Down goes the Dow

I'll keep my eye on the Netflix, thanks for that...

Microsoft i bought back maybe a little less than a year ago becuase they seemed underrated as a tech but were making strong moves into the cloud. And it fit for my needs because i needed to pull back on a portfolio that was getting a little tipsy on the risk end.

Sorry, cuckle to myself when I see how “good news out of them and Microsoft” when the truth is something different with falling revenue and still ladge amounts of debt. Do any of you every read an actual earning statement, those submittec to tthe SEC?

Typos aside, yes I read the earnings statements and listen to the earnings calls. That's why I know Netflix is propped up by massive amounts of debt and it's why, back in December, the stock lost about 40% from ATH. Like I told seattle, they've aggressively funded expansion to other countries and all their original series (some of which are good but they're mostly bad) with massive amounts of debt. Works fine as long as the Fed funds rate stays low

Congratulations. I ‘ll hire you as a proofreader! Nice that investors like you give NFLX a pass. At some point junk rated debt or stock sales to fuel their faux growth will be cut off. I could pay people to buy my lemonade, good business huh Racket?

Sorry, Racket got your post confused with Seattle. A little distracted taking my wife for hernia surgery this morning....

Igy

Not sure how that was interpreted as "giving Netflix a pass" since I called them out for massive amounts of debt and the fact that Disney's streaming service is going to undercut them.

But also I'll just throw this out there for the millionth time : I day trade options and futures contracts. Solid fundamentals is great for long term investment, but hopping on an absolute hysteria train for a couple days can make me a lot of money even if the company is an absolute sh!thole.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sorry, Racket got your post confused with Seattle. A little distracted taking my wife for hernia surgery this morning....

Igy

Hope all is well

MSFT has been on a rise in recent years thanks primarily to their cloud services. I wish I had held onto the shares I sold a few years ago.

NFLX could use the surveillance capitalism route to profitability. The data that they mine, cross-referenced with that available elsewhere, would be very valuable.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sorry, Racket got your post confused with Seattle. A little distracted taking my wife for hernia surgery this morning....

Igy

Hope all is well

Racket,

Thanks. Her second. We were caregivers to her WW II era father. Certain physical toll for doing so, but routine surgery, she should be back home this afternoon.

In regards to NFLX and the market, yes you are right. Fundamentals are out the window. For now. My view, the market has a different tone though than 1/2018 or 9/2018. Now of we push above 3,000, then the blow-off top becomes more likely, and a bigger more dramatic drip in store. If not, this Bull market will

die a slow, painful death.

Igy

Mouth Breather wrote:

MSFT has been on a rise in recent years thanks primarily to their cloud services. I wish I had held onto the shares I sold a few years ago.

NFLX could use the surveillance capitalism route to profitability. The data that they mine, cross-referenced with that available elsewhere, would be very valuable.

You are just regurgitating the same things spouted every day on CNBC. Most of which is nonsense. Every tech associated company in their earnings call throws out “cloud” to get a pass. Data mining is coming under scrutiny or have you misseed that?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mouth Breather wrote:

MSFT has been on a rise in recent years thanks primarily to their cloud services. I wish I had held onto the shares I sold a few years ago.

NFLX could use the surveillance capitalism route to profitability. The data that they mine, cross-referenced with that available elsewhere, would be very valuable.

You are just regurgitating the same things spouted every day on CNBC. Most of which is nonsense. Every tech associated company in their earnings call throws out “cloud” to get a pass. Data mining is coming under scrutiny or have you misseed that?

Honestly it's not a bad idea. Advertisers and companies have shown time and again that they'll pay for any sort of data even remotely linked to a customer. I doubt Netflix has valuable and usable info (at least not in the same way that Facebook and Amazon do) but I don't doubt they could sell it to someone. Until people realize that "big data" is actually nothing more than stdev on a bunch of excel sheets then they'll keep paying top dollar for it

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sorry, Racket got your post confused with Seattle. A little distracted taking my wife for hernia surgery this morning....

Igy

Hope all is well

I hope recovery goes well for your wife.

Thanks agip. She’s a tough gal. My job will be to keep her resting for a couple of days. She was up late folding laundry! Anyway, should be in and out in a couple of hours. Better go....I’ll check in later....

Igy

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just regurgitating the same things spouted every day on CNBC. Most of which is nonsense. Every tech associated company in their earnings call throws out “cloud” to get a pass. Data mining is coming under scrutiny or have you misseed that?

Honestly it's not a bad idea. Advertisers and companies have shown time and again that they'll pay for any sort of data even remotely linked to a customer. I doubt Netflix has valuable and usable info (at least not in the same way that Facebook and Amazon do) but I don't doubt they could sell it to someone. Until people realize that "big data" is actually nothing more than stdev on a bunch of excel sheets then they'll keep paying top dollar for it

Racket,

Exactly. A friend posts his collection of track and field memorabilia on Facebook. So to access he convinced me to join. I found Facebook a nice way to reach out tomy former athletes. So I post about my lymphoma recovery and with hours receive ads posted to Facebook on Round Up lymphoma litigation. Well I have never used Round Up and my lymphoma is probably more linked to the 110 miles a week of running I averaged from 1970-1976.

My firm runs analytics on clients through Salesforce. I received an email yesterday identifying clients for a specific product. The targeted clients, like myself, were not correctly identified for that particular service. So my thought is even though advertisments are more targeted, just a current version of a want ad. As usual most people get sucked in by hype. Proctor and Gamble has curtailed its social media spending.

Igy

On NFLX debt and cash flow:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-23/netflix-selling-another-2-billion-junk-bonds-fund-war-disney

Greetings to all!

Back in USA now, back in markets. Missed all but 5% of the recent rise, I had money deployed elsewhere. One bright spot was HON, which I bought at the bottom because I know something about their operations...regardless of the smoke the CEO was blowimg yesterday on the TV, they are cheap—which IMO is a good idea in this environment.

Yes they do buybacks but who doesn’t. Also they are not really a leader, but a supporter—kind of like a diverse industrial utility...a safer zone with less capex ratio. Worrisome to see the CEO making the rounds, I might sell it soon.

Did a large broad-spectrum S&P buy 2 weeks ago, tech-heavy with lots of AMZN, very little NFLX...also some financials. Trade evolution, no more rate increases and maybe decreases, and an end to QT and likely new QE will float this shxt, same as before. Buybacks are still legal and inflate EPS. You think prices are high now? They are always high.

Been around, and I continue to ask: if not the US equity markets, then where do you park money without actually having to set up a business? I have parked a bunch in europe in certain things, but as I said before, everybody is all-in in the US market.

Nice to hear the tone of this board changing a bit. Fundamentals, meh. Confidence and power are what matter. I will ride this market out until the big events have passed, then will re-evaluate, maybe making some tweaks along the way. I think my overseas stuff will do well in the future, but in the short term I would have done better to have BTFD at its bottom—or to have bought more HON than I did.

In other news, I had my first real track workout in years on Saturday. It was great!!!! Of course paid for it Sunday and Monday, but no injury or tweaks. Now I can start building speed, the fun part. It’s a new day, with some insane early-season performances on the track, and market indexes edging predictably higher. Going to be a great summer, good luck to all!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Thanks agip. She’s a tough gal. My job will be to keep her resting for a couple of days. She was up late folding laundry! Anyway, should be in and out in a couple of hours. Better go....I’ll check in later....

Igy

Igy - Hope your wife is recovering well. Was it a traditional hernia or a sports hernia? I am just getting over a 5-month spell with a sports hernia and just did 11 miles this morning. Great to be finally able to run normally again. I did not want to go the surgery route as a former training partner of mine - a great junior miler - had the surgery about at 25 and was never the same runner afterwards. Again, I hope your wife recovers quickly!

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Thanks agip. She’s a tough gal. My job will be to keep her resting for a couple of days. She was up late folding laundry! Anyway, should be in and out in a couple of hours. Better go....I’ll check in later....

Igy

Igy - Hope your wife is recovering well. Was it a traditional hernia or a sports hernia? I am just getting over a 5-month spell with a sports hernia and just did 11 miles this morning. Great to be finally able to run normally again. I did not want to go the surgery route as a former training partner of mine - a great junior miler - had the surgery about at 25 and was never the same runner afterwards. Again, I hope your wife recovers quickly!

Sally,

Just finished with the surgeon. She is going in for femoral and inguinal left side. She had the same right side. We are both pretty active, running and chores around the house. Not sure exactly what a sports hernia is. Her first hernia was likely from picking her father up when he fell one evening. This one after moving a heavy potted plant from the patio to house prior to winter. I had an inguinal about six months before the wife’s first. Really did not know I had it until discovered it on an annual physical. Boy I felt a difference in a positive way after surgery. My CT scans show I have another on the opposite side. At this point don’t intend to do anything about it.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mouth Breather wrote:

MSFT has been on a rise in recent years thanks primarily to their cloud services. I wish I had held onto the shares I sold a few years ago.

NFLX could use the surveillance capitalism route to profitability. The data that they mine, cross-referenced with that available elsewhere, would be very valuable.

You are just regurgitating the same things spouted every day on CNBC. Most of which is nonsense. Every tech associated company in their earnings call throws out “cloud” to get a pass. Data mining is coming under scrutiny or have you misseed that?

So says the guy who regurgitates the same things spouted every day by John Hussman, most of which is nonsense. (For the record, HSGFX is down almost 40% since inception and 10% YTD.)