Molly Seidel Instagram Post

Except there is about 130,000,000 instagram accounts in the US and they aren’t all from unique users.  Want to try again or just admit that you don’t know how statistics and sampling work?

Even if you were right, quibbling over 1/1500 vs 1/10000  is stupid.  The guy got well within an order of magnitude either way and his larger point is true.  Outside of this website, Molly Seidel is at best a minor curiosity.  

AP5000 wrote:

successful refugee wrote:

330,000,000 / 209,000 = 1500

People usually “know of” someone when they follow them on Instagram. Obviously I am assuming a vast majority of here followers are from the US … which seems reasonable.

Come on this ain’t that hard.

I bet 90% of these are just the random click to follow and have no idea who she is.

Have you ever used Instagram? Honest question.

You are getting lit up in this thread but more and more it seems like you deserve it.

Fair enough, carry on.  Trolling on LR is god’s work after all.

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

Dude, she posted it on her public forum for the specific reason of drawing attention to herself. And now you are comparing that to repeating something someone said to another person? Those are both private conversations as it is.

So when comedians share funny quips about nonsense that happened to the them in the grocery store… that’s bad?

I am truly trying to understand the pearl clutching here. The convo was anonymized. No privacy violated.

It struck a chord with many people (see: this thread). What’s the big deal? are people not allowed to share things that happened in their life that they found funny, interesting, exemplary, etc.

You are so cute defending these poor innocent girls. You must be the real life of the party!

Like I said, your analogy was absurd...comparing a conversation between two individuals being even remotely similar. Now you are switching it to a comedian with an audience...that was very convenient.

llort_vbo wrote:

Except there is about 130,000,000 instagram accounts in the US and they aren’t all from unique users.  Want to try again or just admit that you don’t know how statistics and sampling work? Even if you were right, quibbling over 1/1500 vs 1/10000  is stupid.  The guy got well within an order of magnitude either way and his larger point is true.  Outside of this website, Molly Seidel is at best a minor curiosity.  

Lol what. You realize that just makes it more likely that more people know here. 1 in 600 US Instagram accounts followers her! Even more if you factor in redundancy and then… surely you realize that a large fraction of people who know of her do not follow her on Instagram.

I think he might be off by closer to two orders of magnitude :) !

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I bet 90% of these are just the random click to follow and have no idea who she is.

Have you ever used Instagram? Honest question.

You are getting lit up in this thread but more and more it seems like you deserve it.

God, no. I have self respect and don't have an unquenchable thirst for publicity. I don't live in a "don't forget about me today" world like you clearly do. Lit up? Don't be ridiculous. Did you not get enough "likes" today?

Dude Instagram is international and you did math based on the TOTAL US population. Your math is absurd. I know you really thought you had a real zinger there.

AP5000 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

So when comedians share funny quips about nonsense that happened to the them in the grocery store… that’s bad?

I am truly trying to understand the pearl clutching here. The convo was anonymized. No privacy violated.

It struck a chord with many people (see: this thread). What’s the big deal? are people not allowed to share things that happened in their life that they found funny, interesting, exemplary, etc.

You are so cute defending these poor innocent girls. You must be the real life of the party!

Like I said, your analogy was absurd...comparing a conversation between two individuals being even remotely similar. Now you are switching it to a comedian with an audience...that was very convenient.

Molly can fend for herself. I’m just in it for that small moment of self awareness youll show. Makes me smile!

Of course I changed my analogy. I’m trying to find where you draw the line with “sharing private conversations” or do you only hold marathoners to this standard?

2600 bro wrote:

llort_vbo wrote:

Except there is about 130,000,000 instagram accounts in the US and they aren’t all from unique users.  Want to try again or just admit that you don’t know how statistics and sampling work? Even if you were right, quibbling over 1/1500 vs 1/10000  is stupid.  The guy got well within an order of magnitude either way and his larger point is true.  Outside of this website, Molly Seidel is at best a minor curiosity.  

Lol what. You realize that just makes it more likely that more people know here. 1 in 600 US Instagram accounts followers her! Even more if you factor in redundancy and then… surely you realize that a large fraction of people who know of her do not follow her on Instagram.

I think he might be off by closer to two orders of magnitude :) !

I think you need to take a statistics class. It doesn't mean that all all. It means fewer people have a medium for knowing who she is. This means fewer people know her. You are just reducing the denominator to make your ratio larger. Come on man.

AP5000 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Have you ever used Instagram? Honest question.

You are getting lit up in this thread but more and more it seems like you deserve it.

God, no. I have self respect and don't have an unquenchable thirst for publicity. I don't live in a "don't forget about me today" world like you clearly do. Lit up? Don't be ridiculous. Did you not get enough "likes" today?

Dude Instagram is international and you did math based on the TOTAL US population. Your math is absurd. I know you really thought you had a real zinger there.

God I thought innumeracy was confined to the COVID threads.

What fraction of her Instagram followers are international? Maybe 5% 10%? Scale my numbers accordingly. Not a big deal. The number of people that know her but don’t have Instagram far outweigh this.

Don’t get caught in the weeds look at the big picture here.

You said less than 1 in 10000 know her. Getting hard to defend if ~ 1 in 1000 (assuming 60% of her followers are US based, a very generous hedge) US Instagram accounts follow her.

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

You are so cute defending these poor innocent girls. You must be the real life of the party!

Like I said, your analogy was absurd...comparing a conversation between two individuals being even remotely similar. Now you are switching it to a comedian with an audience...that was very convenient.

Molly can fend for herself. I’m just in it for that small moment of self awareness youll show. Makes me smile!

Of course I changed my analogy. I’m trying to find where you draw the line with “sharing private conversations” or do you only hold marathoners to this standard?

Hey I get it. If I was working off of mental midgetry I'd be perplexed to and keep changing up those analogies to try and get one to fit!

How have you now arrived at 1 in 1,000? Earlier you were at 1 in 1,600ish and were operating under the assumption that all her followers must only be from the US.

AP5000 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Lol what. You realize that just makes it more likely that more people know here. 1 in 600 US Instagram accounts followers her! Even more if you factor in redundancy and then… surely you realize that a large fraction of people who know of her do not follow her on Instagram.

I think he might be off by closer to two orders of magnitude :) !

I think you need to take a statistics class. It doesn't mean that all all. It means fewer people have a medium for knowing who she is. This means fewer people know her. You are just reducing the denominator to make your ratio larger. Come on man.

So Instagram is the only way people can know about her? Explain this to me? You can argue that Instagram account holders are more likely to know her than non-holders but I fail to see how you get to “less than 1 in 10000 know her.”

If you’re going to make insane claims to justify your irrational hate… at least make the plausible before you plaster them on the internet for people to laugh at. Watch out!! I might post this “private conversation” on my Instagram to make my followers laugh!!

AP5000 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

God I thought innumeracy was confined to the COVID threads.

What fraction of her Instagram followers are international? Maybe 5% 10%? Scale my numbers accordingly. Not a big deal. The number of people that know her but don’t have Instagram far outweigh this.

Don’t get caught in the weeds look at the big picture here.

You said less than 1 in 10000 know her. Getting hard to defend if ~ 1 in 1000 (assuming 60% of her followers are US based, a very generous hedge) US Instagram accounts follow her.

How have you now arrived at 1 in 1,000? Earlier you were at 1 in 1,600ish and were operating under the assumption that all her followers must only be from the US.

Can you read my post please. Man this is fun.

I said 1 in 1000 US Instagram accounts follow her. Based on the these assumptions.

1) there are 130,000,000 US Instagram accounts (thanks other LRC poster for this datum)

2) Molly has 209,000 followers

3) 60% of her followers are US based, this is extremely generous to you, it’s probably more like 85-95%

Now we have 4th grade math.

130,000,000 / (209,000 * 0.6) = ~ 1000

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I think you need to take a statistics class. It doesn't mean that all all. It means fewer people have a medium for knowing who she is. This means fewer people know her. You are just reducing the denominator to make your ratio larger. Come on man.

So Instagram is the only way people can know about her? Explain this to me? You can argue that Instagram account holders are more likely to know her than non-holders but I fail to see how you get to “less than 1 in 10000 know her.”

If you’re going to make insane claims to justify your irrational hate… at least make the plausible before you plaster them on the internet for people to laugh at. Watch out!! I might post this “private conversation” on my Instagram to make my followers laugh!!

You really are a gem. You are the one that brought up Instagram. And your math really is terrible.

I'll spell it out for you using your numbers. You said if 60% of her followers are US-based. That means you take 60% of her 209,000 followers (.6 x 209,000 = 125,400). Now you need your good old fashioned denominator, which is this case you wanted the US total population of roughly 330,000,000. So 330,000,000 / 125,400 = 2,631. See how easy that was? See how that number goes UP when you were trying to manufacture it going down?

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

How have you now arrived at 1 in 1,000? Earlier you were at 1 in 1,600ish and were operating under the assumption that all her followers must only be from the US.

Can you read my post please. Man this is fun.

I said 1 in 1000 US Instagram accounts follow her. Based on the these assumptions.

1) there are 130,000,000 US Instagram accounts (thanks other LRC poster for this datum)

2) Molly has 209,000 followers

3) 60% of her followers are US based, this is extremely generous to you, it’s probably more like 85-95%

Now we have 4th grade math.

130,000,000 / (209,000 * 0.6) = ~ 1000

I did the math for you, but I don't think you can be helped. You are using the denominator of total Instagram accounts, my man.

AP5000 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Can you read my post please. Man this is fun.

I said 1 in 1000 US Instagram accounts follow her. Based on the these assumptions.

1) there are 130,000,000 US Instagram accounts (thanks other LRC poster for this datum)

2) Molly has 209,000 followers

3) 60% of her followers are US based, this is extremely generous to you, it’s probably more like 85-95%

Now we have 4th grade math.

130,000,000 / (209,000 * 0.6) = ~ 1000

I did the math for you, but I don't think you can be helped. You are using the denominator of total Instagram accounts, my man.

See I changed my total population based on insight from another poster. There are only 130M insta accounts in the US. That seems like a good denominator to figure out the “Molly awareness rate” in the US. You’re welcome to use the entire US population if you truly think that everyone in the US who knows her also followers her on Instagram. I disagree with that assumption.

Yeah, I feel like this would take us down a rabbit-hole.  I’m more concerned about you being picky about 1/1500 or 1/10000 than the actual number.  I do agree with AP5000 that merely following someone doesn’t necessarily mean that you know who they are. 

We’d have to agree on a measure of celebrity too.  290,000 followers does impress me as large.  But I’m guessing that she’s at her peak popularity right now and without another reason to be present in the news, she will fade.  As an example, Deena Kastor has some similarity to her, is much more accomplished, and only has 44k followers.  How many would she have had in 2005? (By the way, I don’t mean to diminish MS by comparison to Deena, as she is still early in her career).

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I did the math for you, but I don't think you can be helped. You are using the denominator of total Instagram accounts, my man.

See I changed my total population based on insight from another poster. There are only 130M insta accounts in the US. That seems like a good denominator to figure out the “Molly awareness rate” in the US. You’re welcome to use the entire US population if you truly think that everyone in the US who knows her also followers her on Instagram. I disagree with that assumption.

You picked the US population, not me. You keep changing the data to try and better suit your argument. You approach only shows approximately how many Instagram followers have heard of her.

Well yeah… as I got more representative data I changed my methods? Isn’t that what we should all do? I’m confused but your seeming insistence no one is allowed improve their models… ever.

My approach shows the fraction of Instagram users in the US that have heard of her. That’s the point? Merely an exercise to show you that she is much more well known than you assert. A very sizeable subset of the population (Instagram users) has decent knowledge of Molly! Please present you counter arguments rather than just saying my methodology might be 10% off lol.

Also back to the original point. Where do you draw the line with private conversations? My comedian example you are totally fine with. Molly’s post you are not. Yes there’s obviously a difference but what is the determining factor?