Idaho XC 2025

Only rocky boys have been speed rated so far but it’s been:

Tuft 178/182

Maybury 166/167

Davis 166/169

Kurtz 164/168

Locher 159/166

Bailey 152/157

Clark 152/157

The general threshold to make nxn in the past is a 171/172 average, so they seem to be on track, but as has been pointed out, Rocky’s boys don’t aim to peak near as much as other teams so expect a 1-2 point gain.

How does one go about creating a speed rating for a course?

Here is a brief step-by-step explanation of how a speed rating is made:
(1) Get the results of a cross country invitational (the actual race times), as deep as possible ... (if enough sequential race times are not available, it may be impossible to make a speed rating for that race).
(2) Use the actual race times to determine how fast or how slow the race was compared to a "standard race" ... For example, I might determine the race was 15 seconds slower or 15 seconds faster than a standard race ... I can use severaldifferent statistically methods to determine how fast or how slow the race was ... this number of seconds is the race correction.
Updated definition of a Standard race ... I have a library of "standard races" ... Usually, my first choice is to compare the race being evaluated to the same race from the previous years (I have already determined their relative speed) ... Other standard races for comparison include any races of similar overall quality ... I typically use multiple races for the comparison.
(3) Whenever possible, derive a separate race correction based solely on the individual runners in the race ... I use my individual runner databases to make statistical comparisons between their previous speed ratings and the final times of current race ... This yields a second race correction to compare to the standard race correction from above ... usually they are similar ... I derive a final race correctionbased on both.
(4) Add or subtract the final race correction number from the actual race times ... for example, if the race correction number is +15 seconds (meaning the race was 15 seconds slower on average than the standard race), I then subtract 15 seconds from all the actual race times to get "corrected" race times ... (as an example, if the actual race time was 20:00.0, the corrected race time would be 19:45.0).
(5) I could just post the corrected race times ... but, for comparison purposes, I find it easier to convert the corrected race time to a simple number (a speed rating) ...
Speed Rating = (1560 - (actual race time in seconds) - (course correction factor)) / 3
where 1560 is the number of seconds in 26 minutes ... 26 minutes is used because it corresponds to zero in the standard race ... the course correction factor is how fast or slow (in seconds) a race course is in relation to a standard course ... the entire expression is divided by 3 because I decided one point equals three seconds in this method.
Bottom-Line ... a speed rating is just a corrected race time (that's all) ... it allows speed comparison of any race to another race ... it's nothing more than that!

Timberlake Farragut

I'm a little surprised there's not more talk about the Cardinal Classic. Boise struggled pretty badly on the guys side. I don't think it's really indicative of who they are as a team, but Rigby looked pretty good (the 18:05 for 5th is a huge concern).

I don't think that Rigby and Highland are as far back as people assume. The treasure valley schools have been talked about so much that it got missed that these are also very good teams.

It’s only like 3 or 4 of us talking in circles on here so not surprising that Cardinal Classic hasn’t been mentioned, it just takes one of the few people that check these boards consistently to finally get bored and mention it.

Boys 6A could be 7-8 teams deep with solid squads this year!

I think it's more like 7-8 people with 3-4 consistent, but I get your point. Even then, Boise is such a big name that you would think it would get posted.

CDA, Rocky, Boise, Eagle, Rigby, Highland, Centennial seem to be the main ones at this point. Mountain View, Meridian, or Timberline could develop into something nice. It's a shame Maybury left Owyhee... they could be in that same mix with him on their roster. You could probably say the same thing for Skyview in 5A if Kent Bailey went there as well. Century, Skyline, Sandpoint, BK, and Preston are all legit. I think Skyview would likely have enough of a jump that they would be in contention for a trophy.

I think there will be 8 teams with legitimate arguments to be in the championship section at NXR NW once you include Skyline. Sandpoint, Mountain View, Meridian, Timberline, BK are all kind of in that next group that could be competing at the top of the open sections.

Maybe I’m crazy, but CDA didn’t look overly impressive at Timberlake Farragut at a glance. Granted it’s an opener, but how do these times stack up to pasts years?

Im at work right now so can’t dive into it right now

2025: 1:21:05 team time, 1:12 spread
2024: 1:19:49, 1:39 spread
2023: 1:20:31, :42 spread
2022: 1:23:29, 1:19 spread

2024 is skewed super heavily by the Cervi-Skinner brothers running so fast.

2024 vs 2025 for spots 2-7:
2025: 1:39:39
2024: 1:38:28

Spots 3-7
2025: 1:23:35
2024: 1:23:02

FWIW, last year's speed ratings would yield 181, 172, 167, 166, 157, 156, 146.

Some transitive comparisons... Charlie Spiers got 6th here and barely beat Mitchell Rietze. He beat Chase Dawson by 44 seconds 2 weeks ago. Chase Dawson beat Landon Hillam by 14 seconds earlier this year. Landon Hillam got 3rd at Caldwell Twilight in 15:48.

What I'm getting at above is that who even knows. The speed ratings don't mean much right now. It was an okay showing, they dominated, there's no reason to put much stock into any results until they race at Woodbridge.

Must be tough without the CS brothers this year

I wouldnt read too deeply into the results. It was hot and very very smokey due to a fire just north of Spokane.