i have a friend who didn't run in college. He wasn't good enough. He came from a small HS that I think didn't even have a XC team. He taught himself how to train and worked his way up to about 15:55 for 5k when he was 22-23. And he was working pretty hard at it.
After college was over (in Graduate School actually) something snapped in him and he just got his shit together and WILL NOT BE STOPPED! He runs 12-14 times a week and about 110-120 pretty regularly (averaged 97 a week in 2004). He got down to 15:03 and 32:06 (bad race) last year just before his buildup to a fairly major March marathon.
He had done 1 or 2 marathons before but they had gone badly. this time it went pretty well and he went out around 5:35-40 for 20 miles and then slipped a little. To his surprise (two guys had been in front of him and they dropped out or something) he ended up winning it in 2:31:XX. He struggled mightily in the last mile, but had been easily on 2:28:XX pace until the last 2 miles.
He will be back to try again.
His long-term goal is to run as fast as he can at distances from 1 mile to the marathon, and hopefully qualifying for the OT.
My point is that here is a HS 10:20 two-miler who had no aspirations at first for college running (because he had no illusions either!) and then he gets into it more and does a lot of racing from 5k to 10 miles and becomes committed to it. THEN HE REALLY gets into it and trains like a pro and
takes about A MINUTE off his 5k alone and wins a marathon.
He isn't staying in the sport because HE CAN get into the OT marathon. He isn't quitting the sport because he is 10 minutes from qualifying right now. He is running because he likes it and even though he may not have 2:15 talent, he continues to run (at age 26) with a wife, a dog, and a house, and a full-time job. He continues to run because he likes running and he likes getting better and he likes winning races, even if they aren't huge ones. He also likes finishing high at the bigger, faster races.
If he determined that he had no chance at 2:22 and they were not going to slow the standard, he wouldn't get pissed and say someone is keeping him out of something that he needs to keep running. He would likely accept that nature made him a 2:23+ marathoner and that he had tried his best to accomplish something that he wan't going to be able to do.
If a male has run 24:30 for 8km or 31:00 for 10km, and they are not getting slower each year because of age, then they have shot at a 2:22 marathon. This is just a fact.
I doubt that many 32:00 10k'ers think that they would stay in the sport and train for a 2:29 marathon just for a chance to be pack fodder in an Olympic Trials. They may stay in it and train for many other reasons (like my friend), but the OT's are not enough.
Some of you need to realize that if someone has run since age 14 and by the 5th year of college they have run 15:20/32:00 on the track then they are not likely to ever run fast enough to make a dent at the National Class level. And if you have run for the same period and you have reached 14:00/29:00 then running a 2:22 marathon is a walk in the park. Some of you seem to be suggesting that lowering the standard to a regional-class level would bring these All-American level distance runners who would otherwise quit the sport (since they can't make a living off of running at that level) to stay in it and pursue the marathon. It won't.
They can't make a living off of 2:20 marathoning either and that is as far as they will likely go. I don't see how slowing the standard will affect any of this. The slower guys (if they WERE attracted to keeping running) would not have any affect on the depth of marathoning at the National class level and the faster guys would not have the way paved for them to get faster any more or less. As has been pointed out ad infinitum, these guys have no trouble qualifying for the OT and there is no shortage of fast marathons for them to continue to get better.