Sally Vx wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I read Taleb’s anti-fragile theory several years ago. My interpretation you weight heavy to T-Bills with a small allocation to out of consensus bets. For me my that is anything that hasn’t worked this cycle: market short, managed futures, etc. I would do gold but invested there years ago. I was going to do oil back in 2016, but was looking to go lower which it did not. One could do individual securities but I prefer macro bets with the current distortion to markets.
Ghost of Igloi - CDs have returned inflation-adjusted losses for 9 of the last 10 years. You really think CDs are a good investment? They are a terrible investment. Contrast that with the stock market which has done quite well, even inflation-adjusted, over the same time.
Over the past year my portfolio has dramatically outperformed the market. I plan to stick with it thru the 50% drawdown that is coming, then shift the allocation toward stocks.