What will it take for a new mile WR?

What I said 4 pages ago:

"These athletes may or may not be doped"

"determining whether EPO, or any doping, can work or can fail needs to consider several other external factors relevant to that athlete at that moment"

Answering your questions will require making several assumptions, and the assumptions themselves would end up determining the answers, reflecting pure personal bias.

Let's get to the bottom of this wrote:

However, in a CAS hearing ...

What are you not comprehending?

The CAS hearings would only have value for discussion if they had documented a performance improvement.

Schumacher's and other experts' opinions would be of interest, if and only if they provide performance data related to the elite athletes.

All of your lengthy extracts go on and on and on with blood values, but no performance data.

Schumacher's and other experts' opinions about performance don't come from the elite athletes in CAS hearings, but come from studies.

There is nothing we can conclude with blood values from elites and performance improvements from study subjects.

Let's get to the bottom of this wrote:

So, perhaps you're confused and think elevated blood values from altitude training is performance enhancing (e.g., Stray-Gundersen) but not elevated blood values from doping.

If the Stray-Gundersen subects had a fourth group that had taken EPO, I would expect performance gains at least as much as the hi-lo group.

The issue with the CAS hearings are not high blood values from EPO, but:

1) No performance improvement data specific to these athletes

2) Ignoring other confounding factors not detected or reported

rekrunner wrote:

What I said 4 pages ago:

"These athletes may or may not be doped"

"determining whether EPO, or any doping, can work or can fail needs to consider several other external factors relevant to that athlete at that moment"

Answering your questions will require making several assumptions, and the assumptions themselves would end up determining the answers, reflecting pure personal bias.

I knew you would wimp out. Despite what you say, you don't believe some elite athletes may have doped. To say they "may" have - as you do - assumes facts that are possible but yet to be proven - but you don't assume anything, so you can't even assume your initial claim, that some elite athletes may have doped to a world record. This is despite expert estimates that up to 40% of elites dope. If you had accepted the possibility that some had doped to achieving a record my further questions - which you won't respond to - simply examined the implications of that being factually true. But you can't bring yourself to do that. A bridge too far. Your virginity as a doping denier is safely preserved.

I've always assumed significant prevalence.

You asked me if something was possible.

I have not yet ruled out any possibilities.

On the contrary, given all the uncertainties, almost anything is still possible.

To illustrate what is possible, assuming El G was fully fit, and doped, I see three possibilities at his elite level:

- Doping helped

- Doping was neutral

- Doping made him slower

Without any data, which option(s) you chose depends on your personal bias.

Armstronglivs wrote:

It took a 3.26 runner to achieve a 3.43 mile. No one else since has been close.

False. 1:44/3:28 man Noah Ngeny ran a 3:43 mile mere fractions of a second later.

Armstronglivs wrote:

justbaur wrote:

Timothy Cheruiyot definitely could get close if he was paced correctly. He runs from the front the whole race and goes 3:28 for 1500m.

No, he won't. It took a 3.26 runner to achieve a 3.43 mile. No one else since has been close. Cheruiyot hasn't got another 2 seconds in him unless he does a Kiprop (and then gets busted) or time-travels back to the 90's.

Tim ran 3:29-low in a championship race (i.e. unpaced & fatigued) and won by the biggest margin of victory in WC history over Makhloufi, a triple Olympic medalist and inarguably the best 800-1500 runner of this generation (however shady he may be). El Guerrouj had pacers but never dominated to that extent, even in his 3:27 in ‘99. Tim is a better racer than El Guerrouj and has PRs that are equivalent to Ngeny’s. He most certainly could run 3:43 given good pacing and conditions.

rekrunner wrote:

I've always assumed significant prevalence.

You asked me if something was possible.

I have not yet ruled out any possibilities.

On the contrary, given all the uncertainties, almost anything is still possible.

To illustrate what is possible, assuming El G was fully fit, and doped, I see three possibilities at his elite level:

- Doping helped

- Doping was neutral

- Doping made him slower

Without any data, which option(s) you chose depends on your personal bias.

It "helped", was "neutral" or made him "slower"? And you consider you are informed on doping. You've just said you wouldn't have a clue - whatever your bias might be. (I'm relieved that you're not a a health official dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.) Without "data" you are helpless - blind as a bat. But we already know that.

Tim was flat-out at 3.29. El Guerrouj would have been 30 meters ahead of him. There's no 3 .43 mile in Tim. Not unless he goes back to the 90's and joins Ngeny.

Armstronglivs wrote:

It "helped", was "neutral" or made him "slower"? And you consider you are informed on doping. You've just said you wouldn't have a clue - whatever your bias might be. (I'm relieved that you're not a a health official dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.) Without "data" you are helpless - blind as a bat. But we already know that.

I don't consider myself informed on doping.

I am more mathematician looking for trends and correlations.

Here there is no data and no model.

You are asking me to speculate, based on faith.

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

It "helped", was "neutral" or made him "slower"? And you consider you are informed on doping. You've just said you wouldn't have a clue - whatever your bias might be. (I'm relieved that you're not a a health official dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.) Without "data" you are helpless - blind as a bat. But we already know that.

I don't consider myself informed on doping.

I am more mathematician looking for trends and correlations.

Here there is no data and no model.

You are asking me to speculate, based on faith.

You sure got that one right! Lol.

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

It "helped", was "neutral" or made him "slower"? And you consider you are informed on doping. You've just said you wouldn't have a clue - whatever your bias might be. (I'm relieved that you're not a a health official dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.) Without "data" you are helpless - blind as a bat. But we already know that.

I don't consider myself informed on doping.

I am more mathematician looking for trends and correlations.

Here there is no data and no model.

You are asking me to speculate, based on faith.

"I don't consider myself informed on doping."

Finally, we can.agree on something.

Perhaps this illustrates the disconnect.

You asked me a question about the relation between doping and an elite performance, specifically El G's mile.

I confess this is information I do not have, and any answer I provide would be uninformed.

Those who are informed about both doping and performance have failed to establish the relationship between doping and improvements in elite performances. There is insufficient data, and there is no model.

Even those who have tried using studies on non-elite subjects producing non-elite performances, have been accused of over-estimating the effect, both critically and statistically.

To provide an informed answer to your questions, more studies are needed.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Sad Ngeny noises wrote:

False. 1:44/3:28 man Noah Ngeny ran a 3:43 mile mere fractions of a second later.

Tim ran 3:29-low in a championship race (i.e. unpaced & fatigued) and won by the biggest margin of victory in WC history over Makhloufi, a triple Olympic medalist and inarguably the best 800-1500 runner of this generation (however shady he may be). El Guerrouj had pacers but never dominated to that extent, even in his 3:27 in ‘99. Tim is a better racer than El Guerrouj and has PRs that are equivalent to Ngeny’s. He most certainly could run 3:43 given good pacing and conditions.

Tim was flat-out at 3.29. El Guerrouj would have been 30 meters ahead of him. There's no 3 .43 mile in Tim. Not unless he goes back to the 90's and joins Ngeny.

Right, what part of "unpaced & fatigued" has your biased brain failed to grasp?

And how about the reference to Ngeny that you ignored in your reply?

You talk about rekrunner but you ignore facts presented to you when they show your incredible ignorance about the sport. And you say you were a sports journalist... Figures. Misquote people, ignore facts to suit your narrative...

rgege wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Tim was flat-out at 3.29. El Guerrouj would have been 30 meters ahead of him. There's no 3 .43 mile in Tim. Not unless he goes back to the 90's and joins Ngeny.

Right, what part of "unpaced & fatigued" has your biased brain failed to grasp?

And how about the reference to Ngeny that you ignored in your reply?

You talk about rekrunner but you ignore facts presented to you when they show your incredible ignorance about the sport. And you say you were a sports journalist... Figures. Misquote people, ignore facts to suit your narrative...

I don't say and have never said I was a sports journalist - you get your facts wrong. My specialty was politics.

Ngeny was also a doper in the EPO era.

No runner in the last 20 years has gotten within 3 seconds of the mile record. Cheruiyot would have to be a 3.26 runner to do it. He won't. He doesn't have that level of improvement in him. The only proof you can have that I am wrong is if he breaks the record. I think I'm safe.

rekrunner wrote:

Perhaps this illustrates the disconnect.

You asked me a question about the relation between doping and an elite performance, specifically El G's mile.

I confess this is information I do not have, and any answer I provide would be uninformed.

Those who are informed about both doping and performance have failed to establish the relationship between doping and improvements in elite performances. There is insufficient data, and there is no model.

Even those who have tried using studies on non-elite subjects producing non-elite performances, have been accused of over-estimating the effect, both critically and statistically.

To provide an informed answer to your questions, more studies are needed.

I prefer your first response. It is more accurate.

All of my responses are accurate.

The mile record of 3:43.13 is insane. And throw in Ngeny's time of 3:43.40 right up there with El G. Both set in 1999..The only two to ever run under 3:44. Both athletes suspicious of doping. In fact, Ngeny, El G & Lagat went 1, 2, 3, in the 1500 at the Sydney Olympics - which was coined the "Drug Games." Lol. There were several undisclosed doping positives for EPO that were just filed away - names never to be released:

''I believe there were a lot of athletes using EPO at the Sydney Olympics who were never brought before the courts. The net wasn't cast wide enough,'' says Robin Parisotto, one of the scientists who developed the off-model test. ''It's impossible to know exactly how many athletes were on it. But they did about 300 unofficial [off model] drugs tests, from which they found seven positives. If they'd done 3000 tests, they probably would have found 70 positives. That would have been an absolute debacle, a scandal.''

Maybe? wrote:

Officialdb wrote:

You're a clown. Jakob closed a 5k in 52 or 53 (can remember) against Gebrihewet last year. Also, his 3:30 1500m clearly show's hes got ludicrous speed for a teenager. go back to the couch.

He’s got decent speed for a 5k runner, but there are plenty of quicker 5k guys. He got annihilated in the WC final by guys with much slower (or nonexistent) 1500m PRs, even though he took the lead.

He’s got decent speed for a teenage 1500m runner, but there have been plenty of teen milers with better quickness. Elliott, Ryun, Ovett, Coe, Walker, etc. Compared to real mile greats, Jakob’s basic speed seems rather pedestrian.

Sebastian Coe wasn’t faster than Jakob over 400 at 18. He eventually went on to split 45 at age 23 after only running 50, then 49, etc at age 18 and 19.

I think his speed improvements came from drugs though.

Somebody has to go 1-2-3 in the Olympics. This happens in every Olympic event in every Olympics.

"Former Olympian Peter Larkins, who was a medical adviser with the 2000 Games organising committee ... believes labelling Sydney 2000 the ''drug games'' is unfair."

How does this article make any sense? Blood testing, whether "on" or "off" model, was not valid for declaring doping positives until 9 years after Sydney Olympics, when the ABP was finally approved. Surely Parisotto was well aware of that in 2010.

rekrunner wrote:

All of my responses are accurate.

Especially when you admit to ignorance.