...then a massive rally on a hint of trade talks.
What do you do? Buy back in thinking this was just another 8% meaningless drawdown so buy the dip? In theory, in a trading range market you buy the dip and sell the peak and make money that way.
Or do you take advantage of a monster rally like this to sell, thinking that the underlying news remains bad so keep selling?
So hard to do. Impossible, really.
I'm about as light in stocks as I've ever been - around 60%. But that understates my risk because I have another 5% or so in short term high yield bonds.
Stocks rallied because it seems like the Fed is going to cut interest rates before the end of the year, maybe even twice. No one cares about tariffs really, as those dips have always been immediately bought back the next day or two. Fed policy is the only thing that can determine direction of this market
it was mostly fed talk, but also some trade talk.
Disagree about the irrelevance of trade talk tho...for a while every time it looked like a breakthrough between china and the us happened the market would rise.
But who knows.
Not a good thing that the Fed is so influential right now. That can't been healthy. Paper shuffling.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Stocks rallied because it seems like the Fed is going to cut interest rates before the end of the year, maybe even twice. No one cares about tariffs really, as those dips have always been immediately bought back the next day or two. Fed policy is the only thing that can determine direction of this market
it was mostly fed talk, but also some trade talk.
Disagree about the irrelevance of trade talk tho...for a while every time it looked like a breakthrough between china and the us happened the market would rise.
But who knows.
Not a good thing that the Fed is so influential right now. That can't been healthy. Paper shuffling.
Right after I posted that, ADP reported a payroll increase of on only 27k vs like 270k expected. Also, I'm glad I got out of oil when I did because it's dead. Global economy certainly slowing but will it matter as long as rates stay low?
Also, one of the reasons the Fed is so influential right now is because of Powell's "wait-and-see" approach. On one hand, they're more flexible than they were in the past and not married to a position. On the other hand, it leaves A LOT of room for uncertainty and speculation. Back in the day when Greenspan said they're gonna hike 5 times this year, it would definitely suck but at least you knew that was gonna be the deal.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Nah yourself, I am the guy that said the market peaked January 2018. Guess what, that is the correct view.
OK- So who's been posting that the Bull Market has still been running since then?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^I am not Sally, sorry deluded one.
Try posting after you’ve had your coffee.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
it was mostly fed talk, but also some trade talk.
Disagree about the irrelevance of trade talk tho...for a while every time it looked like a breakthrough between china and the us happened the market would rise.
But who knows.
Not a good thing that the Fed is so influential right now. That can't been healthy. Paper shuffling.
Right after I posted that, ADP reported a payroll increase of on only 27k vs like 270k expected. Also, I'm glad I got out of oil when I did because it's dead. Global economy certainly slowing but will it matter as long as rates stay low?
Also, one of the reasons the Fed is so influential right now is because of Powell's "wait-and-see" approach. On one hand, they're more flexible than they were in the past and not married to a position. On the other hand, it leaves A LOT of room for uncertainty and speculation. Back in the day when Greenspan said they're gonna hike 5 times this year, it would definitely suck but at least you knew that was gonna be the deal.
in the end it's just a self fulfilling prophecy, though, right? Like how the only reason chartism works...it because enough people believe it works.
Buying the market when the Fed is dovish is just traders trading with other traders...playing a game they think they know the rules to.
Because really. Does it matter to the economy if the Fed Funds rate is 2.25% or 2%? Really? I don't think so.
It's just traders and algo programs doing their thing with each other.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^funny, your life is consumed by the narcissistic Igy....what does that say about you, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy?
You invite your so called "harassment" claim by responding with insults, name calling, etc. to anybody who voices any hint of a pro stock market investment strategy. As of today, I think your claim that stock market purchases since 2011 will not turn out well, has no basis.
Now, let the insults fly.
^registered handle #? from the scary crazy Igy obsessed guy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^registered handle #? from the scary crazy Igy obsessed guy
That’s not a registered handle. Try to keep up.
I guess you are right.
Enough with responses to scary crazy Igy obsessed guy, it never ends.
Now to Fed rate cuts and influence on the direction of the markets:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1135999190595702786
mister wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^funny, your life is consumed by the narcissistic Igy....what does that say about you, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy?
You invite your so called "harassment" claim by responding with insults, name calling, etc. to anybody who voices any hint of a pro stock market investment strategy. As of today, I think your claim that stock market purchases since 2011 will not turn out well, has no basis.
Now, let the insults fly.
He models the behavior of his god Trump. Take one as seriously as you take the other.
agip wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
There is no choice in what to do. If you have money on the side buy into the market! The market WILL rebound. It always does. In 2 months it will be up to previous highs. The market ALWAYS rebounds. Sometimes it may take a while but it always rebounds. 10% annually or 11% with dividends reinvested. Like clockwork. For the last 130 years.
The problem with that theory is that it is not clockwork - a new high could come tomorrow or 20 years from now. I'm nearing retirement...a 50% drawdown would be a life altering event for me. We've had two of those in the last 20 years.
If there were no choice in what to do...everyone, from 10 year olds to 95 year olds would be 100% in stocks.
Yes, you are right. You are close to retirement. My advice was for those not nearing retirement. I still feel the market will be up to earlier highs in 3 months or less. Of course I may be wrong but there is so much money on the sidelines and no other investment alternative even close to matching what the market has done historically. Again, you nearing retirement would be wise to change up your portfolio.