Official Idaho HS XC 2024 Thread

Using a mix of PR’s, placement at big meets, and placement at the district meet, the District III team would probably be something like:

Tuft- no explanation needed
Vandahlen- 15:21, sub 16 twice in Idaho.
Porter- 2nd fastest returning boy at Firman, sub 16 once in Idaho
Culpepper- 2nd returner from district meet
Donahue- 3rd returner
Maybury- 4th returner, 3rd fastest returning boy on Firman
Kurtz- sub 16 in Idaho once, 16:12 at Firman.

Lots of other guys could be on there. Bruce, Riley, McGee, Jensen, etc. I just tried to go best mix of best race, marks in Idaho, and returning meet at district understanding some guys had bad days.

I don’t think that team beats CDA next year, though.

Let's pump the brakes a little on CDA.

We can speculate all we want, but if past threads on this site are any indication of the future success of Letsrun predictions, then we really have no clue what things are going to look like next year, let alone two years from now.

That being said, I think we are really not talking about the girls enough here. Boise has gotten a really good resume without anyone on here noticing, having gotten 2nd at Firman and beating Lincoln (preseason #1 or #2) on their home course.

Rocky has beaten Boise at districts. 3rd at Firman is a solid result as well. Timberline and Capital have both been right around Boise and Rocky in multiple races.

The Idaho girls might actually be the most stacked state in the Northwest for the first time ever, especially since Lincoln and Jesuit have both looked solid but nothing more than expected.

Dyestat actually ranked Boise, Timberline and Capital 1st, 3rd, and 5th in the region respectively. I don't know if we've ever had 3 (really 4 with Rocky) girls teams with legit top 5 chances at NXR.

Paisley Taylor is a serious contender to podium as an individual. Orme and Heemeyer have been very close to each other all season, and Johnson has been able to mix is up with them on occasion. All of those 3 have top 10 potential and should be dreaming about snagging an individual berth to NXN.

Livingston, Richardson, Kunkel, Misner, and a couple others have all region aspirations.

THIS IS CRAZY!

Yes, girls district III is legitimately insane. There are a lot of good showings that get lost in all of the noise around the boys.

The top 4 teams are heads and shoulders above the rest of the state. Mountain View and Eagle are good girls teams that in a lot of years would be competitive for a trophy, and they aren't even close this year and don't appear to have any shot of getting a trophy.

The NW might be lacking in other states as far as girls teams go, but the individuals are very deep. I think we will be less competitive on an individual basis but I wouldn't be shocked to see Idaho grab both auto spots on the girls and get an at-large as well.

CDA beats Rocky 40-51

Who are the confirmed college commitments at this point?

Stadt - OSU (is it safe after the new roster limits?)

Sheesh - BSU

Who else is confirmed?

Hats off to both teams. Even with the exact same performances as today but plugged into NXR, CDA should repeat as team champions and Rocky gets third.

Boise could be 5th or 6th, and Mountain View gets to see how far into the top 10 they can be.

Idaho has really arrived on the distance scene...

Idaho girls will have 3 teams in the top 6 at NXR, and the individuals will have multiple in the top 20 at NXR.

For the boys, the 3rd place finisher at Woodbridge was only able to get 3rd in the state meet, despite running a time that most years gets you the 1st or 2nd individual berth to NXN. The boys teams will place 2 in the top 4, with 4 or maybe even 5 in the top 10.

Highland could be top 10 as well.

Taylor committed to Utah Valley earlier this season I believe? Any word on the Servi-Skinner brothers or Lucas?

This article in the CDA Press says they have official visits to Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Montana State, and Notre Dame as well as unofficial visits to Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, and Santa Clara.

cdapress.com

PREP CROSS COUNTRY: Brothers' bond ... Identical twins Max and Zack Cervi-Skinner have Viking boys seeking second straight state title while also chasing Division I dreams.

None

“It’s meant a lot to me, and always has,” Zack Cervi-Skinner said. “He’s a built-in training partner and best friend. We’re competitive with each other, but it’s made us better at the same time. We’re always chasing after eac...

Link:cdapress.com/news/2024/nov/01/prep-cro...

Cervi Skinners are catholic - so ND is a strong consideration.

If not that, I would guess Washington followed by Gonzaga (Pat Tyson is all over these kids)

Washington has the best program in the west. They produce the best results with the talent that they have. Powell is underrated as a coach. They are a recruiting force with Tyrone Gorze and Nathan Neil added in the last two years. They will most certainly get Owen Powell in the 2025 class.

Oregon, the sexy choice, has underperformed vastly and have not developed their athletes since Teare and Hocker have left. Too much on the table for Jerry.

Seattle is a 50 minute flight from Spokane. I think the twins end up at UW.

Hail Mary performance by the Rocky girls... They've run on several very fast and even short courses this year, but despite that, all 5 of their scorers managed to PR on the Eagle Island course.

Plugging those times into Firman this year, they would have scored 61, and that's before taking out individuals, AND keeping in the original Rocky squad as another team.

If we take the results from NXR NW last year, take out the unattached runner, and take out the 2023 Rocky squad, then re-score it, we get:

Rocky - 68

Lincoln - 113

Jesuit -136

Top returning speed ratings:

CDA: 183, 171, 171, 170, 167 = 172 average

Rocky: 176, 170, 160, 158, 156 = 164 average

Eagle: 172, 170, 162, 158, 154 = 163.2 average

Mt View: 175, 165, 164, 146, 142 = 158.4 average

Boise: 166, 162, 158, 149, 145 = 156 average

I might have missed some better marks, but this seems like it’s about right for the teams that look like they return the most.

On another thread:

”The Rocky top boys did 45-55 MPW during the summer, and are doing 35-45 MPW during the season.

Coeur D'Alene's top boys did 80+ MPW during the summer, and 50-60 in season.”

Not sure how accurate that is, but I would be curious if anyone had insight into the two programs. Also curious about anything anyone knows about the top boys at Boise, Centennial, Eagle, Highland, Meridian, Mountain View, Rigby and Timberline.

Not sure about the Rocky boys. But the CDA is more or less true. Their top guys were getting into the upper 70s, lower 80s during the summer.

Rocky alumni here.

Seems to be accurate enough. I was in the varsity 7, and the most mileage I hit during the off season was 53. In season was around 42-46, depending on whether we raced or not that week, but I don't recall ever hitting 50+ during the season.

Jeff is a big believer in steady long term progression.

Typically freshman do not buy in to the running, and end up with something like 10 mpw during the off season then 15-20 during the season. Freshman who show up fit or buy in, or both, usually end up being really key to the team, as they get 4 years of pure development (Lucas, Tuft, Wigod, Heemeyer, Pollock, ect). Having an older sibling on the team helps a lot too, as is the case for most of those mentioned above.

Either sophomore or junior year, you will start to see guys "buy in". Sophomores in my experience tend to hit the same mileage both in season and out of season, typically 30-35, maybe 40 once or twice a season.

Juniors progress slightly from where they were. For some who didn't buy in as a sophomore, they are running 25-35 as a Junior then similar as a senior, but the top Juniors will run 40-45 out of season, maybe aiming for a single 50 mile week. In season it will be pretty consistent 40's, maybe like 42 or 43 if there is no race.

Seniors for the top guys run 45-50 during the off season. Once or twice they might plan to hit like 52-56, but never really much higher, and rarely with back to back weeks.

For reference, I know of only 2 guys who ever touched a 60 mile week for XC.

In season it's pretty much all the same for Juniors and Seniors, again, consistent 40 or so, maybe up to 45 if there is no race. With the training Jeff gives, and the fact that the team tends to talk for 30+ minutes a day, it's hard to get more than 40 mile weeks consistently.

Sounds about right from what I've seen on Strava for the Rocky guys. Pretty impressive that they are as competitive as they are with that kind of mileage vs CDA.

What can you say about what the Rocky girls are doing? Also I'd love to hear some insight as to what you guys talk about for that much time each day.

Athletes and parents of other programs - I'd like to hear about your girl's mileage as well.

It would be interesting to see if the Rocky girls are "undertraining" in relation to other top girls schools like Capital and Boise, as the Rocky guys are in relation to CDA.

A true Rocky alum would refer to him as “Howie” not Jeff. I think this is an imposter.

The above post isn't accurate to waht today is.

1. The other thread highlights that their #9 or #10 who is a sophomore is running 40 mile weeks consistently.

2. Goggins and Clark hit 50+ multiple times in season.

3. Gabriel Heule was mid 40's for most of the season with two 60 mile weeks in season. 13 miles more than the peak that Jack Davis (a sophomore) hit in season and about 7 miles per week higher on an average week than what Davis was running, which isn't crazy considering Rocky raced almost every week and CDA raced sparingly.

Besides, competitive needs to be defined. CDA had boys that had never run a varsity race this year finish 13th, 14th and 28th at the state meet. These boys were either low to mid 17 minute runners last year or were middle schoolers last year. Rocky was a senior laden boys team. I think the question should be more can Rocky remain competitive against CDA than how are they competitive. They answer to the second question is they were much older.

I would guess workout volumes are the same, but the remaining 80% of the runs are about 25% slower, so if senior boys are hitting 50, then older girls should hit 36-40 miles on bigger weeks (8-10 miles at intensity, 28-30 miles easy) and maybe 32-35 on normal weeks.

I'm guessing that's the same for 80% of the top end kids. Boys will pretty consistently be 40-45 miles as a soph, 45-50 as a junior, 50-55 as a senior.

Jeff Howard is no doubt a good coach, but the boys you listed had middle school marks of:

Tuft: 5:06, 3rd at NXR NW middle school race, I believe the middle school cross champ
Gavin Pollock: 4:57, 2nd at Firman middle school race, middle school champ
Zac Pollock: 5:00, 3rd at middle school cross champ
Wigod: 5:13 as a 6th grader, 5th at middle school cross champ as 7th grader, 10th as a 8th grader
Heemeyer: 5:05, 2nd at middle school cross champs as a 7th grader, 12th at Firman as a 8th grader

All of those guys were very promising middle schoolers. Kurtz was a 5:04 8th grader, Anson was a 4:48 8th grader, Michael Majors was a 5:02 8th grader, Jack Davis was a 5:06 8th grader, Ken Uechi was a 5:04 8th grader... and those are all just from the middle school champs race, which is the only one on athletic.net. Rocky has had a really incredible pipeline from their middle schools. It looks like they will get only maybe one kid matriculating in that was a top 10 kid at middle school champs this year but they have been getting 2-3 every year for years.

Just staying healthy with that kind of obvious talent is going to result in fast kids as seniors.