Down goes the Dow

Maserati,

Welcome back. Good to see you back running as well. In regards to the market FOMO is back. In Boise you really see it in the real estate market. There was a 967 square foot 1950s piece of crap in a less desirable neighborhood listed at $285,000. I suppose in 2010 it may have garnered $90k. My personal house I purchased in 2013 would list about 55% higher today. So the same delusion that fuels the stock and bond market is alive and well in both the commercial and residential real estate markets. The growth in multi-family housing (apartments) in our area is unreal. Anyone that thinks it is not overbuilt needs to rethink their thinking. Just hot money seeking a return above Treasuries. Hey real estate always goes up! How quickly people forget? Big fallacy to believe it continues unabated, but I do agree with your theory that there is a lot at stake to keep the bubble inflated. A collapse will threaten the money power structure that pumped the bubble and manipulates the masses. I have sixteen months until retirement so sticking with my conservative approach and will let you youngsters trade the market.

Igy

Mouth Breather wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just regurgitating the same things spouted every day on CNBC. Most of which is nonsense. Every tech associated company in their earnings call throws out “cloud” to get a pass. Data mining is coming under scrutiny or have you misseed that?

So says the guy who regurgitates the same things spouted every day by John Hussman, most of which is nonsense. (For the record, HSGFX is down almost 40% since inception and 10% YTD.)

OK, for the record, bet HSGFX outperforms the S&P 500 close today thru year end 2019 by a least 20%.

For mouth breather, straight from Hussman minutes ago:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1120724917417390088

agip, Sally....wife came out fine....goes home in an hour.....thanks

Igy, good to hear about your wife, let’s hope there is no trounle with infection. Invasive surgeries always have risk.

Us youngsters! I’m no longer young, and haven’t been for a while...but the realities of the “markets” cannot be ignored. Everything I have been saying for years, which used to be dismissed as paranoia, is now going mainstream, and is becoming accepted as the new normal in business, finance, governance, and banking.

Again neither intrinsically good nor bad, just different. Speculation exists on a continuum, but always has one element: events are beyond one’s control. The spectrum is one of predictability—and IMO for years the aggregate markets have been very predictable, with the fed jog a transient anomaly that was rather quickly corrected. The only reason that I have been out has been because I was pursuing other opportunities, and because I wanted to reduce my risk.

But at this point, the risk of being out approaches the risk of being in. Being out is speculative, especially when you consider the alternatives outside the markets.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mouth Breather wrote:

So says the guy who regurgitates the same things spouted every day by John Hussman, most of which is nonsense. (For the record, HSGFX is down almost 40% since inception and 10% YTD.)

OK, for the record, bet HSGFX outperforms the S&P 500 close today thru year end 2019 by a least 20%.

Given your track record, I recommend that you not bet the house.

I am no longer going for real alpha, just going to cruise along with the markets, weighted to ultra-large-caps.

What I tell perma-bears (and sometimes Igy) is that the we're in a new world now and there's not gonna be a move back to pre-2008 interest rate levels or pre-2008 monetary policy. It's just not going to happen. Out with the old, in with the new. The bears insist we have to get back to "normal Fed funds interest rates" and "normal xyz" but this is the new normal now. Maybe in 10 years their will be another "new normal"

Having been at this longer than you, I recalll the same beliefs in 2000 and 2007.

I agree. I am even in China now, and will be buying some asia, not including either CHN or JPN.

There are lots of rich people in the world—enough to keep current systems going for a while yet. To upset things requires not just motivation, but ability, and you never find the two qualities in the same place. The global interconnectedness that underlies this is new, and globalism is still in its infancy. Like other “progress”, it will have a life of its own and will be a juggernaut, good or not. It’s a new era.

I am still working to satisfy on a personal level my vision for civilization as contracting back to where it began, the fertile crescent. Looking for Mediterranean property now.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

What I tell perma-bears (and sometimes Igy) is that the we're in a new world now and there's not gonna be a move back to pre-2008 interest rate levels or pre-2008 monetary policy. It's just not going to happen. Out with the old, in with the new. The bears insist we have to get back to "normal Fed funds interest rates" and "normal xyz" but this is the new normal now. Maybe in 10 years their will be another "new normal"

Having been at this longer than you, I recalll the same beliefs in 2000 and 2007.

To the extent that that’s true, it would be a question of degree, and of fineness and comprehensiveness of control. In that vein, Facebook, Alphabet, Twitter, Microsoft, etc will all be fine because they are now an extension of government, just like the largest banks. Buy the whole sector and don‘t worry if Netflix gets eaten by Disney.

The important thing will be for the Democraps to muzzle dissenters within their ranks, much as the mil-complex Republitards did with their dissenters who advocated for actual free markets. It will happen. Bernie is already the hero of his own life, and OAC is getting marginalized and will likely be beaten next time around. More are coming up, emboldened, but there is still lots of old power. A-holes like Schumer, Biden, Bubba, and Pelosi owe their wealth to the system, just the same as Bltch BcConnell and Schitt Romney. US markets are a great place, along with RE, to launder the proceeds of corruption—and not just US corruption.

Elections WILL matter from now on.

Fun fact on this too : you can look up the holdings of politicians and all the stuff they put in their portfolio. Nancy Pelosi went waaaaaayyy long on AMZN calls expiring in early 2020 back in December, something like $10 million worth of calls. They have since appreciated somewhat in value....

One thing I bought a bunch of was SPXL, that is how strongly I believe in my own narrative—and not to trade, like I have done in the past.

BTW great to see that this theead is alive. I could check while away, but I have too many other things going on to do so. What did I miss? :^)

The key is which businesses provide deliverables to the gov—not just guys like Boeing, but data guys like Twitter.

Lots of businesses support those who actually deliver, but actual deliverers are where the most growth will lie, in the aggregate. Usually direct deliverers are mega-caps.

Of course with the system rigged we all go long and no worries. Common sense says this is complete nonsense. Obviously this is the consensus view which is why it is working. In the end it will will be horribly wrong. For now fools rule the day.

What you are buying, OK....

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7190_1.jpg?itok=hgHCSN88

In what end?

“For now” is how long?

The same could be said about conditions prevailing in any arbitrary window of time, ever. Igy, without specificity, those things are devoid of meaningful practical content.

This is a Dow thread, not an abstract theories of human behavior thread.

What are you looking for these days? Value? Fixed income? What, and for how long? What would make you pivot? Specifically, pragmatically, as I have described.

Maserati,

January 1, 2018 thru March 31, 2019 S&P 500 annualized return 0.457% with reinvested dividends 2.257%. So I feel very comfortable with most of my money in laddered CDs. I plan to get aggressive on the long side S&P 500 1,000-1,500. See no reason to invest aggressively at one of the highest valuations ever. That holds true for most asset classes.

Igy

Incorrect. I made a huge gain on HON, and with my broad-spectrum as described I am up 7.82%, excluding SPXL, which is up more.

That graph is missing a future line, and is therefore lacking. I know more than the information those lines contain.

And to the extent that you can understand why those lines look like they do, I am exstatic to be buying it.

You need to switch gears, Igy. Do you actually trust SEC filings without knowing the details of a business? That’s irresponsible. Do you trust rating agencies? Do you trust the gov like the dept of labor?

There is a lot more to know and understand. We are all rich, we all have heat, shelter, good food, medicine, clean water (except Flint). I have no doubt that you are satisfied with how you live, and justifiably so—but sometimes I wonder why you are in this game at all, with your attitude.

It is because there are no realistic options, that’s why. That’s why the whole world is in, and always has been—but unlike other times in history, the movement of capital today is unprecedented in scale and penetration. It has a buffering effect, and you are a part of that effect.

There are other games—you could get into RE, start a business, or get into private equity...or just go fishing and putter around the garden. All have their rewards. Seems to me that you could achieve more rewards that you value in a different game.

I don’t participate in the markets to further the country, or the GDP, or economic activity—I do it as a rotation to achieve relative gain so that I can apply that gain elsewhere. So, I find gain where I can, and think about risk levels and management. Even when I was in mostly cash, I was buying foreign assets as other currencies fell relative to USD.

The equity markets, as you participate in them, seem to me to be largely unrewarding for you.

I am probably missing something in your character, as I don’t know you personally. But it does make one wonder