Down goes the Dow

Sally Vix wrote:

It [market] has gone up 400% since 2009. Why is there any discussion here?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

This thread is a joke. Igy has been predicting the demise of the market for 8 years. It has gone up 400% since 2009. Why is there any discussion here?

You are the joke 1) a male using the handle “Sally, Vixx” 2) you quote double digit market returns when the past 20 years is half that, and 3) I first posted here 3/4/2015, so bag the 2011 thing.

Come on Igy - you have been predicting the demise of the market for the whole time here. Please admit that.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Not if you bought it March of 2000, if so your analyzed return about 1%. I am assuming those that buy today will have a similar experience. In fact by mid-summer all 2019 technology returns will be erased.

yes, that's true, if you took every dollar of your money and invested it at the very tippy top of the biggest stock bubble of the last 100 years, you would not have done too well. I don't think that's a very good point.

Plenty of good data supporting you are there again. Take cheap money away and all the air deflates. Pretty easy to see that really.

China started to inflate their economy again, yet their market is down 5.64% this week. That didn’t last long. There are limits.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

It [market] has gone up 400% since 2009. Why is there any discussion here?

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

What is this crap you are showing me? The market has gone up 400% since 2009. Has it or not? Please don't show me crap/

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are the joke 1) a male using the handle “Sally, Vixx” 2) you quote double digit market returns when the past 20 years is half that, and 3) I first posted here 3/4/2015, so bag the 2011 thing.

Come on Igy - you have been predicting the demise of the market for the whole time here. Please admit that.

No, I have said that overvalued assets, be it stocks or bonds are poor investments. Market history and common sense would view that as a reasonable statement. However you believe their is some magic here, that a double digit market return is going to save your bacon. OK, we’ll see about that.

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

What is this crap you are showing me? The market has gone up 400% since 2009. Has it or not? Please don't show me crap/

I will school you later on how you ignored facts and preferred to rely on market propaganda.

That's what i did. Apple in a big way. In two of my accounts, the Apple holdings exceed 1,000 % gain. Amazon is my next largest holding but i haven't owned that for nearly as long.

Bought a little more google today, wanted to add a few more shares before earning announcement on Monday.

Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? Do you really put in only what you can afford to lose? That seems to fly in the face of the whole 401k/IRA idea.

Maserati has said 3.x%, and that he can afford to lose it. I have about 60% in US stocks, the rest is home equity and a bit of cash, I can’t afford to lose that 60%. But I can’t afford to put in less because I don’t have enough to generate meaningful returns otherwise.

401k man wrote:

Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? Do you really put in only what you can afford to lose? That seems to fly in the face of the whole 401k/IRA idea.

Maserati has said 3.x%, and that he can afford to lose it. I have about 60% in US stocks, the rest is home equity and a bit of cash, I can’t afford to lose that 60%. But I can’t afford to put in less because I don’t have enough to generate meaningful returns otherwise.

I don't think of it as only putting in what i can afford to lose. Even a severe downturn would not be 100% loss, and it would not be down forever.

When you consider my leveraged ETFs, i am in 100%, but the leveraging actually gives me market exposure in excess of that. In which case, figured in the entirety of 401K's trading accounts Roth IRAs, etc, our exposure is 116%.

Please understand that I would not be this extended unless there was sufficient assets involved to withstand a very significant and extended downturn.

Also, I am giving you numbers for all equities and mutual funds, including international mutual funds, not just US equities. I hope that's what you were asking...

401k man wrote:

Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? Do you really put in only what you can afford to lose? That seems to fly in the face of the whole 401k/IRA idea.

Maserati has said 3.x%, and that he can afford to lose it. I have about 60% in US stocks, the rest is home equity and a bit of cash, I can’t afford to lose that 60%. But I can’t afford to put in less because I don’t have enough to generate meaningful returns otherwise.

Depends on your age.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

This thread is a joke. Igy has been predicting the demise of the market for 8 years. It has gone up 400% since 2009. Why is there any discussion here?

You are the joke 1) a male using the handle “Sally, Vixx” 2) you quote double digit market returns when the past 20 years is half that, and 3) I first posted here 3/4/2015, so bag the 2011 thing.

1. How do you know his/her gender?

2. Using the past 20 years is rather narrow minded. Most would be interested in a longer time frame.

3. I saw no reference to 2011 in her post.

401k man wrote:

Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? Do you really put in only what you can afford to lose? That seems to fly in the face of the whole 401k/IRA idea.

Maserati has said 3.x%, and that he can afford to lose it. I have about 60% in US stocks, the rest is home equity and a bit of cash, I can’t afford to lose that 60%. But I can’t afford to put in less because I don’t have enough to generate meaningful returns otherwise.

I'm a standard 65% stocks/35% bonds and cash guy. inside the stock bucket..it's around 55% US and 10% overseas. Although those distinctions don't mean so much any more. Been slowly selling US and Europe and buying emerging markets.

About a third of my net worth is home equity.

I can't afford to lose the investment money of course.

401k man wrote:Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? ...

For me it's 2% in US equities, and that's all in tech (a couple of individual tech stocks in small amounts, the balance in QQQ).

The rest of the breakdown of my net worth (including my partner) is:

7% bonds

28% foreign equities (various markets, in a handful of ETFs, mainly "first world" markets, not emerging markets)

60% home equity

16% company shares

-14% debt (mainly HeLOC)

There's a rounding error in there somewhere...

These choices reflect our current risk tolerance based on age and expected time until retirement for me and my partner.

Ooops… the 28% foreign equities is actually 25% equities and 3% cash. Did the inventory a little too quickly.

In order to include home equity in the response and to put it in a format similar to the other responses, I am re-posting below:

1% REIT and Bonds

2% cash

15% home equity

82% equities (stocks, mutual funds, ETFs), of which 95% US, 4% emerging market, 1% developed markets)

When factoring in the market exposure afforded by the triple leveraged ETFs, 96% of our net worth is exposed to the stock market portion.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1121814826823688192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1121814826823688192&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2019-04-26%2Fdow-drops-nasdaq-pops-after-chinas-worst-week-6-months

Considering the govt shutdown and other Q1 drags, this was a phenomenal GDP report. Of course, the permabears try to spin this to a negative, but most of the rest of us are intelligent enough to see through their baloney.

401k man wrote:Q for everyone: what % of your net worth do you have in US equities right now? ...

Home 46%

CDs/short term bonds/cash 36%

1.5% equities

1.6% managed futures

3% equity short position

11.9% autos/art/jewelry/personal

12% of that total net worth home/auto loans

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

12% of that total net worth home/auto loans

Loans are not counted as part of one’s net worth.