OK, if you think the $30.38 figure with 95.6% reporting is a poor measure then use the $36.36 record figure from Q4.
Sorry, but there are reasons the market is struggling. and is far from cheap or fairly valued.
OK, if you think the $30.38 figure with 95.6% reporting is a poor measure then use the $36.36 record figure from Q4.
Sorry, but there are reasons the market is struggling. and is far from cheap or fairly valued.
Wouldn’t the latest reported earnings be from the current quarter?
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
heh. The algos are not pleased. Global stocks down almost a percent on that news. This sounds like a rare example of 'bad news actually being bad news.' Meaning that the European and Chinese slowdowns are more serious than the market thinks. And that loose money is needed just to hold the line, not to goose the financial markets.
SPX right on the 200 day. I'm liking more and more the idea of hiding out in short term high yield bonds for a while...stocks just soared and fundies don't look great. Getting 5% isn't too bad by my book for that amount of risk.
This market seriously exists just to prove us wrong. 10 year T notes have taken a beating and HYG is down right now although I don't follow that ETF closely. Also word on the street is that Trump is explicitly trying to use a deal, any deal at all, with China as a re-election bid since he hopes it'll pump the market. We pretty much already knew this but now it's officially out in the open. IMO the market has priced in the best case scenario trade deal, something like China completely capitulating (which is super unlikely).
Not sure what you mean - intermediate treasuries are priced near their highs...yields down but that goes with my argument, that investors are expecting subdued economic growth. High yield is hanging in there, barely down. That's the genesis of my thesis - that economic growth will not be great...but it won't be terrible either, so high yield should give me a 5% coupon and stocks won't go much of anywhere - continuing their 1.5 year trading range.
Agreed on china - the market is assuming the best for the china deal. That could blow up.
wondering wrote:
Wouldn’t the latest reported earnings be from the current quarter?
That is what I was using, but the dude wants me to use last quarter.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sorry, but there are reasons the market is struggling. and is far from cheap or fairly valued.
Actually, on average stocks are undervalued.
https://www.morningstar.com/tools/market-fair-value-graph.htmlGhost of Igloi wrote:
S&P 500 PE (GAAP) for the most recent completed quarter Q3 2018 was 22.35. Using the current Q4 estimated EPS of $30.38 and the current 2,775 S&P 500 results in a current index PE of 22.84. So although the index price has fallen the EPS has declined at a faster rate.
Of course it will all be better tomorrow, yes just a day away.
I’m curious as to how you calculated that 22.84 figure.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
This market seriously exists just to prove us wrong. 10 year T notes have taken a beating and HYG is down right now although I don't follow that ETF closely. Also word on the street is that Trump is explicitly trying to use a deal, any deal at all, with China as a re-election bid since he hopes it'll pump the market. We pretty much already knew this but now it's officially out in the open. IMO the market has priced in the best case scenario trade deal, something like China completely capitulating (which is super unlikely).
Not sure what you mean - intermediate treasuries are priced near their highs...yields down but that goes with my argument, that investors are expecting subdued economic growth. High yield is hanging in there, barely down. That's the genesis of my thesis - that economic growth will not be great...but it won't be terrible either, so high yield should give me a 5% coupon and stocks won't go much of anywhere - continuing their 1.5 year trading range.
Agreed on china - the market is assuming the best for the china deal. That could blow up.
lol ok well when I zoomed out and looked at the 1 month chart I see that was very wrong about 10 year yields. Us day traders prefer the 1 minute chart (15 minute chart at the most). High yield bonds should be a good bet unless the Fed raises the rate again. I'm still betting on gold personally. All the money printing in the US and EU + Brexit means currencies are probably going to be unattractive
Also what happened in the first half of 2016 that caused bonds yields to absolutely crater?
Racket wrote:
Also what happened in the first half of 2016 that caused bonds yields to absolutely crater?
Not sure anyone would ever want bonds unless he or she is in their later years. Peter Lynch preached that you have to be in equities. Historical returns - 11% (with dividends reinvested) versus 4%. To double your portfolio at those returns equities would double in 6 years and bonds in 18 years.
wondering wrote:
Wouldn’t the latest reported earnings be from the current quarter?
Current price/current EPS annualized.
Racket wrote:
Also what happened in the first half of 2016 that caused bonds yields to absolutely crater?
ECB QE policies of extended to purchase of corporates. US 10 Year followed suit down to historic low yield of 1.37% by July 2017.
^July 2016 I meant above^
Sally Vix wrote:
Racket wrote:
Also what happened in the first half of 2016 that caused bonds yields to absolutely crater?
Not sure anyone would ever want bonds unless he or she is in their later years. Peter Lynch preached that you have to be in equities. Historical returns - 11% (with dividends reinvested) versus 4%. To double your portfolio at those returns equities would double in 6 years and bonds in 18 years.
Did you eat paint chips as a kid? Live under power lines perhaps?
Paint chips with lots of lead. He is hoping for double the 5.5% return on equities over the past 20 years. Sally knows HE will live another 130 years. The math is guaranteed to work out by then.
Yutre wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
S&P 500 PE (GAAP) for the most recent completed quarter Q3 2018 was 22.35. Using the current Q4 estimated EPS of $30.38 and the current 2,775 S&P 500 results in a current index PE of 22.84. So although the index price has fallen the EPS has declined at a faster rate.
Of course it will all be better tomorrow, yes just a day away.
I’m curious as to how you calculated that 22.84 figure.
Bumping
Yutre wrote:
Yutre wrote:
I’m curious as to how you calculated that 22.84 figure.
Bumping
Above current price/current EPS annualized
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yutre wrote:
Bumping
Above current price/current EPS annualized
So you don’t account for the weighting or the index divisor?
Sally Vix wrote:
Racket wrote:
Also what happened in the first half of 2016 that caused bonds yields to absolutely crater?
Not sure anyone would ever want bonds unless he or she is in their later years. Peter Lynch preached that you have to be in equities. Historical returns - 11% (with dividends reinvested) versus 4%. To double your portfolio at those returns equities would double in 6 years and bonds in 18 years.
Depends what 'later years' means, but generally the only people with money are in their later years. But in general, the reason to own bonds is that life happens. All at once, sometimes. Say 2008. The stock market falls 50%, your house 25%, you lose your job. You want to start selling stocks when they are cut in half?
Bonds are stores of value - ways to keep money safe. Sometimes, like in 1980-2014 you'll make decent money. Aren't bond returns ahead of bond returns for some recent 30 year period?
And bonds pay interest for people to live on.
Anyway, you don't expect to make much money in bonds, no.
Yutre wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Above current price/current EPS annualized
So you don’t account for the weighting or the index divisor?
Find someone else to play games with.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yutre wrote:
So you don’t account for the weighting or the index divisor?
Find someone else to play games with.
So you don’t take them into account. Don’t you think that invalidates your calculation?