The early word is the Saratoga Springs girls ran very well at their sectional today......stay tuned on them
The early word is the Saratoga Springs girls ran very well at their sectional today......stay tuned on them
fastTuohy wrote:
The early word is the Saratoga Springs girls ran very well at their sectional today......stay tuned on them
Ella Kurto almost broke 17
Bit of an off race for usual #2/3 Catherine Mongan but they still put 5 under 18.
They averaged about 20 seconds faster than last year when Kelsey Chmiel ran 16:30.
I guess we’ll see if they can get by FM at NYPHSAA.
Their top 4 look pretty close to FM's and Beavercreeks's (strong) top 4s but Saratoga Springs seem to also have a stronger 5 and 6 runner than the other 2 teams #5 runners. This team has been getting stronger and stronger as the season progresses.
fastTuohy wrote:
Their top 4 look pretty close to FM's and Beavercreeks's (strong) top 4s but Saratoga Springs seem to also have a stronger 5 and 6 runner than the other 2 teams #5 runners. This team has been getting stronger and stronger as the season progresses.
Beavercreek has Ewert who is likely too much for Kurto to handle. Depending on the day Roark could also finish ahead of Kurto. The Wheelers should be able to run with Pierce. I think with good races Belisle and Mongan should be with Williams and then Saratoga could put their 6-7 in front of Beavercreek’s 5th. If both teams run well it probably comes down to how many teams have a low stick front runner. This varies from year to year.
FM may have the top team runner at NXN in Walters but Kurto and possibly one of the Wheelers are better than FM’s #2. I think FM likely has the edge at 3-4 although if Saratoga keeps improving maybe not. It will be interesting to see who FM’s #5 actually is. They seem to manage to find someone who can hit at least 110-115 speed ratings by the end of the season and I suspect they will again this year although they do look weaker there than in previous years.
Section2XC wrote:
Beavercreek has Ewert who is likely too much for Kurto to handle. Depending on the day Roark could also finish ahead of Kurto. The Wheelers should be able to run with Pierce. I think with good races Belisle and Mongan should be with Williams and then Saratoga could put their 6-7 in front of Beavercreek’s 5th. If both teams run well it probably comes down to how many teams have a low stick front runner. This varies from year to year.
FM may have the top team runner at NXN in Walters but Kurto and possibly one of the Wheelers are better than FM’s #2. I think FM likely has the edge at 3-4 although if Saratoga keeps improving maybe not. It will be interesting to see who FM’s #5 actually is. They seem to manage to find someone who can hit at least 110-115 speed ratings by the end of the season and I suspect they will again this year although they do look weaker there than in previous years.
You do realize that small differences in the first few runner have a lot less impact on team scoring at the big meets than the differences in the 4/5 runners? Right now, based on results to date, Saratoga Springs 5th runner would score 50-60 points less than the 5th runner of either Beavercreek or FM, maybe 20-30 less than that of Summit, and is right there with the 5th runner of the other really deep team, Great Oak. But as a group Saratoga Springs 1-4 runners look stronger than those of Great Oak or Summit. What happens on December 7 I guess we will find out.
fastTuohy wrote:
Section2XC wrote:
Beavercreek has Ewert who is likely too much for Kurto to handle. Depending on the day Roark could also finish ahead of Kurto. The Wheelers should be able to run with Pierce. I think with good races Belisle and Mongan should be with Williams and then Saratoga could put their 6-7 in front of Beavercreek’s 5th. If both teams run well it probably comes down to how many teams have a low stick front runner. This varies from year to year.
FM may have the top team runner at NXN in Walters but Kurto and possibly one of the Wheelers are better than FM’s #2. I think FM likely has the edge at 3-4 although if Saratoga keeps improving maybe not. It will be interesting to see who FM’s #5 actually is. They seem to manage to find someone who can hit at least 110-115 speed ratings by the end of the season and I suspect they will again this year although they do look weaker there than in previous years.
You do realize that small differences in the first few runner have a lot less impact on team scoring at the big meets than the differences in the 4/5 runners? Right now, based on results to date, Saratoga Springs 5th runner would score 50-60 points less than the 5th runner of either Beavercreek or FM, maybe 20-30 less than that of Summit, and is right there with the 5th runner of the other really deep team, Great Oak. But as a group Saratoga Springs 1-4 runners look stronger than those of Great Oak or Summit. What happens on December 7 I guess we will find out.
Yes, I understand how XC scoring works. I grasp that Saratoga will likely have an edge on most teams in the 5th spot if they run the way they have been running lately at NXN. However, I think Beavercreek could conceivably gap them by 8-10 points in the first spot and perhaps by another 2-5 points in spots 2-4 so they could have a 25 point advantage through the first four which gives them some cushion in the 5th spot. If you look at the milesplit ratings even after Saratoga’s SC romp they still ended up a few points behind Beavercreek. Beavercreek’s state performance was a little better than their regional. Also Beavercreek also needs to only run one more race to get to NXN. Saratoga needs to run at least two more and will likely run three as I doubt they will skip Feds unless it is canceled again.
Speed ratings for Section 2 race now out. Saratoga Springs 147/140/134/132/130/128/126
fastTuohy wrote:
Speed ratings for Section 2 race now out. Saratoga Springs 147/140/134/132/130/128/126
Jeezus, that's incredible. ALL underclassmen too.
1 Kurto, Ella 10 Saratoga Springs 5:36.4 17:02.30 1 147.23 147
3 Wheeler, Sheridan 9 Saratoga Springs 5:43.8 17:24.92 3 139.69 140
7 Wheeler, Mckinley 9 Saratoga Springs 5:49.1 17:41.10 7 134.30 134
9 Belisle, Anya 8 Saratoga Springs 5:51.3 17:47.85 9 132.05 132
10 Hart, McKenzie 9 Saratoga Springs 5:53.1 17:53.17 10 130.28 130
12 Mongan, Catherine 10 Saratoga Springs 5:55.7 18:01.11 12 127.63 128
14 Bush, Emily 8 Saratoga Springs 5:57.7 18:07.16 14 125.61 126
Just a point of reference, last year 126 speed rating was 49th in team scoring, 134 was about 25th. Summits 5th scored at 48 last year.
Meet the team: https://ny.milesplit.com/videos/407757
fastTuohy wrote:
Section2XC wrote:
Beavercreek has Ewert who is likely too much for Kurto to handle. Depending on the day Roark could also finish ahead of Kurto. The Wheelers should be able to run with Pierce. I think with good races Belisle and Mongan should be with Williams and then Saratoga could put their 6-7 in front of Beavercreek’s 5th. If both teams run well it probably comes down to how many teams have a low stick front runner. This varies from year to year.
FM may have the top team runner at NXN in Walters but Kurto and possibly one of the Wheelers are better than FM’s #2. I think FM likely has the edge at 3-4 although if Saratoga keeps improving maybe not. It will be interesting to see who FM’s #5 actually is. They seem to manage to find someone who can hit at least 110-115 speed ratings by the end of the season and I suspect they will again this year although they do look weaker there than in previous years.
You do realize that small differences in the first few runner have a lot less impact on team scoring at the big meets than the differences in the 4/5 runners? Right now, based on results to date, Saratoga Springs 5th runner would score 50-60 points less than the 5th runner of either Beavercreek or FM, maybe 20-30 less than that of Summit, and is right there with the 5th runner of the other really deep team, Great Oak. But as a group Saratoga Springs 1-4 runners look stronger than those of Great Oak or Summit. What happens on December 7 I guess we will find out.
Although I obviously agree that the #4/5 runners have more influence on team standings than the #1/2 runners, I disagree with most (but not all) of the rest of your post.
I think Saratoga's #5 would score about 40 points less than the #5 of Beavercreek, and about 50-60 points less than the #5 of FM. I don't think there would be more than a 10 point difference between Saratoga's #5 and that of Summit or Great Oak - they are all pretty similar IMO. And I would add in Niwot and Boise to that group as well.
I also don't think Saratoga's #1-4 runners look much if any stronger than Great Oak's or Summit's. I think there are three teams that are clearly above the rest in the nation #1-4: Beavercreek, North Central, and FM (probably in that order). Lone Peak and Niwot are probably the next best quartets. I would have Saratoga's quartet in the next group, along with Summit and Great Oak and Boise and St. Francis.
To my eyes, there are 9 teams that are vying for a podium finish at NXN. It'll be interesting to see what happens on that day, but unless someone steps up their game even more than they already have, it'll be a close finish between whichever of those 9 teams that end up running well on December 7.
ObservingObserver wrote:
fastTuohy wrote:
Speed ratings for Section 2 race now out. Saratoga Springs 147/140/134/132/130/128/126
Jeezus, that's incredible. ALL underclassmen too.
1 Kurto, Ella 10 Saratoga Springs 5:36.4 17:02.30 1 147.23 147
3 Wheeler, Sheridan 9 Saratoga Springs 5:43.8 17:24.92 3 139.69 140
7 Wheeler, Mckinley 9 Saratoga Springs 5:49.1 17:41.10 7 134.30 134
9 Belisle, Anya 8 Saratoga Springs 5:51.3 17:47.85 9 132.05 132
10 Hart, McKenzie 9 Saratoga Springs 5:53.1 17:53.17 10 130.28 130
12 Mongan, Catherine 10 Saratoga Springs 5:55.7 18:01.11 12 127.63 128
14 Bush, Emily 8 Saratoga Springs 5:57.7 18:07.16 14 125.61 126
I would be substantially more impressed if none were underclassmen. Running the sh.t out of prepubescent girls needs to stop.
Oh? wrote:
Although I obviously agree that the #4/5 runners have more influence on team standings than the #1/2 runners, I disagree with most (but not all) of the rest of your post.
I think Saratoga's #5 would score about 40 points less than the #5 of Beavercreek, and about 50-60 points less than the #5 of FM. I don't think there would be more than a 10 point difference between Saratoga's #5 and that of Summit or Great Oak - they are all pretty similar IMO. And I would add in Niwot and Boise to that group as well.
I also don't think Saratoga's #1-4 runners look much if any stronger than Great Oak's or Summit's. I think there are three teams that are clearly above the rest in the nation #1-4: Beavercreek, North Central, and FM (probably in that order). Lone Peak and Niwot are probably the next best quartets. I would have Saratoga's quartet in the next group, along with Summit and Great Oak and Boise and St. Francis.
To my eyes, there are 9 teams that are vying for a podium finish at NXN. It'll be interesting to see what happens on that day, but unless someone steps up their game even more than they already have, it'll be a close finish between whichever of those 9 teams that end up running well on December 7.
A couple of things. These are all opinions and noone can be wrong until we see how things work out in Portland. I have not seen any data on North Central yet and in the latest Dyestat ranking they are somewhat of an afterthought. But, I found their recent times, compared to last year and came up with some estimates (really WAGs) based on that. Based on my WAG and the one race I looked at, their top 4 look very strong, but they do have a pretty good gap back to #5, kind of like FM and Beavercreek. Last year in Portland there were about 60 team runners between where Saratoga Springs #5 looks to be, and where these other teams #5 looks to be. Looking at who seems most likely to make it to Portland this year, I see about the same result. So, Saratoga looks to have a huge advantage there. Not factored in other than displacement, but they also have the strong #6/7 if someone has a bad day. I think Great Oak on paper has as good of a team as FM/Beaver Creek/Summit/North Central, and could see any of those teams winning (along with Saratoga) if they run close to their best. I haven't seen anything that puts other (good) teams quite on that level yet. But on paper, I think Saratoga based on what they did today looks pretty strong. We will see them right up against FM in 12 days, and then again 2 weeks later, so maybe something will change. Ditto for the other teams. The #5 runner difference vs FM will mean a lot less in the NY state meet, than at NXN National. May they all run well, and the best team win.
North Central's Allie Janke (defending state champion, and a 10:10 3200m runner) ran her first race of the season this weekend, winning the WA 3A Eastern Regional race in 17:42. They were still on the edge of a very deep NW Top-5 all season long without her, and now with her they are a serious threat to challenge Summit for the NW title. I agree that they have a pretty big gap back to their #5, just like most of the other teams with an elite #1. Still, a #5 that has run 10:59 (3200m) and 5:05 (1600m) isn't too much of a handicap even with how much the girls teams around nation has improved over the last decade.
I think we just disagree about just how good Saratoga's race this weekend was (and how good some of the Rocky Mountain area races were this year, including but not limited to Niwot at Colorado State, Lone Peak at Utah State and Bob Firman, and maybe even Boise at the Idaho State meet - though I do think Boise is a step behind the other 8, just not far enough that a good day by them and only a 'decent' day by the others would prevent them from competing for a spot on the podium). I don't view Saratoga's Section 2 race as being quite as good as what Meylan has it, and I tend to view NXN as being a bit better than what Meylan does. By my estimate, Saratoga's #5 would have been around the #63 or #64 scorer, which is pretty similar to the #65 that I would have in this year's projected field. Meanwhile, the other #5s would be between 60-70 for Great Oak, Boise and Summit while more like 50-55 for Niwot and closer to 100 for teams like North Central, Lone Peak and Beavercreek.
Regardless of our respective opinions, it'll all be settled on the course in about a month. Anything until then is just opinion and speculation.
Oh? wrote:
North Central's Allie Janke (defending state champion, and a 10:10 3200m runner) ran her first race of the season this weekend, winning the WA 3A Eastern Regional race in 17:42. They were still on the edge of a very deep NW Top-5 all season long without her, and now with her they are a serious threat to challenge Summit for the NW title. I agree that they have a pretty big gap back to their #5, just like most of the other teams with an elite #1. Still, a #5 that has run 10:59 (3200m) and 5:05 (1600m) isn't too much of a handicap even with how much the girls teams around nation has improved over the last decade.
I think we just disagree about just how good Saratoga's race this weekend was (and how good some of the Rocky Mountain area races were this year, including but not limited to Niwot at Colorado State, Lone Peak at Utah State and Bob Firman, and maybe even Boise at the Idaho State meet - though I do think Boise is a step behind the other 8, just not far enough that a good day by them and only a 'decent' day by the others would prevent them from competing for a spot on the podium). I don't view Saratoga's Section 2 race as being quite as good as what Meylan has it, and I tend to view NXN as being a bit better than what Meylan does. By my estimate, Saratoga's #5 would have been around the #63 or #64 scorer, which is pretty similar to the #65 that I would have in this year's projected field. Meanwhile, the other #5s would be between 60-70 for Great Oak, Boise and Summit while more like 50-55 for Niwot and closer to 100 for teams like North Central, Lone Peak and Beavercreek.
Regardless of our respective opinions, it'll all be settled on the course in about a month. Anything until then is just opinion and speculation.
Is anyone actually reading these replies?
Oh? wrote:
North Central's Allie Janke (defending state champion, and a 10:10 3200m runner) ran her first race of the season this weekend, winning the WA 3A Eastern Regional race in 17:42. They were still on the edge of a very deep NW Top-5 all season long without her, and now with her they are a serious threat to challenge Summit for the NW title. I agree that they have a pretty big gap back to their #5, just like most of the other teams with an elite #1. Still, a #5 that has run 10:59 (3200m) and 5:05 (1600m) isn't too much of a handicap even with how much the girls teams around nation has improved over the last decade.
I think we just disagree about just how good Saratoga's race this weekend was (and how good some of the Rocky Mountain area races were this year, including but not limited to Niwot at Colorado State, Lone Peak at Utah State and Bob Firman, and maybe even Boise at the Idaho State meet - though I do think Boise is a step behind the other 8, just not far enough that a good day by them and only a 'decent' day by the others would prevent them from competing for a spot on the podium). I don't view Saratoga's Section 2 race as being quite as good as what Meylan has it, and I tend to view NXN as being a bit better than what Meylan does. By my estimate, Saratoga's #5 would have been around the #63 or #64 scorer, which is pretty similar to the #65 that I would have in this year's projected field. Meanwhile, the other #5s would be between 60-70 for Great Oak, Boise and Summit while more like 50-55 for Niwot and closer to 100 for teams like North Central, Lone Peak and Beavercreek.
Regardless of our respective opinions, it'll all be settled on the course in about a month. Anything until then is just opinion and speculation.
Thanks for info about Allie Janke running (I haven't had time to look) ... the North Central girls could be very good.
I received multiple emails from NY people questioning the speed ratings for the Saratoga girls at sectionals. Actually, the first person that questioned the high ratings was myself .. I thought they were too high, but cross checking said the numbers were correct ... As one coach noted, the ratings for the other 7 races looked normal, but the girls' Class A race looked too high. Nobody said the times of the race were incorrect, so the race was simply fast for some reason.
Overall, my race adjustment (applied to all races) was typical for a fast course at Saratoga Park ... The Class A races (for both boys and girls) were very competitive and that helps the races go fast, and it really showed in the girl's race ... The Saratoga girls average (top 5) was 17:33 .. the Saratoga Park course record for girls is 17:17, set by the 2004 team that won the first NXN (NTN) title by scoring 51 at the Portland Meadows course (Saratoga Park ran a bit slower in 2004 compared to recent years) ... the 2004 team had 4 girls qualify for Foot Locker and is probably the most talented team ever (my opinion).
At sectionals, the Saratoga girls handily beat Shenendehowa ... and Shenendehowa beat Beavercreek at the McQuaid Invite in late September (although Taylor Ewert did not run due to a college visit .. the Beavercreek ratings were 147, 135, 135, 103 and 92 at McQuaid).
From a horse handicapping perspective - Saratoga Park is the home course for the Saratoga girls .. and many teams run their best performances on their home courses ... The NY State Meet will be held next weekend at the SUNY Plattsburgh course which is similar to Saratoga Park in that both courses are relatively flat (SUNY Plattsburgh will be 3.1 miles while Saratoga Park is 3.03-3.04 miles) ... As a handicapper, I want to see how well the Saratoga girls race at the more difficult and slower Bowdoin Park course at Federations and the NXR Regional.
One more opinion out there.
https://highschoolharrier.com/post/188832666118/terrific-22-girls-rankings-november-5th-there
BMeylan wrote:
Thanks for info about Allie Janke running (I haven't had time to look) ... the North Central girls could be very good.
I received multiple emails from NY people questioning the speed ratings for the Saratoga girls at sectionals. Actually, the first person that questioned the high ratings was myself .. I thought they were too high, but cross checking said the numbers were correct ... As one coach noted, the ratings for the other 7 races looked normal, but the girls' Class A race looked too high. Nobody said the times of the race were incorrect, so the race was simply fast for some reason.
Overall, my race adjustment (applied to all races) was typical for a fast course at Saratoga Park ... The Class A races (for both boys and girls) were very competitive and that helps the races go fast, and it really showed in the girl's race ... The Saratoga girls average (top 5) was 17:33 .. the Saratoga Park course record for girls is 17:17, set by the 2004 team that won the first NXN (NTN) title by scoring 51 at the Portland Meadows course (Saratoga Park ran a bit slower in 2004 compared to recent years) ... the 2004 team had 4 girls qualify for Foot Locker and is probably the most talented team ever (my opinion).
At sectionals, the Saratoga girls handily beat Shenendehowa ... and Shenendehowa beat Beavercreek at the McQuaid Invite in late September (although Taylor Ewert did not run due to a college visit .. the Beavercreek ratings were 147, 135, 135, 103 and 92 at McQuaid).
From a horse handicapping perspective - Saratoga Park is the home course for the Saratoga girls .. and many teams run their best performances on their home courses ... The NY State Meet will be held next weekend at the SUNY Plattsburgh course which is similar to Saratoga Park in that both courses are relatively flat (SUNY Plattsburgh will be 3.1 miles while Saratoga Park is 3.03-3.04 miles) ... As a handicapper, I want to see how well the Saratoga girls race at the more difficult and slower Bowdoin Park course at Federations and the NXR Regional.
I thought the ratings would be a little lower-but only 1-2 points so not really different.
The Girls A Race was the race of the day:
-More than half of the top 15 Class A girls in the state are in section 2 so if you want to go to state meet there is no way to do anything but run your best race at sectionals. The close finish at Suburbans just reminded everyone it was run your best race or stay home time.
-Shen thought they had a chance at the upset. To be fair if they ran their best race and Saratoga faltered they might have done it. But Saratoga stepped up and only a few of their top 5 had good for them races.
-Faith DeMars really wanted a sectional title. She was going for it.
They also went out fast because well Saratoga does that. So I think it was fast because there is a cluster of talent, a lot on the line and they ran fast.
BMeylan wrote:
Oh? wrote:
North Central's Allie Janke (defending state champion, and a 10:10 3200m runner) ran her first race of the season this weekend, winning the WA 3A Eastern Regional race in 17:42. They were still on the edge of a very deep NW Top-5 all season long without her, and now with her they are a serious threat to challenge Summit for the NW title. I agree that they have a pretty big gap back to their #5, just like most of the other teams with an elite #1. Still, a #5 that has run 10:59 (3200m) and 5:05 (1600m) isn't too much of a handicap even with how much the girls teams around nation has improved over the last decade.
I think we just disagree about just how good Saratoga's race this weekend was (and how good some of the Rocky Mountain area races were this year, including but not limited to Niwot at Colorado State, Lone Peak at Utah State and Bob Firman, and maybe even Boise at the Idaho State meet - though I do think Boise is a step behind the other 8, just not far enough that a good day by them and only a 'decent' day by the others would prevent them from competing for a spot on the podium). I don't view Saratoga's Section 2 race as being quite as good as what Meylan has it, and I tend to view NXN as being a bit better than what Meylan does. By my estimate, Saratoga's #5 would have been around the #63 or #64 scorer, which is pretty similar to the #65 that I would have in this year's projected field. Meanwhile, the other #5s would be between 60-70 for Great Oak, Boise and Summit while more like 50-55 for Niwot and closer to 100 for teams like North Central, Lone Peak and Beavercreek.
Regardless of our respective opinions, it'll all be settled on the course in about a month. Anything until then is just opinion and speculation.
Thanks for info about Allie Janke running (I haven't had time to look) ... the North Central girls could be very good.
I received multiple emails from NY people questioning the speed ratings for the Saratoga girls at sectionals. Actually, the first person that questioned the high ratings was myself .. I thought they were too high, but cross checking said the numbers were correct ... As one coach noted, the ratings for the other 7 races looked normal, but the girls' Class A race looked too high. Nobody said the times of the race were incorrect, so the race was simply fast for some reason.
Overall, my race adjustment (applied to all races) was typical for a fast course at Saratoga Park ... The Class A races (for both boys and girls) were very competitive and that helps the races go fast, and it really showed in the girl's race ... The Saratoga girls average (top 5) was 17:33 .. the Saratoga Park course record for girls is 17:17, set by the 2004 team that won the first NXN (NTN) title by scoring 51 at the Portland Meadows course (Saratoga Park ran a bit slower in 2004 compared to recent years) ... the 2004 team had 4 girls qualify for Foot Locker and is probably the most talented team ever (my opinion).
At sectionals, the Saratoga girls handily beat Shenendehowa ... and Shenendehowa beat Beavercreek at the McQuaid Invite in late September (although Taylor Ewert did not run due to a college visit .. the Beavercreek ratings were 147, 135, 135, 103 and 92 at McQuaid).
From a horse handicapping perspective - Saratoga Park is the home course for the Saratoga girls .. and many teams run their best performances on their home courses ... The NY State Meet will be held next weekend at the SUNY Plattsburgh course which is similar to Saratoga Park in that both courses are relatively flat (SUNY Plattsburgh will be 3.1 miles while Saratoga Park is 3.03-3.04 miles) ... As a handicapper, I want to see how well the Saratoga girls race at the more difficult and slower Bowdoin Park course at Federations and the NXR Regional.
Meylan, thanks for the replay. To be clear, I don't think your ratings relative to your usual SSP ratings were off at all, I just think it's a slightly faster course (by maybe 10 seconds) in general, and I tend to think that 80 seconds difference on faster/shorter courses would translate to being a little more on slower/more difficult courses, like maybe closer to a 85 seconds instead.
I think this is a very strong year, which shouldn't be a surprise as in general teams are getting better almost every year over the last decade or so. I think the top 7 teams this year could have finished in the Top 3 at NXN last year, with FM and Boise also finishing in the top 5-6, if they merely match their latest major performance (State meet for the UT/CO/ID teams, Warner Pacific for Summit, Clovis for Great Oak, State Qualifier meet for Saratoga and North Central, and Manhattan for FM). Undoubtedly, at NXN, some teams will run well while others will have off days, and we probably won't have all 8-9 teams run quite at their best, while some have even better days and pull away from the pack - that's the nature of most races - but this field at the top is looking like it could potentially be quite strong.
Oh? ... I just looked at the North Central Girls and Kamiakin Boys District Meet results and rated the the races ... Wish I had more data for the evaluation, but an elite performance by several teams ... Did not realize the North Central Girls were at that level right now (ratings of 144, 139, 135, 130, 113, 102) ... Looking forward to WA States and NXR Northwest (but those were going to be the main results I wanted to see for any NXN predictions).