2019 National XC rankings/predictions

Nynyer wrote:

You do realize they have had this type of make up for their team for 10 years and none of those young teams have developed into contenders, right?

They also get a tremendous boost to speed ratings racing in NY versus other areas of the country, which shows up heavily when they have to race real teams at NXN. Take 8 points off of each of their speed ratings to compare to the CO state meet today.

You aren’t completely wrong although I think that the Spa Park course is sometimes undervalued just because their average runner from Suburban Council and Section 2 Championships is faster than the typical average runner at the league or sectional level. You also rarely see any difference between male and female ratings which Mr. Meylan often gives on other courses.

It may not matter but 4 out 7 of Saratoga’s NXN team ran their season best ratings at NXN. Kelsey Chmiel earned a 162 which was her 3rd best rating (higher at Oatlands and NYPHSAA) but she was ahead of every single non NYer in the race when she finished 2nd to Tuohy. They also finished 6th which was better than their anticipated 9th place based on those overinflated NY speed ratings.

Niwot is a lot better this year than they were last year. So maybe all those other teams have also improved but I think they will be scary. 5 in the T13 seems unprecedented.

Going with dark horse. Cruz Culpepper gets pulled along, peaks at right time, and wins sprint to finish over Cole and Nico.

Saville High School girls will dominate NXN this year

Tman46 wrote:

Going with dark horse. Cruz Culpepper gets pulled along, peaks at right time, and wins sprint to finish over Cole and Nico.

Stop it.

Tman46 wrote:

Going with dark horse. Cruz Culpepper gets pulled along, peaks at right time, and wins sprint to finish over Cole and Nico.

I’m not even sure that Cruz thinks he can beat those guys. In one of his post race interviews with a local paper, they asked him about breaking Sprout’s 4A state record (which Sprout set as a sophomore 2 years ago when Valor Christian was 2A) and Cruz mentioned that he hoped he had the chance to bear Sprout a couple times “in track” this spring. Reading between the lines seemed like he was acknowledging that Sprout was in another league in the longer stuff.

Cruz has all the potential in the world, but has only been putting in a good amount of miles for about a year, and he’s naturally more speed-oriented than Sprout. He has only had XC race where he was within shouting distance of Sprout (14:43 at Desert Twilight last year). He was 32 seconds behind Sprout and Young at Arcadia in the spring. Their catch weight is the 1600/mile, Sprout only has a small edge there, and Cruz would beat him handily in the 800.

He has clear speed and clear talent, so crazier things have happened, but I think 5th-10th, 20 or so seconds back is the more likely result for Cruz at NXN this year. Even if he could hang in there, Daschbach is just as fast at Cruz and had shown he has significantly more endurance (8:50 at Arcadia, his XC races this year), so I think he’d be the guy to outkick everyone.

Or, it is just that Culpepper plans to go to FLN once again while he knows that Sprout is headed to NXN - meaning they won't ever meet in XC.

Could be, although the word all year has been that Culpepper intends to go to NXN. He (and Niwot generally) were targeting NXN last year, but he was sick for NXN, and my understanding was that he only ran FLMW as a backup due to his illness. Not sure if he wasn't recovered for FLMW or just had a bad race to get 25th. His teammate, Ares Reading, qualified for both NXN and FLN and did pretty well at both. Given the Niwot girls are favored to qualify for NXN and the boys have a decent shot shot, I would be surprised if he didn't race NXRSW.

Cre wrote:

Niwot is a lot better this year than they were last year. So maybe all those other teams have also improved but I think they will be scary. 5 in the T13 seems unprecedented.

I agree with you, Niwot (and Colorado in general) is being a little underrated around here.

IMO, if you put those 6 teams in the same field, it would come out to something along the lines of: Niwot 65, Fayetteville-Manlius 70, Summit/Great Oak/Beavercreek 80, Saratoga 95

Lone Peak UT is probably in with the Summit/GO/Beavercreek group, and Buchanan CA is probably alongside Saratoga.

Niwot is IMO the #1 team in the country right now. Summit gets some credit for being the defending Champs, and Fayetteville-Manlius gets some credit for being the powerhouse they've been over the last 13 years, but... this season, I think Niwot has the edge.

Creaky Bones wrote:

Could be, although the word all year has been that Culpepper intends to go to NXN. He (and Niwot generally) were targeting NXN last year, but he was sick for NXN, and my understanding was that he only ran FLMW as a backup due to his illness. Not sure if he wasn't recovered for FLMW or just had a bad race to get 25th. His teammate, Ares Reading, qualified for both NXN and FLN and did pretty well at both. Given the Niwot girls are favored to qualify for NXN and the boys have a decent shot shot, I would be surprised if he didn't race NXRSW.

Meant to say he was sick for NXR. Didn't qualify for NXN or FLN last year. Admittedly not coaching anymore and not "in the know" but that was the rumor that I heard speaking with old friends that still coach in the area.

Interesting. I hope he does run NXN so the best can race against the best. Once again, his team is pretty good and could use his help at NXR for a chance to make it to nationals.

FWIW, just found this interview of Cruz after state this year:

https://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=videos&video_id=285473-Cruz-Culpepper-1st-Place-Boys-4A-Final-Colorado-CHSAA-Cross-State-Championships-2019

The interviewer does his best to answer for Cruz rather than letting Cruz answer questions, but Cruz says he's running NXR. Possible that the CHSAA reporter misreported the quote about beating Sprout "in track."

CBA TAKES IT TO THE HOUSE BOYz.

Nobody getting close.

Thanks for posting the video. Sounds like he ran pretty contained with some left in the tank at state. Full disclosure... I went to high school with, and ran high school track and cross-country with, Cruz's Father, Alan, so pulling for Cruz a bit. Know Cole and Nico are tall orders in cross.

Creaky Bones wrote:

Corner Canyon looks really strong. Went 2-3-4-5-8 today at the Utah 6A state meet. If Easton Allred rounds into form as a top-5 guy at NXN, they could be pretty dangerous. I think Mark Boyle has also been a bit sick, but still managed to finish 3rd today (was 2nd last year).

They may be a podium team even with Allred at 90%. I doubt he can get back to the level he was at last year if it's true that he's only able to run 5-10 miles a week, but they have a lot of time, so he may be able to get close.

Dyestat has Corner Canyon ranked #3 already

Tman46 wrote:

Thanks for posting the video. Sounds like he ran pretty contained with some left in the tank at state. Full disclosure... I went to high school with, and ran high school track and cross-country with, Cruz's Father, Alan, so pulling for Cruz a bit. Know Cole and Nico are tall orders in cross.

Full disclosure, I like to name-drop even when it has nothing to add to the conversation.

Tman46 wrote:

Thanks for posting the video. Sounds like he ran pretty contained with some left in the tank at state. Full disclosure... I went to high school with, and ran high school track and cross-country with, Cruz's Father, Alan, so pulling for Cruz a bit. Know Cole and Nico are tall orders in cross.

Cool. Hope he has a good race. I hope we either get a race for the ages from one or two of the big 3 (Young, Sprout, Daschbach) or I hope that some guys like Strangio and Culpepper and Green up their game and there are a lot of guys in it like last year.

Creaky Bones wrote:

Cool. Hope he has a good race. I hope we either get a race for the ages from one or two of the big 3 (Young, Sprout, Daschbach) or I hope that some guys like Strangio and Culpepper and Green up their game and there are a lot of guys in it like last year.

I bet there will still be a bit of a pack at 2 miles, but I would expect Sprout to make the move around 3.5-4K like Easton Allred did last year. 14:45 or better to win.

fastTuohy wrote:

Creaky Bones wrote:

Cool. Hope he has a good race. I hope we either get a race for the ages from one or two of the big 3 (Young, Sprout, Daschbach) or I hope that some guys like Strangio and Culpepper and Green up their game and there are a lot of guys in it like last year.

I bet there will still be a bit of a pack at 2 miles, but I would expect Sprout to make the move around 3.5-4K like Easton Allred did last year. 14:45 or better to win.

I agree. He will try to break free, and only Young will go with them. Daschbach will track them and may catch them both in the last 400.