Sally Vix will translate it into Russian for you. They ran out of drugs & took a nap.
Sally Vix will translate it into Russian for you. They ran out of drugs & took a nap.
You should, too.
Racket wrote:
You need to smoke some weed and chill out dude
Easily the best advice in the history of this thread. Kudos.
“Weed” pe Russki?
Why is it when I look at the recent price action of SPY, the Itsy Bitsy Spider tune plays in my head ?
Came across this paper today .
More dinners at the White House and if things get serious McDonald’s will cater.
I do not like this market, I do not like it at all.
Global economic slowdown, valuations high, earnings barely growing, 1.5 year trading range, political chaos in many places.
I'm selling off my volatile microcap portfolio and replacing it with short term high yield bonds. I'll take my 11% gain this year and just cut 5% coupons for the rest of the year.
In my trading account. In the bulk of my accounts I don't make market timing trades.
and oh yeah, bond yields are collapsing and the yield curve inverted. Odds are the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year.
jesseriley wrote:
Igy had a long talk with me, along with Sally Vix. It’s not my fault he can’t read Russian.
Here is a little something on reading Russian ...
https://www.fluentu.com/blog/russian/how-to-read-russian/Of course there are plenty of financial pundits talking about why the yield curve inversion doesn’t matter even though it has foretold six of the last six recessions. One only has to look at the nearly one percent drop in 10 Year Treasury Yield to note something is amiss. The sugar high from that idiotic tax cut is sending the economy into a diabetic coma.
agip wrote:
I do not like this market, I do not like it at all.
Global economic slowdown, valuations high, earnings barely growing, 1.5 year trading range, political chaos in many places.
I'm selling off my volatile microcap portfolio and replacing it with short term high yield bonds. I'll take my 11% gain this year and just cut 5% coupons for the rest of the year.
In my trading account. In the bulk of my accounts I don't make market timing trades.
agip - i think you are a pretty savvy investor. Why would you EVER make market-timing trades? A relatively well know study in the 90s concluded that 95% of one's portfolio's performance is from sufficient diversification and only 4% was from market-timing and stock-picking. Why would you EVER try to time the market?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course there are plenty of financial pundits talking about why the yield curve inversion doesn’t matter even though it has foretold six of the last six recessions. One only has to look at the nearly one percent drop in 10 Year Treasury Yield to note something is amiss. The sugar high from that idiotic tax cut is sending the economy into a diabetic coma.
yeah mostly agree, although there have been times when the inverted curve has not presaged a recession. Twice, I think.
And let's face it...interest rates are very very low...in the past we've had 5 or 6% interest rates when the curve inverts. Which made money tight and more recession-friendly. Kinda hard to see much of a hard landing with a stimulative fed. Although maybe in terms of real, after-inflation interest rates there isn't much difference.
Funny thing about the tax cut...giving companies a massive tax cut in a good economic time was mocked...but if we are going to a slowdown, a tax cut might not have been the dumbest thing in the world. While Europe has no growth anymore and china is decelerating...we're hanging in there at 2% growth, probably. Maybe the tax cut helped that, I don't know.
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
I do not like this market, I do not like it at all.
Global economic slowdown, valuations high, earnings barely growing, 1.5 year trading range, political chaos in many places.
I'm selling off my volatile microcap portfolio and replacing it with short term high yield bonds. I'll take my 11% gain this year and just cut 5% coupons for the rest of the year.
In my trading account. In the bulk of my accounts I don't make market timing trades.
agip - i think you are a pretty savvy investor. Why would you EVER make market-timing trades? A relatively well know study in the 90s concluded that 95% of one's portfolio's performance is from sufficient diversification and only 4% was from market-timing and stock-picking. Why would you EVER try to time the market?
Because I'm a moron sometimes.
What I do is have around 2% of my money in a trading account, where I muck around. The idea is to get all my yah-yahs out there, where it can't do much damage, and let the other 98% of my money stay muck-free. The trading account is a long-established pressure valve for people who think they are smart. I recommend it to many people.
it's similar to how I use LRC to yell and shout about politics anonymously...so I don't do it on my public FB page or god forbid face to face.
thanks for the kind words
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course there are plenty of financial pundits talking about why the yield curve inversion doesn’t matter even though it has foretold six of the last six recessions. One only has to look at the nearly one percent drop in 10 Year Treasury Yield to note something is amiss. The sugar high from that idiotic tax cut is sending the economy into a diabetic coma.
yeah mostly agree, although there have been times when the inverted curve has not presaged a recession. Twice, I think.
And let's face it...interest rates are very very low...in the past we've had 5 or 6% interest rates when the curve inverts. Which made money tight and more recession-friendly. Kinda hard to see much of a hard landing with a stimulative fed. Although maybe in terms of real, after-inflation interest rates there isn't much difference.
Funny thing about the tax cut...giving companies a massive tax cut in a good economic time was mocked...but if we are going to a slowdown, a tax cut might not have been the dumbest thing in the world. While Europe has no growth anymore and china is decelerating...we're hanging in there at 2% growth, probably. Maybe the tax cut helped that, I don't know.
True in the short term for sure. Really can’t say any of those policies panned out for Japan. Maximum debt levels globally. Not hard to imagine we are pushing on a string now. I think the next couple of years will be interesting on a variety of levels.
I owe you a favor now! Check out the trump MB for a world-class English lesson, prozhousta.
jesseriley wrote:
I owe you a favor now! Check out the trump MB for a world-class English lesson, prozhousta.
No favor needed! Have you picked the cage out yet for your hairdresser?
A thing of beauty doesn’t ask to be noticed! (Walter Mitty movie, 2013)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course there are plenty of financial pundits talking about why the yield curve inversion doesn’t matter even though it has foretold six of the last six recessions.
Plenty? I don’t think so. Certainly there are some saying it doesn’t matter, but there are always those that will support a minority position even when it obviously doesn’t make sense (this thread is a perfect example). But most talking heads are being honest about what this may mean.
Oh, but I think so.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh, but I think so.
Evidence suggests otherwise. Of course, it doesn’t really matter.