Down goes the Dow

Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

I think the point is, with markets trading at higher these valuations, some find reason to avoid market exposure and even not participate at all, precisely becuase they are uncomfortable with the very real possibility that a correction like ones the markets have known in other decades, take as much as 7 or so years to return to former highs. That is understood, and certainly anyone that cannot handle some downturns, corrections, and fluctuations should consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before participating in the market.

But I also think the point is being made that choosing to minimize the risk and forego participation has been apparently done to one's own detriment. Simply put, one who sat out the last 10 or 20 years just missed out on one of the greatest bull runs of all time.

The rear view mirror is clear. What that and our current levels portend for the next few years is anyone's guess.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

That’s the way they work? Overvalued markets lead to long bull markets.

You’re doing a bad job of trying to convince us that high valuations are not good for investors.

Seattle and Mouth Breather,

I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

Good luck with your view.

Igy

Igy, during the period you note, i invested in just about the highest valuation stocks around, and did fantastically well. Growth stocks and FANG. Was that ill-advised? Am i missing something?

Seattle,

How was the performance 12/24/2018? Then multiply that three times to the downside. That is your portfolio risk. You decide if that is worth it, not me.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle and Mouth Breather,

I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

Good luck with your view.

Igy

I offered no “view”. I merely pointed out the FACT that valuations have been high throughout the bull market. YOU are the one who said that is how it works.

As previously documented that is of course false, so play your games with someone less knowledgeable.

Mouth Breather wrote:

Valuations have been high for years, yet we just had 10 years of bull market. Clearly high valuations haven’t had the effect you believed they would.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

You said it, not me.

Always playing your childish games Detector Dude. You really are a loser.

Insults instead of a rational discussion. Well done.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

How was the performance 12/24/2018? Then multiply that three times to the downside. That is your portfolio risk. You decide if that is worth it, not me.

Igy

LOL. I didn't touch one of my FAANG stocks. On the contrary, I took that opportunity to take my profits on TNA and transition it into TQQQ (triple leverage small cap to 3x technology).

Come on, Igy. Sometimes a stock pick is right. It does happen. It does.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle and Mouth Breather,

I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

Good luck with your view.

Igy

WTF are you talking about? I haven’t seen either of those posters ‘model’ anything.

And “purely an academic view”. Don’t make me laugh.

In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.

And you were wrong...again.

In December you were in prime form, make daily jokes about other investor's soiled panties. Now you pick through the litter bin of overhyped IPOs and pound your chest over a one day dip.

And don't think we don't notice.

And your promise of the imminent 60% correction are starting to sound more like the ramblings of a one-time investing has-been rather than any academic viewpoint to be taken seriously.

What it is (and nothing more) wrote:

In December you were in prime form, make daily jokes about other investor's soiled panties. Now you pick through the litter bin of overhyped IPOs and pound your chest over a one day dip.

And don't think we don't notice.

And your promise of the imminent 60% correction are starting to sound more like the ramblings of a one-time investing has-been rather than any academic viewpoint to be taken seriously.

Why don’t you post with your regular handle so your monitor panty moisture can be reconciled ? You know they make something for that.

Lemons wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.

And you were wrong...again.

No, not really, CDs have done better than your stocks the last 15 months. I have been farmore right than you. Ha, ha.....